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Five Takes - Signs of decline, shocking defensive numbers, tough decisions

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Take 1: Has FSU lived on smoke and mirrors since the 2013 season?

After losing to North Carolina on Saturday, Florida State finds itself ranked outside the top 20 for the first time since 2011. But that was a very different team with very different players. According to the Rivals.com rankings, there are a whopping five five-star and 19 four-star players currently on the Seminole defense. Despite all that talent on paper, the defense ranks No. 94 in total defense and No. 105 in scoring defense. Worse, FSU is just 5-5 versus FBS competition in its last 10 games.

Signs of this recent decline were evident a couple years ago, but some odd circumstances made it difficult to identify at the time. During the 2014-15 seasons, the Seminoles posted an impressive 23-4 record and continued their dominance over in-state rivals Florida and Miami. However, something wasn’t quite right back then, and in hindsight we probably should have seen the danger signs.

2014 Season: If you remember, this was the team that was supposed to be better than the 2013 squad that won the national championship. That group finished the year at 13-1, but it took near divine intervention to obtain that lofty record. FSU trailed 10 times during that season, but the ‘Noles were able to mount amazing comebacks in nine of those 10 games. Led by the top quarterback in college football, the ‘Noles erased three second-half double-digit deficits and turned them into improbable victories. In three games, it took near miracles (Louisville, Miami and Notre Dame) with fluky plays or bizarre circumstances for FSU to escape with a victory. If not for some incredibly lucky bounces, not to mention having Jameis Winston to bail the team out time and time again, this could have been a three- or four-loss season.

2015 Season: Florida State managed a respectable 10-3 record in what was supposed to a rebuilding season. However, most of those wins came against incredibly weak competition. The non-conference slate included Texas State, UT-Chattanooga and a USF team that was coming off a 4-8 season. The Seminoles also had a very favorable in-conference schedule with Wake Forest (1-7 ACC), Boston College (0-8 ACC), Syracuse (2-6 ACC) and N.C. State (2-5). For all intents and purposes, seven of the 10 wins were essentially guaranteed wins. For the other three, FSU caught Louisville early with Lamar Jackson making just his third career start, had to rally to defeat a Miami team that fired its coach, and the ‘Noles beat a down-and-out Florida team with no offense. Football stats guru Jeff Sagarin ranked FSU’s 2015 schedule the 51st toughest in 2015, and that was probably being generous. All in all, FSU was 1-2 against top-30 competition that season.Point is, if not for some incredible breaks and comebacks in 2014 and a very easy schedule in 2015, we might have seen FSU’s current struggles coming a mile away.

The other four takes for Warchant.com subscribers
2. Defense worse than numbers suggest
3. Time to bench for non-effort
4. Time for tough decisions
5. Weekly FSU stat wrap

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