What if ... FSU's defense makes jump into top 50 or top 60 nationally?
As the 2021 preseason approaches, Warchant's staff will examine several different "What if?" scenarios regarding the Florida State football team.
These are not predictions that these events will happen, but a hypothetical analysis of how the Seminoles' season would be impacted if they did.
Next up in this series is a look at the Seminoles' defense.
One year ago, Florida State went into the first season of the Mike Norvell era with very high hopes about its defensive unit. The group featured a slew of returning starters and three of the 11 players on the preseason All-ACC first-team defense.
Other than cornerback Asante Samuel, nothing lived up to the hype.
There were a lot of factors that went into FSU finishing with a 3-6 record during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but a defense that struggled to stop the run and the pass was at the top of the list. The Seminoles ranked No. 107 nationally in yards allowed per game, No. 105 in scoring defense, 97th in rushing defense and 98th in passing defense.
Since that time, Norvell and defensive coordinator Adam Fuller have jumped into the transfer market with both feet, landing multiple players from other schools with starting experience. The hope is that influx of veteran talent, along with a more traditional offseason for Fuller to implement his schemes, will yield much better results in 2021.
And that is the premise of today's, "What if?"
What would it mean for the Seminoles if Fuller's defense leaps from one of the worst in the country to somewhere in the middle of the pack nationally? If they can just climb into the top 50 or 60?
What would it mean for the entire team?
Previous installments:
* What if ... Andrew Parchment produces for FSU like he did in 2019?
* What if ... Jermaine Johnson is an elite pass-rusher for FSU Football?
* What if ... McKenzie Milton plays for FSU like he did in 2017-18?
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What if ... FSU's defense makes a jump into the top 50 or top 60 nationally?
Answering this question are Warchant managing editor Ira Schoffel, senior writer Corey Clark and director of digital media Aslan Hajivandi.
COREY: I think if Florida State makes that big of a leap -- and, yes, it's sad that getting into the 50s nationally would be considered an enormous leap -- then I think you're talking about probably two extra wins in 2021. Not because being ranked, say No. 53, is a glorious achievement, but because it would mean Florida State has a competent defense that might actually force at least a few punts in the first halves of games.
And if you haven't given up 28 or 35 points in the first two quarters against every offense you face, then that means you're in more close games in the second half. Maybe your offense has a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter. Maybe they're not having to throw it every down because they're down by three or four scores. Maybe the opposing offense faces some real game pressure, and maybe, just maybe, you're able to get a few pivotal stops in the fourth quarter to win a game.
I don't think people understand just how bad FSU's defense was last year. It ranked 107th in the country, and that came WITHOUT having to play Florida and Clemson, the two best offenses on the schedule. Both of those teams would have put up 50 points and 600 yards last year, and FSU's numbers would have been even worse.
So, with that in mind, making a leap into the 50s would mean competence. It would mean average to mediocre, which would be a big step up from the horror show of 2020 on that side of the ball. Nobody is going to do cartwheels at FSU for average to mediocre -- this program is too proud for that -- but it's a start. And a couple of games where the opposing offense is held to, say, 26 points and 390 yards of offense, and has to punt five or six times, should lead to a couple more wins. And it would be a pretty sizeable step in the right direction.
ASLAN: Let’s flip this hypothetical on its head. I think we all agree this team will likely finish at, or marginally above, a .500 record in 2021. However, if you guarantee me a 58th-ranked defense, I don’t think it really affects that 5-7 to 7-5 range most people are bracing for. Though to be on the optimistic side, I guess I’d say I would be more firm in forecasting 7-5 if that were the case.
I'd like to say that kind of improvement would make a bowl appearance the floor for this team, but I'm not so sure. A 58th-ranked defense is still gonna have some stinkers. That was where North Carolina finished last year, and while no one would complain about trading seasons with them, they also had the No. 5 offense in the nation to carry the day. FSU isn't likely going to have that luxury.
The other question to me is if we see this improvement, is this 2015 Charles Kelly all over again? If this exercise's turnaround happens, then Fuller almost certainly would get an extension heading into 2022, the final year on his deal. You can’t part company with a guy that tunes things up that markedly. But you’re also just one shaky season away from reassessing his future -- which is where FSU found itself with Kelly after he got his long-term deal.
But hey, I’ll go out on a high note — if they’re in the 50-60 neighborhood, they’ll get a quality win in one of those final three games of the regular season.
IRA: I really think this almost has to happen for Florida State to get close to seven or eight wins. They at least have to get to around the No. 60 mark.
I think the offense is going to be improved this season. I think the quarterback play is going to be much better than we've seen in several years, and I think the offensive line will take another step. But as Aslan said, it's not going to be an offense that lights up scoreboards every week out. I just don't think there are enough dynamic skill players to make that happen.
But if the defense can just get to competent -- which really is the premise of this question -- then I think FSU can realistically get to seven or eight wins. If it doesn't happen, then even winning six games could be a chore.
I'm sure some people are wondering how any of this is even possible. How can a defense that lost Asante Samuel, Hamsah Nasirildeen, Marvin Wilson and two starting defensive ends -- both of whom went in the NFL Draft -- make a major improvement in one year?
Well, I really think you have to stop thinking about FSU's defensive struggles in 2020 as a talent or Xs and Os issue. I think it was primarily a lack of cohesiveness and trust between the players and coaches, brought on by having two coaching changes in rapid succession and the challenges of the pandemic.
This obviously is a big year for Fuller and this defense. If they can all get on the same page and play just sound fundamental football, the talent is there -- between the returning players, transfers and other newcomers -- to have a decent defense. And that could mean the difference in being either below .500 or above .500.
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Talk about this story with other Florida State sports fans in the Tribal Council.