Even at the midpoint of a college football season, stats can tell a story that will contradict or mislead. We have enough data on Florida State and Duke to draw conclusions on both teams — one woefully underperforming and one a plucky fighter that has rallied to win three games late (in the fourth quarter or overtime).
Florida State is 22-0 all-time against Duke in a series that was rarely close through the decades. Bobby Bowden even famously wrote an apology letter to Duke coach Fred Goldsmith after a 70-26 win in 1995.
If the Seminoles lose on Friday at Duke (7 p.m. on ESPN2), even as a 3-point road underdog, coach Mike Norvell might need to make some apologies of his own as FSU would be 1-6 for the first time since the year before Bowden arrived as head coach in 1975.
Setting history aside, it’s a matchup on Friday in Durham, N.C., with programs headed in seemingly different directions. Duke is 5-1 under first-year coach Manny Diaz, although it’s fair to question the strength of schedule and caliber of wins. FSU is 1-5 under Norvell, in his fifth year, and has looked completely out of sorts until signs of a turnaround and a spark from quarterback Brock Glenn in a 29-13 loss to Clemson.
The stats tell one heck of a story:
These could be considered the major categories when evaluating a football team, and Duke has an edge in each on offense and defense. And it's stunning how bad FSU is in some categories, including dead last in the FBS in rushing offense.
But there are some questions about the quality of Duke's wins. The Blue Devils should not be discredited from finishing the first half of their schedule at 5-1, although they have not beaten a ranked opponent. And they have faced just a few legitimate offenses in the top 50: UConn is 23rd (35.8) and Georgia Tech is 41st (32.9).
FSU's defense has faced No. 12 Clemson (41.0), No. 14 SMU (40.8), No. 41 GT (32.9) and No. 46 Memphis (31.2). While the effort, energy and communication from FSU's defense has been questioned, the Seminoles have been tested more often.
Removing a 26-3 season-opening win over FCS program Elon, and Duke's scoring defense against FBS opponents is 20.4. That offers a more apples-to-apples comparison as FSU has not yet faced its FCS opponent.
FSU's offense has also faced five top-50 scoring defenses: No. 13 Memphis (15.8), No. 20 Boston College (17.2), No. 25 California (17.8), No. 48 Georgia Tech (21.4) and No. 49 Clemson (21.7). Duke has faced three in No. 27 Northwestern (19.0), No. 48 GT (21.4) and No. 49 Connecticut (21.7).
This isn't to suggest Duke's schedule has been soft — it hasn't. But FSU's schedule has been tougher, which also isn't to excuse the results.
If the Seminoles have an edge it's in their red-zone defense (also factoring in field-goal blocks) plus Duke's inefficiency on third downs. Here are some more situational stats of note when comparing FSU and Duke:
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