9/15/2023 football Edit

Keys to an FSU win over Boston College

With rain and wind in the forecast, how well FSU runs the ball is among the biggest keys to a win. (Mike Olivella)

Patrick Burnham • TheOsceola

Football/Recruiting Analyst

Florida State (2-0) heads to Boston College (1-1) to begin its conference schedule as the No. 3 team in the country. FSU enters the game as an almost four-touchdown favorite but may also have to battle Mother Nature and the remnants of Hurricane Lee in addition to the Eagles.

The Osceola staff takes a look at we think are the keys to FSU avoiding an upset and moving to 3-0 with a highly anticipated matchup at Clemson just one week away.

Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz

Two of the three most important keys to a Florida State win over Boston College are already in the rearview mirror: recruiting and preparation. The third key — execution — will be decided Saturday.

Recruiting has brought more talented players to Tallahassee, and they have played, thus far, as a better team. You might worry about a team’s practice focus following a 66-13 victory over Southern Miss, or with a natural disturbance roaring north towards Boston, or with ACC-rival Clemson just a week away, but FSU’s practices were business as usual this week. With those two keys in the bank, the remaining key is execution.

It’s no secret FSU is projected to win this game. Oddshark.com, a betting-odds aggregator, has the Noles as a 28-point favorite with the over-under at 55. as of Friday

So what other keys are there that could equalize FSU's advantage in talent?

The Eagles have designated this as “Red Bandana Game” in honor of Welles Crowther, BC class of ’99, a lacrosse player who died while saving as many as a dozen lives in the Twin Towers on 9/11. Those who have been to Chestnut Hill for a Bandana Game know it really does churn the crowd up. In fact, the last time the Eagles beat FSU was in a Bandana game in 2017, a 37-7 blowout. But how many Eagle fans will show up to get churned up during what they are calling a Nor’Easter without snow?

So, the X factor could be the elements.

Chestnut Hill was expected to see and inch or two of rain on Friday and Saturday morning, dissipating in the afternoon. The Eagles play on a modern Astro Turf field, which provides better drainage than a turf field, so the Seminoles should expect pretty-clean footing. The projection that’s all over the map is wind. Depending on the forecast you like, it could be from a steady 5 to 10 mph all the way up to 40 mph tropical wind gusts, which would render both teams more one dimensional than they would like to be.

I like FSU’s defensive front in a one-dimensional game and would expect them to hold the Eagles under 14. I was going to say 10 but if the winds gusting above 20 mph, you’ll see teams going for it on fourth down. I also like FSU’s offense to establish the run and pick their spots with RPO passes.

Even if it’s nasty, I like FSU’s offense, which has been built to be comfortable in the uncomfortable, to cover the spread and I don’t like BC’s chances of scoring enough to cover the over.

Prediction: FSU 35, BC 7

Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva

Choices, Choices: How will FSU defensive coordinator Adam Fuller choose to play the run-heavy BC offense. BC is atypical in that they will line up on heavy sets with multiple tight ends and even two backs, which is counter to the trend in modern college football. QB Thomas Castellanos is BC's biggest run threat through two games in what is basically a wildcat offense. FSU's base defense is typically a 4-2-5 nickel but how will FSU line up vs heavy looks? Will it be a 4-3 with Bethune, Deloach and Lundy in the game at the same time? Can FSU's LB depth sustain a whole game of three-linebacker defense vs a determined ground-and-pound offense? Or will FSU get an 8/9 in the box look by going five defensive lineman, two linebackers and walking a safety in the box? Probably a little of both. How FSU lines up vs BC's offense will be key.

Early Downs: As we anticipate a blustery day, passing the ball will be challenging for both teams. BC hasn't demonstrated the ability to throw the ball all that well vs. NIU or Holy Cross so even on a good day it would be a challenge for them. From the FSU perspective, utilizing the talent at the skill positions and generating chunk plays through the passing game is a big part of FSU's offensive identity. But if throwing downfield is the challenge it appears it will be, then early down success will be key for both sides of the ball. FSU's defense having success on first and second down, forcing BC into third-and-long situations, will set them up for success vs. an offense that struggles with third-and-long. Conversely, FSU offensively staying on schedule and getting to manageable third- or fourth-down situations will determine success in sustaining drives and scoring TDs. Nobody makes an extra point.

Prediction: FSU 36, BC 6

Osceola Managing Editor Bob Ferrante

One if by land, two-TE: With the expectation of wind and rain from Hurricane Lee, Florida State should look to go with two-TE sets and dictate terms on the ground. Every coach wants to (cliche alert) establish the run, but the weather conditions Saturday present very unusual circumstances. Rain is one thing. Wind and rain is another. Jordan Travis will still find success with short and intermediate passes, but FSU has shown in the second half against LSU and vs. Southern Miss that it can dominate on the ground. And BC has given up a combined 453 rushing yards in a loss to Northern Illinois and a win over FCS Holy Cross.

Roll with it, roll with the backups: Many of the Seminoles will loathe the conditions. There will likely be frustration. There will undoubtedly be turnovers. Talent and cooler heads will prevail. Make the best of it for a few hours. Get a big lead and get the backups in the game. There will be a bigger game next week at Clemson.

Prediction: FSU 38, BC 10

Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler

Run the ball: The nasty weather that could be affecting the greater Boston area Saturday afternoon due to Hurricane Lee could be a bit of an equalizer between FSU and its vastly-less-talented opponent. Throwing the ball in intense winds would be a challenge and could largely negate FSU's downfield passing game with Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. The good news for FSU is that:

1) Mike Norvell has proven to be quite adaptable in his play calling

2) FSU's running back room is exceptionally talented and deep

3) Boston College is coming off a game where it allowed 268 rushing yards, nearly seven yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns to FCS Holy Cross last week. It may not be the sexiest brand of football but running the ball early and often (and protecting the potentially wet football) will be key to making sure the storm effects don't put FSU on upset alert.

Early Statement: This may prove to be a common key this season with FSU definitely expected to be a heavy favorite in quite a few games left on the Seminoles' schedule. For the second straight week, FSU enters a game as a heavy favorite expected to take care of business. Gone are the days of FSU needing to eke out wins against the likes of Boston College. FSU is once again a thoroughly more talented team than the Eagles. But with that, FSU can now expect to get everyone's best shot as it has claimed its place once again as the team that will be hunted by the rest of the ACC. Having not experienced a Red Bandana game at BC in person before, I have heard they bring out quite the crowd. As far as atmospheres at BC go, this should be about as good as it gets. Don't give that crowd a reason to stay engaged or stick around for four quarters. An early statement, perhaps an even stronger one than in last week's game, will go a long way towards ensuring FSU isn't remotely sweating out its final tune-up before next weekend's long-awaited game at Clemson.

Prediction: FSU 45, Boston College 10

Osceola Recruiting Analyst Charles Fishbein:

Keep it Clean: If FSU does not turn the ball over and get stupid penalties this game should not be close. Boston College struggled to beat Holy Cross last week. This week they face what may be the best team in the country.

Ground Control: This is the type of game you want to run the ball and shorten the game. Get a big lead and pound the rock. The shorter the game it’s less likely you lose a player to an injury. This game you want to get an early lead and be able to get your backups quality minutes.

FSU is the better team and Boston College does not even have a puncher's chance in this game. That being said in 2013 when FSU had an elite team they struggled early in Chestnut Hill.

Prediction: FSU 45, Boston College 20

Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham

Corral Castellanos: Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos has started just one of the Eagles' two games this season, but he has quickly made a difference for their offense. He is a dual-threat quarterback who has shown in two games that he has the potential to add some big plays to the BC offense. He was very accurate in his start against Holy Cross, completing 17 of 23 attempts and showed a strong arm with the ability to place it in some tight windows. He is also very elusive as a runner and will likely be called on to run a lot in the game if the wind and/or rains are as strong as what has been forecasted. FSU needs to pressure him in passing situations and keep him in the pocket. It must also do a great job of keeping him contained on play-action passes and the bootleg game. They also need to pound him if they decide to use him in the quarterback run game. Hit him hard, early and often and make him think twice about tucking and running.

Weather the Storm: Both literally and figuratively. The Red Bandana Game is an emotional game for Boston College players and fans and the Eagles will have some extra adrenaline pumping through their veins which could provide them an early spark. FSU needs to be prepared for a football team with added motivation on special day for BC and will only come out even more fired up looking to upset the third-ranked team in the country after what has been a disappointing start to the 2023 season for the Eagles, who could very easily be 0-2 and has played some sloppy and undisciplined football.

FSU must also handle and overcome any adversity it might face due to the weather and there is likely to be some for both teams. There could be turnovers because of a wet ball and of course the wind and rain could have a significant impact on the passing game and the kicking game. The Seminoles need to be ready to handle the mental and physical components that will come with playing in bad weather better than Boston College.