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Published Dec 1, 2020
Ham-alytics: 3 Key Returners for FSU Basketball in 2020-21
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Tom Lang  •  TheOsceola
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The year 2020 has been one of waiting, so Florida State fans can call it on-brand that the reigning ACC champions are the last team in the conference to get their basketball season under way.

The anticipation ends Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET as Florida State and UNF tip off inside the Donald L. Tucker Center.

This week in Ham-alytics, we rattle off one more round of previews for some of Florida State’s most critical returning pieces. Today, we will use Synergy Sports’ insights to spotlight Malik Osborne, RaiQuan Gray and Anthony Polite.

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Malik Osborne

In his first year as a Seminole, Rice transfer Malik Osborne immediately waded into new waters. Experience and injury issues plagued the ‘Noles in the post, forcing Osborne to start the 2019-20 season closer to the basket than he was previously accustomed. What resulted was a learning curve year for a gifted hybrid player who played primarily guard in his youth.

“We played him a lot at the 5 (center),” Hamilton told reporters on Monday. “But his strength is his jump shooting.”

The heat map below agrees with Hamilton. Though his shot count isn’t very high, Osborne’s ability to hit spot-up jumpers suggests significant growth potential for 2020-21.

For a player forced into a post role, the perimeter shooting breakdown is impressive. But how exactly did Osborne get to these spots on the floor? According to Synergy, one way is in the screen game, specifically in “Pick and Pop” situations.

What is the “Pick and Pop”? It’s when the screener in a pick-and-roll releases from the point of contact to an open spot for a kick-out jumper. Ideally, the screener/shooter is capable of extending beyond the three-point line for maximum impact. Osborne proved to be up to the task last year.

In 26 “Pick and Pop” possessions, Synergy’s rating (against the nationwide average) landed Osborne in the “Excellent” category. With sophomore Balsa Koprivica poised to draw more minutes in the post, Osborne may be freed up to work with Seminole guards more often in this facet of the game.

Conversely, if the Seminoles play a smaller lineup with Osborne matching opponents’ big men, the 6-foot-9 forward will also pull away post defenders with his ability to hit jumpers from distance. This “gravity” effect can open up driving and passing lanes for the guards and wings.


RaiQuan Gray

Now entering his fourth year in the program (third in the rotation), redshirt junior RaiQuan Gray will be leaned upon for more offensive consistency. As the two Synergy maps will show, Gray’s offensive efficiency regressed from his redshirt freshman season to his redshirt sophomore season.

2018-19

2019-20

Gray’s offensive profile can be a headscratcher at times. A good example: per Synergy’s 2019-20 data, Gray put up 1.20 points per possession while guarded (elite, by their metrics) and just .55 points per possession while unguarded (poor).

Thankfully for Gray, there are two ends of the court. Synergy’s data loved his game on defense. In 121 possessions across all types of offensive looks, Gray finished in the top 10 percent of all defenders in the NCAA, allowing just 29 percent shooting from the field and .67 points per possession. Gray also forced a turnover in 11.6 percent of those possessions, rating “Excellent” against both jump shots and attempts around the basket.

Anthony Polite

Also beginning his redshirt junior season, Anthony Polite may be remembered for streaky perimeter shooting and on-the-ball defending. Synergy’s shot map shows a player capable of making defenses pay from the corners -- three-point areas adored by analytics.

Synergy says Polite, as a spot-up shooter, was just above the average player across college basketball (51st percentile) last season. Where Polite was at his best was in transition. In 46 transition possessions, Polite produced 50 points, good enough to be in the top 35 percent of all players in the country.

How could Polite's transition numbers improve in 2020-21? Through his defense.

In ACC play last season, Polite generated 20 steals, good enough for third on the team. He did so despite playing 10 fewer minutes per game than team leaders Trent Forrest (44) and Devin Vassell (21). If he holds that rate of defensive production, Polite will be his own best friend in creating transition opportunities.

A specific area of Polite's defense to watch in 2020-21 is in isolation. According to Synergy, Polite was in the top 2 percent of all defenders in the country when defending his man one-on-one. The reason this isn't the lead note in his profile is possession count. The sample size was limited to just 25 possessions. Whether that was partly a product of time on the floor, reputation or a combination of the two remains to be seen.

Next Week

Pandemic permitting, next week's Ham-alytics will take a look at the 'Noles' ACC-Big Ten opponent, Indiana, and the home game against Florida the following weekend.

Let the opponent scouting begin! Enjoy the season opener, everyone.

*FROM LAST WEEK: Introducing Ham-alytics: Advanced Stats on FSU Basketball

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