FSU men's basketball roster breakdown entering a critical offseason

It’s hard to overstate how important an offseason this will be for Florida State men’s basketball coach Leonard Hamilton.

Hamilton’s FSU legacy is already secure. He’s the winningest coach in FSU basketball history with 404 career wins. He’s one of only five coaches to amass more than 400 career wins at an ACC school.

And, yet, Hamilton, who will be 75 by the time next season begins, doesn’t want to be done.

For all the success he’s had with the Seminoles, including eight NCAA Tournament appearances (three more than any other coach in program history) and four Sweet 16 appearances (more than the rest of the coaches in FSU men’s basketball history combined), it’s clear he doesn’t want his historic FSU tenure to end on a sour note.

After FSU made the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight in three straight NCAA Tournaments between 2018 and 2021 – and would have also been expected to make a deep run in the 2020 NCAA Tournament, which was canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic – the last two seasons have been an unjust follow-up.

After FSU had five straight 20-win seasons (of full length) between 2015 and 2021, the last two seasons have wound up well off the NCAA Tournament bubble.

The just-finished 2022-23 season saw FSU set an unfortunate program record with 23 losses, the most ever by an FSU team in a single season.

While injuries have definitely played a role in derailing these last two seasons, Hamilton has also admitted that mistakes on his part have contributed to the program’s recent downward trend.

“I didn't calculate some things that happened. I didn't prepare for the unexpected and so I take full responsibility,” Hamilton said earlier this month. “Normally we've always tried to be ahead of the curve but I think as a staff, we’ve got to give more respect to youngsters that are making decisions when they think that it's best for them and not necessarily what's best as we see it.”

Candidly, Hamilton said he miscalculated some things. On this subject, he was referring both to being a bit slow to how heavily some other teams have pivoted to the transfer portal and the fact that he and his staff thought they would get a few players from last year’s team, namely John Butler and Malik Osborne, back in 2022-23.

When they didn’t return, it put FSU behind the eight ball. FSU did bring in two transfers ahead of this past season in Darin Green Jr. and Jaylan Gainey. Green was a critical offensive piece, but Gainey suffered an offseason knee injury which ended his season before it even began.

Hamilton now has a better idea of what needs to be done. He candidly said near the end of the season that he expects to add three or four players through the transfer portal this offseason.

The transfer portal opened for all of college basketball Monday, leading to what has become a customary rush of players looking for a new school and coaches looking for the right fit in their scheme.

With two years left on his contract, Hamilton surely understands how important an offseason this will be for him. Entering the offseason, here’s a breakdown of the FSU roster, who could be back, who could move on, who’s coming in and what needs FSU could address through the portal.

The fact that only one FSU player was honored on the team’s Senior Day this season, walk-on guard Cleveland Yates, means there are quite a few Seminoles with decisions to make in the coming weeks.

While there are a few other players who could theoretically decide to begin their professional careers overseas, this category likely contains just two players: Matthew Cleveland and Baba Miller.

Cleveland was definitely the best all-around player for the Seminoles this past season. Electing to return for his sophomore season after winning ACC Sixth Man of the Year as a freshman, he elevated his production in his second season. The 6-foot-7 guard led FSU in points per game (13.8) and was second in rebounds per game (7.4). He showed growth as a jump-shooter as a sophomore, hitting 35% of his threes (up from 18%) and shooting 69% from the free-throw line after he made 56% of them as a freshman.

Miller was lauded as a huge recruiting win for FSU when he became the final piece of the Seminoles’ sizable 2022 recruiting class last June. A 6-foot-11 prospect capable of hitting threes felt like a unicorn of sorts who could be a major boost to the FSU roster.

However, the wind got taken out of that slightly when it was announced shortly before the season began that an NCAA violation from before his recruitment to FSU would cause him to be suspended for the first 16 games of the season.

When Miller debuted, it seemed like he drastically missed the ramp-up in opponent difficulty when non-conference provides at the start of the season. As a Spaniard adapting to the American style of basketball, Miller never appeared truly comfortable. He had spurts where he flashed his potential, but it never consistently materialized with him averaging 4.3 points and 3.7 rebounds in 15 games over the back half of the season.

The problem for both Miller and Cleveland is that FSU’s struggles this season may have hindered their draft stock. Miller was discussed as a potential first-round pick when he committed to FSU, but he’s not on the numerous mock drafts or prospect big boards that were checked during the writing of this story.

It’s possible Miller is drafted on his potential alone. That size, athleticism and scoring combination could easily make at least one team fall in love with him. And it’s definitely possible as a European prospect that he was always going to be a one-and-done in college.

Cleveland’s growth in his second year with FSU surely improved his standing in the eyes of NBA teams. He also could theoretically find his way into the second round of the NBA Draft if he chose to declare.

However, both Miller and Cleveland could also benefit by running it back at FSU. A better and deeper supporting cast would only further showcase Cleveland. And a full offseason and season at FSU would surely help Miller blossom.

Those decisions lay in their hands, though. Embark on pro careers or come back to try and aid the FSU basketball revitalization.

One wild card that bears mentioning here: While Cleveland is eligible for NIL deals, Miller is not as an international prospect.

Some other players have slightly different decisions to make. They must decide if they will spend their next season at FSU or elsewhere.

While not likely to be NBA-bound at this point in time, some players like guards Caleb Mills and Jalen Warley and center Naheem McLeod will decide over the next few weeks what their immediate future will hold.

Mills, who transferred in from Houston ahead of the 2021-22 season, surely envisioned having more success than he has in his two seasons at FSU. Mills has been a consistent scorer for FSU, averaging 12.7 points per game his first season and 13.0 points per game this past season. He hasn’t been an extremely effective three-point shooter, but he attacks the basket well at times. He led FSU in assists this season (110) but also in turnovers (70). With the right pieces around him, Mills can be a complementary piece of the FSU offense. If he wants to return to do that is another question.

Warley was a highly-touted recruit in FSU’s 2021 class, the No. 38 overall player in the class according to Rivals’ rankings. After he adapted to the speed of the game as a freshman, Warley’s playing time and production took a notable step forward this season. He started 21 games, averaged 27.9 minutes per game and saw his scoring nearly double from 3.7 to 6.8 points as he grew more confident. Warley was also FSU’s best point guard option for much of the season, putting up a team-best assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.1 (105 to 50). Someone like Chandler Jackson may challenge for that starting point guard spot entering next season, though.

While Warley improved in year two, McLeod didn’t take the same leap. The 7-foot-4 big man actually saw his scoring decrease slightly from 4.5 points per game to 3.8. While he averaged 13.1 minutes per game, he played less than 10 minutes in five of his final six games.

While it may not have always seemed that way during the recently completed FSU basketball season, there is definitely a core of players that Hamilton can build around going forward that was already on the team.

That begins with a few freshmen who grew through the team’s struggles to show their potential in Cameron Corhen and Chandler Jackson.

Corhen, a 6-foot-10 freshman forward from Allen, Texas, wasn’t expected to step into an especially large role. A rash of injuries changed that timeline, though, forcing him into becoming a frequent contributor and, because of that, an impact freshman. Corhen’s 23.9 minutes per game this season were sixth-most on the FSU roster and most among all freshmen on the team.

He averaged 8.3 points and 3.5 rebounds, made over 50% of his shots and nearly 80% of his free throws. Eight of his 11 double-digit scoring games came in ACC play with Corhen scoring 18 points in the home win over Notre Dame, 15 points in the home loss to Virginia and 16 points in consecutive road games against NC State and Louisville.

While his rebounding numbers don’t blow you away, that’s an area where Corhen grew as the season progressed, capping his debut season off with a 12-point, 12-rebound double-double (the first of his career) in the ACC Tournament against Georgia Tech.

Jackson may have had an even bigger role as a freshman were it not for the wrist injury which kept him out for the start of the team’s preseason camp and limited him for the start of the regular season.

As he grew more healthy and more comfortable, his role increased over the course of the season. After playing 10-plus minutes in just five of FSU’s first 20 games, he averaged 15.6 minutes per game over the final 12 games of the season. He wasn’t the most productive scorer as a freshman, but he was immediately one of the team’s best point guard options with 38 assists to 21 turnovers and was also a tenacious defender who immediately bought in and connected with what Hamilton is looking for at that end of the court, finishing the season with 19 steals.

Other reasons to feel good about FSU’s turnaround potential are the expected returns of Gainey and Cam’Ron Fletcher from their season-ending knee injuries. Gainey was the two-time Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year at Brown and his absence was sorely felt, especially on the defensive end this season. Well-regarded as a shot blocker (125 career blocks in three seasons at Brown) and rebounder (6.1 rebounds per game over 2020 and 2022 seasons at Brown), he will now be back next season for the Seminoles with an extra year of eligibility.

So will Fletcher, who was taking the next step in his second season at FSU before suffering a season-ending knee injury late in FSU’s loss at Virginia on Dec. 3. Before his injury, Fletcher was averaging 10.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.

Hamilton said near the end of the season that both Gainey and Fletcher are doing well in their rehabilitation process. Both were as involved as possible with the team while recovering and both will likely be seen as leaders on next year’s FSU team.

Another upperclassman who should be back is UCF transfer Darin Green Jr. A lot was asked of Green in his first season with the Seminoles. He played a team-high 34.1 minutes per game and took a boatload of three-pointers – 250, or an average of nearly eight per game. The fact that Green hit 91 of those (36.4%) is a testament to his shooting ability considering the lack of separation he had on a great deal of those shot attempts.

While Green assuredly won’t play as many minutes next season as a senior, that will suit him better. As a more complementary piece on a better and deeper team, Green could be a much more efficient weapon as a perimeter shooter.

The other pieces to build around are a bit less certain. De’Ante Green was supposed to redshirt this past season after his senior season of high school basketball ended prematurely due to a torn ACL. Tom House was another freshman guard expected to redshirt. Both of them were thrust into action due to FSU’s lack of depth, playing sparingly in 24 and 30 games, respectively.

The sample sizes for both were too small to get a real read on them. They each could benefit from a full offseason entering redshirt freshman seasons that may be more indicative of what they will be able to contribute to FSU.

The one freshman that didn’t play at all this season was guard Jeremiah Bembry. Bembry missed the entirety of the 2022-23 season with an injury and will look to make his debut in some capacity next season.

As of now, the list of incoming players is remarkably small. FSU’s only high-school signee in its 2023 class is four-star small forward Taylor Bowen, the No. 32 player in the 2023 class out of Brewster Academy in New Hampshire.

FSU did recruit and attempt to add a few other players to its 2023 high-school class. However, in line with Hamilton’s comments, it definitely seems there was a point when he realized how heavily FSU was going to need to rely on transfer portal additions ahead of the 2023-24 season.

With Hamilton saying that FSU could add three or four players through the transfer portal to bolster its top-end talent and depth, that’s a testament to how active the FSU staff will likely be in the portal.

And with a reported number of over 800 players in the portal over the 48 hours since it opened – a number which doesn’t even include players on teams that are still playing in the NCAA Tournament/NIT – there will be plenty of players for the Seminoles to pursue.

In reality, much of what FSU pursues could hinge on who comes back. Hamilton has regularly encouraged reporters throughout his tenure to avoid trying to count his scholarships, but they are a factor when it comes to who will be brought onto the team.

Without knowing who is leaving, it’s fair to bet that each area of the team could very well be addressed. Further depth at the guard spots, on the wing and among big men could all be of use to the Seminoles entering the 2023 season.

The more precise details of the “who” these transfer additions will have to be. FSU cares more than many programs about finding the right fits, not just the best players, and so I’ve been told it won’t be an immediate process of rushing to address needs by any means.

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