FSU Football Matchup Analysis & Prediction: 'Noles at North Carolina
The Florida State football team heads on the road this week to face North Carolina, a program the Seminoles upset last season as a highlight to their 2020 campaign.
FSU topped Syracuse last week, 33-30, on a game-winning field goal as time expired to improve to 1-4 on the year. Head coach Mike Norvell and the Seminoles take on UNC (3-2) in their second road game of the season at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN), looking to make it two wins in a row heading into their bye week.
FSU knocked off No. 5 and undefeated North Carolina last year, improbably jumping out to a 24-0 lead in the second quarter. UNC rallied, finishing with 558 yards of total offense, but couldn’t convert on its final drive and pushed head coach Mack Brown’s record to 0-10 against his alma mater. Brown, an FSU running back from 1971-1973, is in his 32nd season as a head coach and has 256 career wins.
This season, North Carolina has fallen off somewhat from top-10 expectations in August; the Tar Heels already have dropped two of their first four ACC games. UNC opened up at Virginia Tech in Week 1 and fell in a defensive struggle, 17-10. The Tar Heels rebounded to drub Georgia State, Virginia and Duke at home, but they also fell in Atlanta at Georgia Tech. Tech rumbled for 261 yards and four touchdowns on the ground in a 45-22 victory over UNC.
Behind the ACC’s top receiver (sophomore Josh Downs) and third-leading passer (junior Sam Howell), North Carolina has the nation’s No. 13 offense in yards per game. While FSU is outside of the top 100 nationally in sacks allowed, UNC is even worse. North Carolina has given up 22 sacks already this year, ranking 127th and only three spots away from last in the country.
One factor that could loom large is the home-away differential: FSU is 1-12 in its last 13 road games, while North Carolina is 9-1 in its last 10 home games.
Here's our in-depth look at the positional matchups for both sides of the football and special teams, plus staff predictions for the Seminoles' sixth game of the season.
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FSU finally found a winning formula at quarterback last week, and it was scrambler Jordan Travis who directed the offense against Syracuse, not UCF transfer McKenzie Milton (who started each of the past three games). Travis threw for 131 yards and two touchdowns, completing over 68 percent of his passes, and he ran for 113 more on 19 carries. He also orchestrated a clutch game-winning drive in the final minute. It appears Travis has the starting job for now, but Milton is always an option as well.
At wideout, FSU has started four different main options in the passing game so far this season. While running backs and tight ends caught 13 passes in the Syracuse win, the wide receivers combined for just four receptions for 35 yards and a score. Junior Ontaria "Pokey" Wilson didn’t have a catch last week, but he had five grabs against Louisville and turned in a 65-yard bomb at Wake Forest the game before that. In the loss to the Cards, Andrew Parchment easily had his best outing of the year with five catches for 86 yards and a score. The Kansas transfer had more receptions and yards in that game than in the first three combined. Veteran Keyshawn Helton got off to a slow start this season, but he caught a touchdown pass last week and is hopeful he can turn things around after a stellar preseason. True freshman Malik McClain has worked his way into the starting lineup and has seven catches this season. Second-year receivers Darion Williamson and Kentron Poitier bring depth and both have joined McClain as big targets pushing for playing time; Williamson played 18 snaps last week.
The focus at tight end has been on starter Camm McDonald and backup Jordan Wilson. McDonald had a strong outing last week and leads the way with 13 catches, while Wilson has chipped in four grabs of his own. Third-teamer Preston Daniel is utilized from time-to-time, mainly as a blocker.
As Corey Clark wrote earlier this week, UNC is loaded with talent in the defensive backfield, with four players who were four or five-star prospects coming out of high school. Safety Ja’Qurious Conley leads the team in tackles and has two picks this year. Auburn transfer Cam’Ron Kelly, Clemson transfer Kyler McMichael and former five-star Tony Grimes were all very highly recruited. At the other safety spot, senior Trey Morrison is a returning three-year starter. UNC could be without reserve corner and name-of-the-year candidate Storm Duck.
The numbers for the Carolina pass defense aren’t as strong as you might expect, however. UNC ranks 68th in the nation, allowing 225 passing yards per game and a 64-percent completion percentage. Two weeks ago, UNC struggled to contain Georgia Tech's Jeff Sims, who not only sliced their defense up with his legs but also completed 10 of 13 passes for 112 yards and a touchdown.
WINNER: NORTH CAROLINA
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