“The Seminoles play an ACC Tournament Game, Take Three… Action!”

For the second time in 364 days, Florida State woke up Thursday morning in Greensboro, N.C., expecting to play a conference tournament game. And for the second time, COVID-19 had other ideas.

At least the Seminoles weren’t teased with a warmup line in 2021.

So it is that Duke’s season – and postseason – is over, and the ‘Noles moved on to the ACC Tournament semifinals without playing a single possession. In their way Friday (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): North Carolina, which upended Virginia Tech, 81-73, Thursday night on the strength of a serious glass-crashing second half.

What can Ham-alytics bring to the table for UNC-FSU III? Today, we’ll take a look at North Carolina’s games since the Tar Heels handled Florida State in Chapel Hill, provide a detailed look into the first two games of the ‘Noles-Heels season series and more.

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North Carolina has won three of four, with its only stumble a Big Monday loss at Syracuse. The Heels closed out their regular season with an 18-point rout of Duke, followed by a laugher over Notre Dame and the aforementioned win over the Hokies.

Here is Synergy’s offensive heat map for North Carolina since its win over the Seminoles on Feb. 27:

In terms of perimeter hot spots, the Tar Heels have been much better to the basket’s right, both on the wing and in the corner. The damage around the basket is apparent too. But a word of caution: This is where the heat map can be a bit sneaky if not paired with game scouts.

If you watched how the Heels closed out Virginia Tech on Thursday, it was clear there was no bad perimeter look in the second half. The reason? Sensing exhaustion from the Hokies, Roy Williams rotated a slew of big bodies who were fresh enough to clean up seemingly every errant shot. In the game’s defining moments, North Carolina enjoyed the freedom of hoisting jumpers and runners at the rim, with the worst-case scenario being a second-chance look.

To that end, in their last four games, the Tar Heels have missed 140 shots from the field. They have rebounded 74 of those misses – an unreal 52.9 percent clip on the offensive glass. For the Seminoles on Friday night, the possession is not over until they pay the price to secure a Carolina miss.

Now it’s time to take a look at this season’s two meetings between Florida State and North Carolina.

Here is how North Carolina’s offense fared in its 82-75 loss in Tallahassee:

And this is what the Heels produced in their 78-70 win in Chapel Hill:

Taken together, the two games:

In one of the more stunning heat maps of the season, look at the consistent work the Seminoles have done around the basket. North Carolina has been largely stymied near the rim in terms of clean two-point attempts.

Once again from the stats-can-be-misleading department: Friday’s game will be determined, in part, by whether or not the ‘Noles can be sharp in contesting shots in-close. Though North Carolina has not been efficient at the basket in the teams’ two meetings, the Heels did go to the line 30 times in their win over Florida State.

While the maps above may have yielded a surprise or two, the FSU heat maps will probably play out a tad more predictably. Here is how the Seminoles shot it in their win over North Carolina:

And here is their performance in Chapel Hill:

Taken together:

The efficiency with which Florida State performed in Tallahassee was truly remarkable. Without freshman Scottie Barnes, the Seminoles hit perimeter looks, shots in tight and converted on 26 of 27 free throws.

Then there was the road game. For those new to Ham-alytics, gold is not good. The performance was the continuation of a troubling road trend.

Clear differences around the rim and along the perimeter plagued the 'Noles in Chapel Hill. While most eyes will be watching how FSU shoots from distance, the battle in the paint will be critical in its own right.

Leading the charge for North Carolina in its the last four games is 6-foot-10 Armando Bacot. Since the win over Florida State, the sophomore has averaged a robust 18.3 points and 11.8 rebounds per game (6.3 offensive rebounds per game).

Though Florida State has done a solid job of holding down Bacot in the teams' two previous meetings (7.5 points, 4.5 rebounds), the Virginia native seems to be finding his form.

His shot chart isn't very exciting, but as Synergy shows, the Seminoles need to be ready to clash around the rim. Here is what Bacot has done over his last four games:

Stay connected with Warchant.com for continuing ACC Tournament coverage from Greensboro.

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