Ham-alytics: A return to hooping for FSU, and a preview of N.C. State

You didn’t imagine the FSU basketball season, friends. It does indeed exist, and finally for Florida State, it will resume Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. as the Seminoles (5-2, 1-1 ACC) end a COVID hiatus with a home tilt against N.C. State (6-3, 2-2) on the ACC Network.

Whether rest or rust prevails remains to be seen, but if the Wolfpack’s results in ACC play are any indication, Florida State is in for a closely contested game. Of their four conference games to date, the ‘Pack have netted two three-point wins, a four-point overtime loss and, most recently, a five-point home loss to Miami.

Today’s Ham-alytics, powered by the experts at Synergy Sports, will provide snapshots of N.C. State’s full-season offensive and defensive efficiency and provide a more surgical view of the Wolfpack's identity in ACC play.

One constraint to consider: Things started swimmingly for the Wolfpack in non-conference action as they netted a trio of 30-point wins to open the season. This is important as those results account for a third of the ‘Pack’s data. Let’s dive in.

Don't miss out on our great FSU sports coverage. Get your 30-day FREE trial!

Overall: 96th -- 738 possessions, .939 points/possession

Half-court vs. Man-to-Man Defense: 122nd -- 466 possessions, .893 points/possession

Half-court vs. Zone: 41st -- 137 possessions, 1.124 points/possession

Transition Offense: 278th -- 135 possessions, .911 points/possession

Against Press: 122nd -- 49 possessions, .878 points/possession

Adjusted Tempo: 153rd* -- 69.6 possessions/40 minutes *per Kenpom.com

OBSERVATIONS

Despite poor efficiency in transition, the Wolfpack have amassed formidable numbers overall on offense. The reason? They have produced big-time in the half court. If Florida State was thinking about using some zone to adjust to its recent switching issues, perhaps now is not the time against a ‘Pack offense that ranks in the top 50 nationally against zone looks.

In terms of play usage, N.C. State attacks in the half court using primarily the pick-and-roll (24.2 percent of the time) and spot-up jumpers (23.3 percent). Synergy efficiency ratings are high in the former category and below average in the latter.

Within the pick-and-roll game, if the ball handler is making the play, the Wolfpack are dominating the competition. Four ‘Pack players rank inside the top 30 percent of Division-I, led by senior guard Devon Daniels’ 67 such possessions. Daniels (15.9 PPG) runs a balanced offensive attack that is 49th in the country in shot-making off the dribble. Florida State defenders will have to fight through screens in order to avoid paying a steep price Wednesday night.

Overall: 49th -- 732 possessions, .806 points/possession

Half-court, Man-to-Man: 46th -- 600 possessions, .768 points/possession

Half-court, Zone: N/R – Only seven such possessions this season

Transition Defense: 144th -- 128 possessions, .953 points/possession

Press Defense: 64th -- 174 possessions, .678 points/possession

OBSERVATIONS

The numbers read impressively for N.C. State across the board. The Wolfpack handle business both in the half court – playing exclusively man-to-man – and with the press (which they run 28.8 percent of the time).

Daniels and forward Jericole Hellems both sit in Synergy’s top 10 percent of all defenders in Division-I. Through the Jan. 9 game at Miami, Daniels yielded just .418 points per possession in his 67 chances as a defender, the 89th best mark in the country.

What’s interesting is how the ACC numbers argue with Synergy’s defensive grades. Though Synergy rates the Wolfpack “Excellent” in terms of points per possession, conference opponents have shot 45.5 percent from the field against them -- a level of damage that would rank N.C. State a dubious 263rd in Division-I.

Where have the Wolfpack been especially strong and weak in their four conference games? Let's head to the Synergy heat maps for a look.

N.C. State Offense

The Wolfpack have been significantly better than the national average (gray numbers) around the basket. The number one player to watch in this area is senior D.J. Funderburk. The 6-foot-10 forward is 15-for-18 in close, accounting for nearly a quarter of 'Pack baskets at the rim in ACC play.

N.C. State's success straight away makes sense: Synergy's metrics say the 'Pack are excellent at the pick-and-roll and shooting off the dribble. Those two ingredients correctly point to the top of the key as an area of strength. Watch for FSU's ability to contest jumpers across the key.

N.C. State Defense

The ACC defensive map is a curious one from Florida State's perspective. The Seminoles have been so-so offensively around the rim (a place the Wolfpack are weak) and pretty solid from the wings (where the 'Pack perform fairly well).

Judging by the numbers, N.C. State's defense has a hard time contesting baseline looks from corner to corner. Florida State is at its best along the baseline to the basket's left, shooting a robust 24-of-50 from the three zones combined.

---------------------------

Discuss the game with fans on Warchant's Seminole Hoops message board