Magic 8 ball: Reassessing FSU's chances in its remaining 2023 games

Through four games, everything has gone according to plan for the Florida State football team.

The Seminoles (4-0, 2-0 in ACC) have already beaten LSU and won at Clemson and lived up to their preseason hype as a College Football Playoff contender.

Now, after a bye week to reload, the Seminoles turn their attention to the final eight games on their regular-season slate.

Five weeks into the season, here's an updated look at the rest of FSU's 2023 schedule and the challenges that will be presented over the next two months as the Seminoles look to remain unbeaten.

Results

36-17 win over Old Dominion

24-17 loss to Purdue

35-16 loss at Rutgers

24-17 loss at Marshall

38-21 win over Pittsburgh

Key players

QB Kyren Drones (618 passing yards, 4 touchdown passes, 205 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns)

RB Bhayshul Tuten (301 rushing yards, 132 receiving yards, 3 total touchdowns)

DE Antwaun Powell-Ryland (5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 3 QB hurries)

Key stats (National ranking vs. FBS competition)

Yards per play: 5.0 (100th)

Yards per rush: 3.27 (107th)

Yards per pass attempt: 7.1 (68th)

Yards per play allowed: 5.32 (42nd)

Yards per rush allowed: 4.65 (97th)

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 6.4 (28th)

Analysis: Entering this week, it was believed that Virginia Tech was in contention to be one of the worst teams in the ACC coming off three straight losses to underwhelming opponents. However, the Hokies proved that isn't the case Saturday night at home with a resounding win over Pittsburgh.

VT seems to have found something with quarterback Kyren Drones, who has surely supplanted Grant Wells in the starting spot after accounting for five total touchdowns (three passing, two rushing) in the win over the Panthers.

While VT's defensive numbers are fairly solid on paper, the proper grain of salt should be taken considering the team's schedule to date. The Hokies still haven't played an FCS opponent, but they have played two Group of 5 teams and two teams near the bottom of their respective conferences in Rutgers and Purdue and lost to both of them.

FSU will be far and away the Hokies' toughest game of the season so far.

Magic 8 ball ruling (FSU's chances in the game): You may rely on it

Results

65-0 win over Colgate

48-7 win over Western Michigan

35-20 win at Purdue

29-16 win over Army

31-14 loss to Clemson

Key players

QB Garrett Shrader (1,153 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 4 interceptions, 340 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns)

RB LeQuint Allen (363 rushing yards, 133 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns)

LB Marlowe Wax (38 total tackles, 5 TFL, 2 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 interception)

Key stats

Yards per play: 5.94 (47th)

Yards per rush: 4.49 (48th)

Yards per pass attempt: 7.7 (51st)

Yards per play allowed: 4.76 (22nd)

Yards per rush allowed: 3.08 (20th)

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 6.3 (23rd)

Analysis: Syracuse entered this week riding a historic high, having finished its non-conference schedule 4-0 for the first time in program history. Leave it to the Clemson Tigers to send the Orange plummeting back down to Earth.

Just about everything went right through Cuse's 4-0 start. But the Orange lost the turnover battle 3-1 Saturday, allowed Clemson QB Cade Klubnik to throw for 263 yards and two touchdowns and managed just 100 yards rushing at less than three yards per carry against the Tigers.

Syracuse should once again comfortably be a bowl team, returning quarterback Garrett Shrader and finding its Sean Tucker replacement in the backfield in LeQuint Allen. But it's hard to imaging the Orange — who play at North Carolina next week before heading to Tallahassee — will have great chances at a road upset of FSU if they lost by 17 at home to Clemson.

Magic 8 ball ruling: Signs point to yes

Results

28-7 win over Clemson

42-7 win over Lafayette

38-14 win over Northwestern

41-7 win at UConn

21-14 loss to Notre Dame

Key players

QB Riley Leonard (912 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 326 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs)

RB Jordan Waters (303 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs)

CB Myles Jones (2 interceptions, 2 pass breakups, 6 tackles, 0.5 tackles for loss)

Key stats

Yards per play: 5.99 (42nd)

Yards per rush: 5.36 (13th)

Yards per pass attempt: 6.7 (87th)

Yards per play allowed: 4.51 (14th)

Yards per rush allowed: 4.04 (68th)

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 5.0 (4th)

Analysis: Saturday night, Duke was a fourth-down stop away from being 5-0 with wins over Clemson and Notre Dame. Instead, the Irish converted and won, handing the Blue Devils a tragic loss. And to make matters worse, Duke QB Riley Leonard suffered what appeared to be an ankle injury on the Blue Devils' final offensive play of the game.

Leonard's status going forward hasn't yet been shared publicly and that makes Duke's chances in its trip to Tallahassee very difficult to predict. At the very least, it looked like the type of injury that could limit his mobility, taking away one of his main assets as a dual-threat quarterback who is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game this season.

Duke's defense could very well be the toughest test on that side of the ball left on FSU's 2023 schedule, especially the pass defense. That being said, Clemson ran and passed for over 200 yards in its loss to the Blue Devils, moving the ball well with a number of brutal red-zone turnovers. So there's certaintly a blueprint for a talented offense having some success against Duke's defense.

Magic 8 ball ruling: Ask again later

Results

37-17 win over Elon

36-20 win over Vanderbilt

27-24 win at Old Dominion

30-16 loss to Georgia Tech

Key players

QB Mitch Griffis (999 passing yards, 9 TDs, 6 interceptions)

WR Jahmal Banks (276 receiving yards, 3 TDs)

LB Jacob Roberts (37 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble)

Key stats

Yards per play: 5.33 (84th)

Yards per rush: 4.26 (57th)

Yards per pass attempt: 6.9 (77th)

Yards per play allowed: 5.96 (86th)

Yards per rush allowed: 3.63 (43rd)

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 8.3 (95th)

Analysis: As many expected entering the season, Wake Forest is badly missing former quarterback Sam Hartman, who transferred to Notre Dame, and wide receiver A.T. Perry, who is now in the NFL.

Mitch Griffis has had turnover problems early and the Demon Deacons' 10 total turnovers are the most in the ACC and tied for the most nationally among teams that have only played four games so far this season. Additionally, Wake's home loss to Georgia Tech last week looks worse now after the Yellow Jackets followed it up with a 38-27 home loss to Bowling Green.

Wake Forest's stadium, Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, has been a bit of a house of horrors of late for the Seminoles. But considering how Wake looks statistically and the teams it has played so far this season, it would seem that things are lining up well for FSU.

Magic 8 ball ruling: Most likely

Results

45-7 win over Wofford

27-21 loss to Cincinnati

17-6 loss at West Virginia

41-24 loss to UNC

38-21 loss at Virginia Tech

Key players

QB Phil Jurkovec (50.9% completion percentage, 818 yards, 6 TDs, 3 interceptions)

TE Gavin Bartholomew (258 receiving yards, 1 TD)

DL Bam Brima (16 tackles, 3 sacks, 3 QB hurries)

Key stats

Yards per play: 4.71 (112th)

Yards per rush: 3.11 (111th)

Yards per pass attempt: 6.4 (95th)

Yards per play allowed: 4.97 (28th)

Yards per rush allowed: 3.37 (38th)

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 8.5 (105th)

Analysis: Entering the season, this early November trip to Pittsburgh was being pegged by many as a potential trap game late in FSU's schedule. Safe to say that looks a lot less likely five weeks into the season.

After a failed Kedon Slovis experiment last season at quarterback, the Panthers turned to Boston College transfer Phil Jurkovec this season. In four games against FBS competition, he's completed 44.9% of his passes and averaged 151 passing yards with five touchdown passes and three interceptions.

Normally, Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi has a strong and capable defense, if nothing else. And yet, perhaps because of the offensive struggles, that hasn't even really been the case so far this season. The only established quarterback Pitt has faced this season, UNC's Drake Maye, completed over 73% of his passes and threw for nearly 300 yards against the Panthers.

Magic 8 ball ruling: Outlook good

Results

38-3 win over Miami (Ohio)

48-33 win over Texas A&M

48-7 win over Bethune-Cookman

41-7 win at Temple

Key players

QB Tyler Van Dyke (1,042 passing yards, 11 TDs, 1 interception)

WR Jacolby George (292 receiving yards, 4 TDs)

CB Te'Cory Couch (3 interceptions, 11 tackles, 2 PBUs, 1 QB hurry)

Key stats

Yards per play: 8.17 (3rd)

Yards per rush: 6.37 (3rd)

Yards per pass attempt: 10.5 (5th)

Yards per play allowed: 4.9 (25th)

Yards per rush allowed: 2.27 (3rd)

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 6.5 (33rd)

Analysis: It's impossible to deny that Miami has been one of the most surprising teams in the country through five weeks. It's true that the Hurricanes have only played one especially challenging opponent in Texas A&M, but they made a statement in that game and have taken care of business against their three other and certainly lesser opponents, something the program has not always done.

The bet on two new coordinators in Mario Cristobal's second season has paid off. Tyler Van Dyke has rediscovered his 2021 form when he shot up NFL draft boards, and UM's transfer portal additions have also paid dividends.

We'll certainly learn a good bit more about the Hurricanes before they travel to Tallahassee, with games against Georgia Tech, UNC, Clemson, Virginia and NC State set to come in the next five weeks.

But at this point, this appears to be the toughest test left on FSU's schedule and could be one of the most highly-touted games in the FSU-UM rivalry in recent memory.

Magic 8 ball ruling: Reply hazy, try again

Results

17-7 loss to Mercer

41-27 win over Chattanooga

52-31 loss to Tarleton State

20-7 win over Tennessee Tech

37-21 loss to Tennessee-Martin

32-22 loss to Eastern Kentucky

Key players

QB Noah Walters (1,368 passing yards, 9 TDs, 6 interceptions, 229 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD)

WR Takairee Kenebrew (413 receiving yards, 5 TDs)

DL Philip Ossai (38 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 3 QB hurries, 2 fumble recoveries)

Key stats

Yards per play: 5.4

Yards per rush: 4.3

Yards per pass attempt: 6.5

Yards per play allowed: 5.9

Yards per rush allowed: 4.5

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 7.9

Magic 8 ball ruling: It is decidedly so

Results

24-11 loss at Utah

49-7 win over McNeese

29-16 win over Tennessee

22-7 win over Charlotte

33-14 loss at Kentucky

Key players

QB Graham Mertz (1,220 yards, 6 TDs, 2 interceptions)

WR Ricky Pearsall (419 receiving yards, 2 TDs)

DE Princely Umanmielen (12 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks, 6 QB hurries)

Key stats

Yards per play: 5.61 (62nd)

Yards per rush: 2.94 (115th)

Yards per pass attempt: 8.4 (32nd)

Yards per play allowed: 5.6 (61st)

Yards per rush allowed: 4.93 (107th)

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 6.4 (28th)

Analysis: It's hard to get a read on what is the reality for this Florida football team through its first five games. The Gators started with a tough road loss at Utah, bounced back with an impressive home win over Tennessee and then were run all over by Kentucky in an embarrassing road beatdown Saturday, allowing UK running back Ray Davis to rush for 280 yards.

Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz has had some moments of success and some moments of struggle, but the real surprise has been the Gators' struggles to get their talented running game going against FBS competition.

Early in his second season atop the program, UF head coach Billy Napier is 8-2 in home games and 1-7 away from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Unfortunately for FSU, this year's game will be played in Gainesville. But before that, we'll know a good bit more about exactly how much trouble Napier is in.

Magic 8 ball ruling: As I see it, yes

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