FSU will have hands full with potent UVA offense in ACC Semifinal play-in
The Florida State baseball team has had a massive outburst at the plate this season.
The Seminoles' .315 team batting average this season is the program's best since 2009. Their 103 home runs are tied for the most since 1999.
And yet in Friday's 11 a.m. ACC Tournament matchup that will determine who advances out of Pool D to the ACC Semifinals on Saturday, FSU (40-14) may have met its match.
No. 4 seed Virginia (41-14) is the only ACC team with a better batting average (.342) and more runs scored (539) than the Seminoles and one of only two ACC teams with more home runs this season (110).
The Cavaliers entered ACC Tournament week ranked second nationally in batting average, third in runs per game (9.7), tied for fourth nationally in doubles (136), fourth in slugging percentage (.588) and tied for 12th in home runs (109).
While FSU's offense has dramatically improved this season, the Cavaliers' is the class of the conference. That was very much on display Wednesday when UVA bludgeoned Georgia Tech in a 13-0 run-rule win that lasted just seven innings and saw the Cavaliers mash 16 hits and seven extra-base hits.
"Just dynamic offensive baseball. Threatening, dynamic, physical, athletic," FSU coach Link Jarrett said of Virginia's offense when asked after Tuesday's win over GT. "I have not gotten deep enough into them to tell you the tendencies of the hitters or the arms we might see. I just haven't gotten to that yet. But you know the identity of that group. They're extremely talented offensively and a lot of stuff coming at you on the mound. You have your hands full from start to finish."
In quite a few ways, Virginia's lineup resembles FSU's this season in terms of its depth. Four Cavalier hitters have 12+ home runs this season and eight have seven-plus home runs. However, UVA's depth of batting average even exceeds the Seminoles', which has been impressive in its own right.
Of the 11 Virginia batters with 114+ at-bats this season, nine of them are hitting above .300. Center fielder Bobby Whalen leads that charge with a .400 average on the season, but second baseman Henry Godbout (.379) is not far behind.
Like FSU, even Virginia's sluggers have hit for average this season. Jacob Ference, Casey Saucke and Henry Ford are all hitting .349 or better with 12+ home runs entering Friday's matchup vs. FSU.
"I can tell you I’ve been impressed with (the offensive approach) all year. From top to bottom, it’s a relentless offensive approach, a lot of guys that can do really, really special things..." UVA head coach Brian O'Connor said Wednesday. "You see some of the home runs and doubles and things with two strikes is a staple of our program that we’ve been very proud of for a long time, that our guys don’t give at-bats away. They certainly change their approach with two strikes and fight for the team. And today was a terrific example of that.”
Now, the UVA offense is not impervious to being stopped. When tasked with facing Wake Forest ace Chase Burns earlier this season, the Cavaliers managed just one run on two hits over seven innings, striking out 13 times.
FSU ace Jamie Arnold (9-3, 2.40 ERA) was right there with Burns for much of the season in contention for ACC Pitcher of the Year before coming up short in the final weeks. He's got a better earned run average than Burns (2.46) and had far and away the second-most strikeouts by an ACC pitcher this season (125).
While Arnold hasn't yet been announced as FSU's starter vs. Virginia on Friday, the timing would line up. He got a nine-pitch save Tuesday vs. GT on his bullpen day and last started eight days prior vs. GT. Starting Friday would also line him up to start either the first or second game of FSU's NCAA regional next weekend.
Virginia, on the other hand, elected to throw its ace, Evan Blanco (7-3, 3.50 ERA), Wednesday vs. Georgia Tech. While he delivered six shutout innings, he threw 80 pitches, deeming him out for the matchup against the Seminoles.
The Cavaliers do not have a certain No. 2 starter behind Blanco. He's started 15 games this season and no other Virginia pitcher has made more than seven starts.
Additionally, Virginia's pitching staff has not been up to snuff with its offense this season. The Cavaliers rank seventh in the ACC in ERA this season (5.59), nearly a full run worse than FSU's 4.73 ERA.
All that should make for quite an intriguing matchup Friday (11 a.m. on ACC Network) at Truist Field in Charlotte. The spot in the semifinals that will be on the line is important, but even more important could be the NCAA Tournament implications.
Both FSU and UVA enter Friday right on the bubble to be a top-eight national seed whose entire path to the College World Series goes through home games. While we won't know for sure until the field of 64 teams is announced Monday, it's entirely possible the winner of Friday's game earns a top-eight seed while the loser ends up just a few spots outside the top eight.
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