9/24/2022 football Edit

Keys to an FSU victory over Boston College, predictions

Patrick Burnham • TheOsceola

Football/Recruiting Analyst

Florida State returns home on Saturday night as a three-score favorite over Boston College. A win would keep FSU's perfect record intact and give it even more momentum and confidence as it prepares for arguably the toughest stretch of its schedule with games against Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson and Miami coming in four of the next five weeks. It will have a decided home field advantage with a capacity crowd expected for the 8 p.m. kickoff at Doak Campbell Stadium. The game will be broadcast by the ACC Network.

The Osceola staff offers their keys to an FSU victory over Boston College.

Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz

Put Me in Coach: The Seminoles are a 17- point favorite over Boston College, so the key to the game will be Mike Norvell's approach to making Florida State a better team for the 2022 season. Does he choose to start Jordan Travis and play his best 11 on both sides of the ball to give the team the best chance to win a fourth-straight game and gain the momentum that comes with it? Or will he choose to, or have to, rest his wounded starters and develop his reserves, which would pay dividends later in the year. This is the primary question in determining how this game will play out.

Home Field Advantage: Another key will be how the team reacts to a highly energized home crowd. This team experienced similar crowds against Notre Dame and Miami last year, which propelled them to overtime against ND and a win over the Canes.

Prediction: FSU 34, BC 21

Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva

Flowers can't Bloom: Cover and tackle Zay Flowers. If he lines up on the outside, put a safety over the top. If he's in the slot, FSU needs to bracket him with a safety and a linebacker or nickel-combo coverage. That means we need to pressure and stop the run with base fronts.

Win the LOS: Control the game up front. The offensive and defensive lines need to be dominant from the start of this game. It is the first time in a long time that FSU will have a significant advantage.

Prediction: Pain

Osceola Editor Bob Ferrante

Run the ball: Regardless of who starts at quarterback at Florida State, the Seminoles' identity is to run the ball. Trey Benson, Treshaun Ward and Lawrance Toafili can help the Seminoles put a game away. FSU is off to its best start on the ground in the first three games of a season in a decade with 727 rushing yards. Look for that to continue on Saturday against a BC defense that is 76th in the nation, allowing 148.3 rushing yards per game.

Defend the pass: There aren't many times FSU will face a BC offense this bad at running the ball, a result of multiple offensive line injuries. But BC is still dangerous through the air with Phil Jurkovec, who could be a high draft pick in 2023, as well as Fort Lauderdale native Zay Flowers. The Jurkovec-Flowers connection is the only real scenario in which the Eagles can give FSU trouble, so the Seminoles will need to put pressure on the quarterback and roll a safety over to double Flowers.

Prediction: FSU 27, BC 17

Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler

Game Control: FSU is a heavy favorite, the biggest favorite it has been in an ACC game in years. BC is clearly outmatched, especially with the state of its offensive line and the biggest thing FSU can do to ensure the comfortable victory is to flex its superiority from the opening kickoff. One thing that could give a team that hasn't had a ton of success some confidence is allowing the Eagles to hang around. If FSU quickly builds an early lead, it's hard to see Boston College being able to keep up, especially in front of a capacity crowd at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Complete Game: Through two games against Power 5 competition, we haven't yet seen a complete game from the FSU defense. We've seen glimpses of the potential each aspect of the defense could be but haven't yet seen a four-quarter display of that against LSU or Louisville. BC is the first of a few FBS opponents on the schedule this season where it seems that FSU has a distinct talent advantage. With that, I'd like to see a more all-around impressive showing from the defense. We've seen it in spurts, but it would be encouraging to see it over a longer span before the tough stretch that lies ahead against Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson.

Prediction: FSU 34, BC 10

Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham

Phil the Pressure: BC quarterback Phil Jurkovec isn't getting much help from anyone not named Zay Flowers. He was visibly frustrated by the lack of protection he was given in the Eagles game vs. Virginia Tech two weeks ago where he constantly picking himself up off the ground on seemingly every play. He and Flowers are the only constant for BC this season. Bringing pressure early and being successful at making Jurkovec feel the heat will keep him off rhythm and possibly add to he and his team's frustration.

Fast Start/Quick Game: There are questions around the health of several key players as FSU enters this game. I think it is likely that Jordan Travis will play, and a report early Saturday by ESPN confirmed that. FSU needs to run the ball early and often. The offense is most effective when the run game clicks and there is nothing that says it can't run the ball vs. BC. That being said, the Noles have found some playmakers at wide receiver this season that it hasn't had in several seasons. Don't be surprised to see some deep shots early to try and come up with explosive plays that lead to scores and allow it to take an early lead. If FSU can get up a couple of scores early, it can then manipulate the clock with its running and short perimeter passing game. A decisive lead would allow Norvell and his staff the opportunity to get some backups in the game and rest some of its bigger contributors as it gets ready to head into the teeth of its schedule.