Osceola Outlook: Predicting FSU football's breakout players, season record

After months of waiting, Florida State football season is only a week away.

The Seminoles open their 2022 season Aug. 27 at 5 p.m. when they host FCS foe Duquesne. So begins Mike Norvell's third season atop the FSU program, a year that will be undeniably important for any sort of long-term success for Norvell in Tallahassee.

After going a combined 8-13 over his first two seasons, the fanbase's patience is running thin. The expectation is at least a bowl, but probably even more improvement than that. The good news for Norvell is his roster has definitely improved significantly and could position him for the type of season he needs if things break right.

Before the start of the 2022 season, the Osceola staff were all asked to answer a range of questions about this team from breakout players to record predictions and more.

Jerry Kutz, publisher: Trey Benson. He'll add another gear to a good Seminole backfield.

Bob Ferrante, managing editor: Trey Benson is a great choice and he could very well surpass 800 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Benson’s job will also be made easier if the passing game finds better rhythm, and the red-zone offense (a success in 2021) could continue to be a strength or yield even more touchdowns with Johnny Wilson. The 6-foot-7 receiver is a matchup nightmare in 1-on-1 coverage near the goal line. And if defenses choose to double-cover Wilson, there will be a numbers edge elsewhere. In a sport that values mismatches and a Jimmy who may be better than a Joe, expect Johnny to have a breakout season.

Curt Weiler, senior writer: Benson is a great pick, but I'll go with another running back in Lawrance Toafili. We all saw Toafili's talent as a true freshman in 2020 when he averaged 9.62 yards per carry, second most in the country, and amassed 356 yards and two touchdowns in eight games. He was a trendy pick for breakout player last season, but battled injuries and never quite looked like himself, save for his remarkable touchdown catch at Clemson. Toafili now enters his third season at FSU as Mike Norvell's pick for most improved player. With a newfound commitment to the weight room, he's stronger entering his redshirt sophomore season and seems poised to have a bigger role in FSU's backfield after getting lost in the shuffle a bit last season.

Patrick Burnham, football/recruiting analyst: Offensive tackle Bless Harris. There were questions on Harris' ability to acclimate to the major college level after transferring from Lamar. Without the benefit having seen the team in the spring, he was someone I had questions on after watching some of his games on YouTube from Lamar. He has some really good tools to work with and seems to be practicing with more effort and determination than he did at times at Lamar. You would expect Robert Scott to have his best season at one tackle but a breakout year by Harris in helping give FSU quarterbacks a clean pocket on a more regular basis than it has in recent seasons could have a significant impact on the success of the offense.

Ariya Massoudi, director of creative media: Jordan Travis. I understand picking the quarterback is a safe move, but to me Travis is the epitome of the type of player ready to take his game to another level. He's shown flashes of game-breaking ability in his career, especially with his legs. He told me at ACC Kickoff in Charlotte he's got a chip on his shoulder to prove he's more than just a scrambler, he wants to be respected in the passing game. Speaking to people close to Travis, it seems that motivation burns even hotter than he even says publicly. This is his "prove it" year and he's shown consistency in camp to lead me to believe he's on the verge of becoming one of the best players in the ACC.

Charles Fishbein, recruiting analyst: I'll also go with Benson. I was skeptical of taking a running back who was coming off major knee surgery. After one run in the spring game, I did not need to see anymore. Benson has big time potential. He gives FSU a back with a nice blend of speed and power. It will be interesting to see if Mike Norvell has a load management deal with Benson to make sure he stays healthy throughout the season. I feel Benson has the potential to get FSU to the 8 win total.

Kutz: Look for the football and you'll find Tatum Bethune. The versatile UCF transfer recorded 108 total tackles in 2021, including 5.5 for loss. His stat line adds interceptions, pass breakups, fumbles caused and recovered, sacks and pressures.

Ferrante: It’s too easy to pick Tatum Bethune, who had 108 tackles at UCF in 2021, but he’s a newcomer who could very much be an All-ACC pick in December. I also like Fish’s pick of AZ Thomas, but how about Omarion Cooper? He started eight games as a freshman last fall, including FSU’s final three, and had 16 tackles, two interceptions and four pass breakups. He had an interception and four pass breakups against Miami, showing he’s capable of being a big-time player in the biggest games.

Weiler: I'll pick a different area of the field and go with defensive end Derrick McLendon. The fourth-year sophomore has waited his turn to break into the Seminoles' starting lineup, making the most of his limited reserve opportunities. Backing up Jermaine Johnson last year, he had 3.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss in less than 300 snaps. He talked a big game in the spring about his belief that he's one of the best defensive ends in the country and has had a strong preseason as he looks to prove that this fall. In reality, there are a few other breakout defensive end candidates on FSU's roster in Jared Verse and Dennis Briggs Jr. If any of these three have that type of season, it could be the missing piece that makes FSU's defense among the best in the ACC.

Burnham: The continued development of defensive tackles Jarrett Jackson and Joshua Farmer has been fun to watch during fall camp. Jackson is an almost prototypical defensive tackle at 6-6 and 300-pounds. It has never been about ability with Jackson, it has always been about waiting for him to play up to his considerable potential. It looks as if that is starting to happen. He has the ability to be a dominating player on the interior of the defensive line. Farmer has also had a strong camp. The deeper the team has gotten into camp the better he has looked. FSU could find itself in a position where there is very little to any drop off when Fabien Lovett and/or Robert Cooper are out of the game.

Massoudi: Jerry went with Tatum Bethune, which to me is a great pick. That kid is special and has a nose for the football. I'm not calling him Telvin Smith, but his instincts and ability to always be around the ball reminds of the way Telvin asserted his dominance in the defense back in the day. That's an incredible pickup by Norvell and the staff and he should shine from day one. I'll also go with Akeem Dent. I believe in this kid's talent and it seems like he's benefiting from being under one coach and one scheme for a couple seasons. He paired nicely with Jammie Robinson as the safety tandem down the stretch of the 2021 season. With opposing offenses weary of Robinson, they'll take chances against Dent and it's his season to live up to the five-star billing he had coming into Tallahassee.

Fishbein: Azareye’h Thomas. It would not surprise me if AZ ends up an all-conference player as a freshman. My scouting service had him rated as a top 10-15 player in Florida. Thomas is a play maker and he showed that ability this spring and well into fall camp. He is going to make everyone forget about Travis Hunter who was supposed to come in and start as a freshman. Thomas has all the tools to be an elite-level defensive back in college. Don’t want to put too much pressure on Thomas, but it would not surprise me to see the kid end up a three-and done player in college.

Kutz: Wide receiver Mycah Pittman. My instinct was Johnny Wilson, but Pittman can flip the script not just as a wily option in the passing game but in fielding punts and eliminating deflating negative yardage.

Ferrante: Winston Wright Jr. is a great answer. So is Jordan Travis — the gap in experience and comfort within the offense between FSU’s No. 1 quarterback and the backups is considerable. This one is a bit of a stretch since he’s a well-established player but he’s a pivotal one on the defense. Games are won up front and my money is on defensive tackle Fabien Lovett to cash in on his decision to return for the 2022 season. Don’t get caught up in sacks but take time to watch and see if Lovett can affect the passer or take on double teams to allow Bethune and Kalen DeLoach to make plays. We think Lovett will be very good but if he is truly disruptive — and FSU has the depth to keep the rotational players fresh — expect Lovett’s growth track of gradual improvement to take a leap forward.

Weiler: I'm going to go with a different wide receiver here in Deuce Spann. In the spring, the Illinois transfer, who has just one season of experience at wideout after transitioning from being a quarterback, was incredibly raw. So much so that I began to question if, not when, he would help this team. Shame on me as he's come incredibly far since spring camp came to an end in April. His speed is unlike anyone else in that room and his route-running and catching ability have also been markedly improved this preseason. If what he's shown this preseason is legit, he could open up the entire offense with how defenses will have to defend the Seminoles. He probably won't be among the receivers with the highest rep counts this season, but give him a few plays in FSU's expansive playbook and see what he can do.

Burnham: Wide receiver Winston Wright Jr. If FSU can get Wright back to full speed, it could totally change the dynamics of the Seminoles' offense. He was one the most productive wide receivers in the Big 12 last year at West Virginia where he caught 63 passes for 688 yards. In his three seasons at WVU he caught 119 passes for 1,338 yards which makes him the most accomplished receiver on FSU's roster. He may take some time to get him acclimated to the Seminoles' offense but what an addition he could be.

Massoudi: Defensive end Jared Verse. Lots of pressure is being put on the transfer from Albany to replicate what Jermaine Johnson gave FSU last season. Verse isn't Johnson, and that's an unfair expectation. However, and the reason I list him as a wild card, he has the ability to be a game changer on the defensive line. If he's able to disrupt opposing offenses and give the Seminoles' defense a true pass-rusher that has to be game-planned for thoroughly, it changes the complexion of Adam Fuller's unit. FSU has improved on every level of the defense, the inside of the line should be stout. The question becomes, can Verse be one of the leading sack-getters in the ACC and take the defense to another level?

Fishbein: Jordan Travis: He is the wild-card of the entire Seminole football team. He HAS TO STAY HEALTHY. Should I say that again? HE HAS TO STAY HEALTHY. I don’t even want to think what happens if Travis goes down. There is no question that Jordan is the difference between a winning and losing season this year. He goes down and it will be tough sailing the rest of the year. I would have put Winston Wright Jr., but I really believe that with such a serious injury in the off-season it so difficult to count on him this year.

Kutz: Offensive line. In spite of injuries that debilitated last year's progress offensively, Alex Atkins has recruited and developed linemen to plug and play, which was a major challenge this group managed in fall camp.

Ferrante: Games are won up front and I’ll agree that the offensive line has improved considerably, even with the season-ending injury to Kayden Lyles. But let’s go with the receivers, who are considerably more consistent from the veterans to the transfers. Mycah Pittman elevated the competition of the room, while Johnny Wilson is a far more consistent pass-catcher and Deuce Spann is quite the deep threat. FSU’s veterans have accepted the challenge, too. Ja’Khi Douglas and Keyshawn Helton are undersized but will be valuable pieces, and Ontaria Wilson will be a good complementary receiver.

Weiler: For the sake of variety, I'm gonna give the linebackers some love. It's been quite a few years since we've seen a true impact linebacker manning the middle of the FSU defense and there's a chance that we could see a few players who fit that bill this season. Tatum Bethune has been exactly what FSU hoped it was getting from the UCF transfer. Kalen DeLoach has carried over his strong finish to last season. DJ Lundy looks like a new linebacker playing at his reduced weight and no longer has a major coverage liability in his game. A veteran like Amari Gainer being FSU's fourth linebacker speaks to the depth at the top-end of that room. No disrespect to the wideouts and offensive line, both of which have been pleasant surprises this preseason, but FSU's linebackers could actually be a strength this season. I can't remember the last time I thought that was the case.

Burnham: No shocker here. I will stay with the big boys on the offensive line. It is the deepest that FSU has been on the offensive line in the four seasons I have been covering the team. This unit needs to stay healthy but certainly looks like offensive line coach Alex Atkins could be two-deep at all five positions for the first time in three seasons. At the very least, it will be the best seven to eight-man rotation FSU has had under Mike Norvell. Even if the team doesn't start with what coaches feel is a true two-deep to begin the season, there is always a chance they could be deeper at the end of the season with continued development of group of players that includes Bryson Estes, Thomas Shrader, Julian Armella, Qae'shon Sapp and Jaylen Early.

Massoudi: Everyone seemingly went with the OL and I agree with them that it has drastically raised its floor. For the sake of being different, I'll go with the wide receivers. Last year's unit left a lot to be desired, putting it kindly. Norvell basically went and overhauled the room in the off-season and it has paid off. Winston Wright Jr. being hurt is a bummer, he had a chance to be a really nice player and perhaps we can see him play in some capacity later this year, I'm rooting for that kid and his story. But Johnny Wilson makes you dream at night, his ability in 1v1 and the consistency he played with in fall camp is encouraging. Malik McClain has gotten better from an impressive rookie campaign, Mycah Pittman is steady, smart and solid. Pokey Wilson has shown some nice things during camp, and Keyshawn Helton brings veteran experience and a great locker room presence. Deuce Spann has a chance to evolve into a really good player with his size-speed combo and Kentron Poiter could turn some heads too this season.

Fishbein: Offensive line. In prior years, had FSU lost a potential starting center and the season was lost. This year's unit is not only more talented but also much deeper then prior years. One or two injuries this year wont derail the season.

Kutz: Duquesne. FSU is a program that is 8-13 the past two years and has no business looking past the end of their nose. Next most important game will be LSU for the same reason and then it will be Louisville...

Ferrante: Mike Norvell is oddly in Year 3 and doesn’t have a home or road win in September. If you’re debating the value of a win over LSU or at Louisville, a neutral-site victory over Brian Kelly and the Tigers is quite good. But the preference would be an ACC victory at Louisville, which provides momentum going into the meat of the league schedule.

Weiler: I'm also going to go with Louisville. As Bob said, beating LSU could be a major step back towards prominence. But I'd wager it wouldn't mean a ton if FSU doesn't follow that up with a road win against a Louisville team FSU has struggled against of late two weeks later. Beating teams like LSU is no doubt the long-term plan for FSU's path back. The next step, though, is beating the teams in the ACC that the Seminoles should be beating on a somewhat regular basis. That begins against the Cardinals and continues the following two weeks against Boston College and Wake Forest.

Burnham: To me, the most important game of the year will be Louisville. I am not sure we will learn much, if anything, about this FSU team against Duquesne. It is a game that should be over by intermission. I think the Louisville game is important because whether it wins or loses to LSU, it will be telling to see how this team responds to whatever happens in New Orleans on Labor Day weekend. If FSU were to beat LSU, can it show the maturity of a veteran team and stay focused and hungry after a win over a storied SEC program with two weeks between its games with the Tigers and the Cardinals. Conversely, if FSU were to lose to LSU (and what this hypothetical loss might look like would play a factor in this), there will be a ton of questions surrounding this team as it hits the road for its second consecutive nationally televised game. With a five-game run that begins in October which includes Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson and Miami, it is imperative FSU gets off to a fast start. Wins over LSU and Louisville and an undefeated record would certainly accomplish that, but a loss to LSU is quickly forgotten with a win against the Cards and a very good chance to head into the Wake Forest game with a 3-1 or 4-0 record with Boston College next on deck after the team's trip to Kentucky.

Massoudi: LSU. To me, Louisville is an important game on the road after a bye and I was tempted to pick it. However, the LSU game is massive for national brand recognition. This isn't about 2022, it's not about this current season. It's an opportunity to make a statement about the future of the program as a potential national player once again. The Tigers aren't going to be phenomenal this year, they'll be playing their first game with a new coach. But they are a factor nationally in the public eye, they move the needle. FSU will be playing on a Sunday night with all eyes on them. Every recruit will be watching. Norvell needs this game in my opinion to persuade recruits, not just 2023s, but beyond as well, that the Seminoles are on their way back towards national prominence. The Seminoles haven't won a game like this one in quite some time. This one is big.

Fishbein: Louisville. Beating LSU would be nice but FSU is not playing for a national title this year. Beating Louisville is huge. They are a conference foe and the game is on the road. FSU does not play as well on the road. You win a game like Louisville and it starts the momentum in the right direction. Lose to Louisville and it could become a long season.

Kutz: 9-4. My head tells me this team has improved enough to win two more games than in 2021 to go 7-5 against a tough schedule, with a bowl win to finish at 8-5. But for the fun of it, I'm going to allow my heart to predict this team will find an extra win.

Ferrante: FSU has gone from 3-6 to 5-7 under Norvell and a jump is expected in 2022. Given that the Seminoles play Duquesne and Louisiana, FSU should finish the regular season 7-5. That’s .500 against Power 5 teams, which should be the baseline for a Year 3 program under a coach who has reshaped the roster in his vision.

Weiler: After losing big and losing close, this should, in theory, be the win close year for Mike Norvell according to FSU legend Bobby Bowden's program-building philosophy. It won't be easy against a schedule which includes two SEC foes and a pesky Group of Five contender in Louisiana in addition to the Seminoles' ACC slate. But I've seen enough from this team this preseason to make me believe it is ready to take the next step. Put me down for 7-5 with the eighth win coming in the bowl and a win over either Florida or Miami.

Burnham: I am not sure it has ever been more difficult to know what to expect from a team as a member of the media because we never get to see the team play "live" 11-on-11 football during camp. However, based on what we have seen in the non-scrimmage practices, this is the deepest and most talented team Mike Norvell and his staff have had in their three seasons in Tallahassee. In order to reach its full potential, FSU will have to have the good fortune of having some of its frontline players stay healthy. To me, those position groups are quarterback, wide receiver, tight end and linebacker. Those position groups either lack experienced and proven depth or just don't have many bodies to work with. And that's not to say someone wouldn't break out at one of these positions if forced into action. It is a year where there seems to be a lot of competitive balance in the ACC, which could and most likely will lead to some surprising outcomes as the season goes on. Because of that I will go with a projection of 7-5 with a plus/minus ratio of one game on either side of the win-loss column.

Massoudi: 8-4. I truly feel Norvell has this program going in the right direction. The players have bought in, they fight hard, they're tough, they believe. The rosters have improved tremendously, too. Lots of close losses last year and I think the team is ready to take the next step. The schedule is pretty tough, but the Seminoles are much better than people think. So many people are gun shy to predict a three-win improvement from 2021. I understand that and I don't blame them. We've been hurt too many times. But, in all honesty, if Jacksonville State doesn't complete a ridiculously low-percentage play at the buzzer, FSU is in a bowl game attempting to win its 7th game last year, 8 isn't too crazy. Maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, but that's what preseason is for. I choose hope, don't kill my vibe. 8-4 with a chance at 9 wins in the bowl game.

Fishbein: FSU is a better team, there is no doubt about it. My main concern is the health of Jordan Travis and Trey Benson. They stay healthy all season long and FSU can get to 8 wins. I just see Travis missing a couple of games and it costing them. I will go with 7-5, the team's first season over .500 since 2017 and with a win in a bowl game get to win No. 8. It does not matter how FSU gets to eight wins but doing so will do wonders not only for the program but also recruiting.

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