Florida State's first-round NCAA Tournament game was ugly at times, there’s no way around that.
But the lights are still on at Ham-alytics HQ, and that means the Seminoles are still playing basketball in 2021. As we all shake off the 64-54 win over UNC-Greensboro, eyes turn to the Round of 32.
Today’s edition of Ham-alytics gets you set for tonight's matchup against Colorado (7:45 p.m. ET, TBS). The Buffaloes were white-hot from long range Saturday afternoon in their 96-73 romp of 12th-seeded Georgetown, hitting on 16 of 25 3-point shots. But is that who they really are all the time?
Let’s get to it.
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At a Glance: Colorado
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OFFENSE - FAST FACTS
Overall: 30th (2,314 possessions, 0.980 points per possession)
Half-court vs Man-to-Man: 17th (1,713 possessions, 0.984 points per possession)
Half-court vs Zone: 191st (256 possessions, 0.906 points per possession)
Transition Offense: 175th (345 possessions, 1.012 points per possession)
Against Press: 52nd (128 possessions, .977 points per possession)
Adjusted Tempo*: 282nd (66.3 possessions/40 minutes) *per KenPom.com
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DEFENSE - FAST FACTS
Overall: 90th (2,297 possessions, 0.852 points per possession)
Half-court, Man-to-Man: 177th (2,013 possessions, 0.859 points per possession)
Half-court, Zone: N/A (55 possessions, .709 points per possession)
Transition Defense: 6th (229 possessions, .821 points per possession)
Press Defense: 236th (96 possessions, 0.927 points per possession)
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OBSERVATIONS
* It is extremely important to contest perimeter shots against Colorado. For the season, the Buffaloes are sixth nationally in unguarded catch-and-shoot opportunities; only Baylor is better among NCAA Tournament teams. Florida State’s defensive rotations will be key.
* The top three players on Colorado’s roster – in terms of offensive usage – are guard McKinliey Wright IV (20.2 percent of possessions), forward Jeriah Horne (13.6) and forward Evan Battey (13.6). All rate among Synergy’s top 20 percent of Division-I in offensive efficiency.
* Though the Buffaloes are a man-to-man defensive team (97.2 percent of possessions), efficiency this season has been middling. Defensive strong-suits include transition (99th percentile), isolation (86th) and against the pick-and-roll (73rd). Weaknesses include the post (16th percentile), screen actions (27th) and spot-up jumpers (49th).
Heat Maps: Colorado
Before we get to the season-long picture of Colorado's offense, here is what the Buffaloes did against Georgetown in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament.
FSU certainly hopes Colorado got that incredible shooting performance out of its system. And now the offensive heat map for the full season:
Defensive map:
OBSERVATIONS
* On offense, there is real balance from the perimeter in both attempts and productivity. Post production is marginally better than the national average (gray box), but there is plenty to like for Colorado in terms of 6- to 10-foot looks.
* Defensively, Colorado does a decent job of defending corner 3s and looks from above the key. M.J. Walker is 5 for his last 21 from long distance away from Tallahassee. As a player who likes the left wing, these numbers may provide a ray of hope. Which brings us to our next point ...
The Last Five: Away from Tallahassee
A few weeks back, we examined the question of Florida State's road woes in this very feature. Here is a not-so flattering updated look at the Seminoles' offense in the team's last five games away from home:
The 0-for-9 shooting performance from 3-point range on Saturday did not help the cause from the perimeter. Florida State is shooting at a 29.6-percent clip from beyond the arc in its last five road or neutral-site games.
More than numbers, that lack of perimeter success clearly was in the Seminoles' heads in the second half of their NCAA Tournament opener. If Ham-alytics is to live on for a Sweet Sixteen edition, the above numbers will have to change tonight.
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