FSU Football Matchup Analysis & Prediction: 'Noles at Clemson
The Florida State football team heads back on the road this week to take on Clemson, and the Seminoles are looking to make it four wins in a row following an 0-4 start to their 2021 campaign.
Fresh off a bye week, the Seminoles easily dispatched of UMass last Saturday in a 59-3 blowout, bringing their record to 3-4 on the year. FSU head coach Mike Norvell and the ’Noles now have some momentum rolling as they take on the Tigers at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
In their last meeting in 2019, Clemson rolled to a 28-0 halftime lead before easily finishing off FSU, 45-14. Outgained by 300 total yards, the 'Noles looked sorely outmatched as head coach Dabo Swinney pushed his record to 7-5 in the series.
After skipping last year's matchup because of a heated disagreement over COVID protocols -- one that both sides say is now behind them -- the ACC Atlantic Division foes are about to rekindle their rivalry. In the meantime, Clemson has slipped from a perennial top-five championship contender to an unranked squad fighting to stay afloat in the division race.
It’s been a tale of two units this season for the Tigers (4-3, 2-2 ACC), who boast the nation’s No. 3 scoring defense, allowing only 14.5 points per game. Offensively, they put up only 321 yards per contest, which ranks dead last in the conference.
After starting 2021 with a neutral-site, 10-3 loss to Georgia and a ho-hum win over FCS opponent South Carolina State, Clemson has been involved in five straight tightly contested ACC battles. The Tigers slipped past Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Boston College, and dropped road games at N.C. State and Pittsburgh.
Heading into this matchup, the Seminoles have a few lengthy streaks working against them. Going back to 2002, FSU is just 1-8 in Memorial Stadium (Death Valley), with the 2013 title team delivering the lone road win during that span. Clemson also has won the last five overall in the series, dating back to 2015. For the Tigers, they’ve won 31 straight home games going back to Nov. 12, 2016, when they lost to Pitt.
Here's our in-depth look at the positional matchups for both sides of the football and special teams, plus staff predictions for the Seminoles' eighth game of the season.
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During their three-game win streak, the Seminoles have streamlined their passing game to support a run-based attack under the direction of quarterback Jordan Travis. The results have been much more consistent in October, with Travis running the offense full-time as opposed to switching back and forth with McKenzie Milton during the first month of the season. FSU may still rank outside of the top 100 nationally in passing offense (No. 106 in yards per game), but over the past three games, Travis is completing 69 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and just one interception. And he’s run the ball for 312 yards and well over 7.0 yards per carry on the ground.
At wideout, FSU has stuck with four main options so far this season, and three of the four have several years of experience starting at the collegiate level. Junior Ontaria “Pokey” Wilson has made the most explosive plays of the group, and he leads the unit in receiving yards and touchdowns. Fellow junior Keyshawn Helton has emerged as much more of a consistent threat in recent weeks. While his playing time has been a little sporadic, Kansas transfer Andrew Parchment brings plenty of talent, with 192 yards and two touchdowns through the air so far in 2021. Then there’s true freshman Malik McClain, who took a pass near the line of scrimmage for 51 yards last week against UMass. For added depth, second-year wideouts Kentron Poitier and Darion Williamson round out the two-deep. Either one could play upwards of 20 snaps in a given game.
Florida State’s starter at tight end, Camm McDonald, continues to improve and leads the team with 18 catches this season. The junior has at least two catches in each of the past six games after being shut out in the opener. Backup Jordan Wilson has chipped in four grabs of his own, and third-teamer Preston Daniel is utilized mainly as a blocker.
For Clemson, the Tigers' four core defensive backs all have at least 27 tackles on the season and lead a pass defense that ranks fifth in the ACC. Upperclassmen and part-time starters last year at corner, Mario Goodrich and Andrew Booth Jr., are a solid tandem. With a true freshman at one safety spot in Andrew Mukuba, the Tigers counter him with sixth-year senior Nolan Turner. Their 216 yards allowed through the air per game slipped to 51st in the NCAA after taking on one of the nation’s best quarterbacks last week in Kenny Pickett of Pitt. Pickett completed 64 percent of his passes for 302 yards and two scores.
WINNER: CLEMSON
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