FSU will face tougher defenses in back half of schedule beginning with Duke

Florida State reached the halfway point of the 2023 season on Saturday against Syracuse, a good time to look back at the quality of the defenses the Seminoles have faced thus far and what lies ahead. Stats don’t always tell the whole story, but we found a profound statistical difference between the defenses FSU faced in the first six games of the season and the defenses they will face on the back end, starting with a very good Duke defense.

Back in August we thought FSU would face the top two defenses in 2023 in the first four games of the season. Well, guess again and please, read on.

According to The Athletic’s “Stop Rate Ranking” the first six defenses the Seminoles faced this year have an average national stop rate ranking of 74.5, while the five Power 5 teams remaining on the schedule have a national stop rate ranking of 42.8. Even if you throw out the best and worst defenses of the front and back half of the schedule, the back half is still ranked 30 places better.

What is a stop rate? The Athletic defines it as: “A basic measurement of success: The percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs.”

To my way of thinking, the Stop Rate is a bottom-line measure of the defensive coordinator’s primary objective: get off the field with as little harm done as possible.

Here’s how the defenses Florida State faces this season have performed:

In an important ACC contest this weekend, Duke is ranked No. 3 in the Stop Rate Ranking, stopping opposing offenses 83.9 percent of the time and holding them to .93 points per drive.

It is hard to imagine Mike Elko’s defense can hold the FSU offense to 10 points but if Duke’s .93 points per drive holds up, that’s exactly what FSU would score on 11 possessions. The Blue Devils’ opponents have averaged 11 offensive drives per game, one drive less than the average. Could that be a testimony to the effectiveness of Duke’s running game, ranked 19th in both yards per rush (5.62) and per game (198.5)?

And to be fair, Duke’s stats have been earned against solid opponents, including Clemson, albeit in their first game under a new offensive coordinator, Notre Dame, NC State, Northwestern and Connecticut. Only Northwestern (14) and Notre Dame (21) scored more than one touchdown, so this will be a quality test for Jordan Travis and the Seminole offense.

While only three of the defenses FSU faced in the front half of the season have a stop rate under 60 percent, all five of the defenses the Seminoles play in the back half have a Stop Rate over 60 percent. Moreover, the defenses in the back half of the schedule have given up about .75 points less per drive, which means they have surrendered 8 to 9 points per game less than teams FSU has faced thus far.

Just in case you are wondering, the FSU defense is now ranked No. 18 in The Athletic’s Stop Rate Ranking, moving up from No. 41, after a convincing 41-3 win over Syracuse last week. Here’s the progress FSU’s defense has made over the past few weeks.