With the Seminoles two weeks away from the start of the college football season, the Osceola staff takes a look at Florida State's 2024 schedule and ranks the games from the toughest (1) to the easiest (12). Each first-place vote is worth 12 points, second-place worth 11 points, all the way down to twelfth-place votes which get one point.
1st - Notre Dame (48 points)
This was unanimous as the toughest game for the Seminoles in 2024.
Pat Burnham - FSU heads to face the Irish in November and might not only have to take on a very good ND team but will also be in the middle of the toughest part of the schedule having played at SMU, Clemson, at Miami and vs. North Carolina in four of the five games leading up to the trip to South Bend. And weather could be a factor.
Curt Weiler - The case can be made for a few teams to be atop this list. But I'm going with the trip to South Bend. That team is supposed to be good this season, it's a tough environment to play in and the game comes at the end of what is definitely the most grueling stretch on FSU's 2024 schedule. We saw what Riley Leonard could do against FSU last season when he was at Duke before he got injured. With a better supporting cast around him this time, that could be a real challenge for the Seminoles.
Nick Carlisle - This will very likely be a Top 25 matchup and it comes at the tail end of the hardest part of FSU's schedule. It will be Florida State's second look at seeing Riley Leonard and, injuries non-withstanding, it will be at full strength. It will be cold, it will be loud, and it will be a tall task to beat the Irish if these conditions dog pile.
ND ranking by staff member - Pat (1), Curt (1), Bob (1), Nick (1)
Second - Clemson (42)
Pat - It is very quiet around the Clemson program these days. Of course, that is what happens when your program is in the middle of an historic slump. I mean the Tigers haven't won 10 games in a season since 2022. Oh, but they did when nine last year and were a friendly bounce or two from securing their 13th consecutive season with 10 or more wins. The offense should be better with eight returning starters back including QB Cade Klubnik and second season in Garret Riley's offense. The defense doesn't return many starters, but I can't remember the last time Clemson wasn't good on defense.
Curt - FSU's path to repeating as ACC champs likely goes through its Oct. 5 home game vs. Clemson. After five weeks of relative warm-up, this will mark the first time FSU plays a team with about as much talent across the board as itself. Last year's game at Clemson showed that even when FSU appears better on paper this game is usually close. That's likely to be the case again this season. There's optimism about Cade Klubnik taking the next step in year two as the full-time starter, Phil Mafah is a great running back and the Tigers still have quite a few defensive players capable of taking over a game.
Nick - There isn't much question that Clemson is — and will continue to be — one of the hardest games on the schedule. You cannot deny that Clemson has an excess of talent and while reliant on some key players taking steps, they will not lack in that department. They will continue to be excellent defensively and while you hope that DJU and the Seminoles will have worked out any kinks in the offense by this point, this will be their toughest test on the season to that point. Good news is that you get the Tigers at home this year and that should help.
Clemson ranking by staff member-Pat (2), Curt (3), Bob (2), Nick (3)
Third - Miami (40)
Pat - For what seems like the 15th year in a row Miami is supposed to be back on the national stage. They did revamp their roster with 15 additions via the portal, including QB Cam Ward (who flirted with transferring to FSU). They are getting a lot of hype, but the staff has game management issues and Ward can be turnover prone. The average ranking for the players that transferred to Miami according to Rivals was 560th. Compare that to FSU's average of 372nd and Florida's average of 457th, it's hard to imagine they made up much ground on FSU if there is any reality to the individual player transfer rankings. Plus, I will take Mike Norvell over Mario Cristobal in a battle of coaching wits any day of the week. I had the Canes ranked as the fifth toughest game on the schedule.
Curt - I have my doubts about Mario Cristobal as a game manager. But the job he's done assembling a very strong roster at his alma mater is undeniable. The offense, led by a pair of transfers in QB Cam Ward and RB Damian Martinez, is solid across the board. The defense has some questions entering the season but is anchored by a very good pass-rusher in Rueben Bain and will have quite a few weeks to sort out the other questions before it hosts FSU. And while the jokes about Miami's attendance for home games are valid, the FSU game is the one occasion every two years where that fanbase shows up and gets loud to try and will their team to victory. FSU's first extremely tough road test of the season will be no joke.
Nick - The 'Cristobal Can't Coach' elephant aside, this game should be a ranked rivalry matchup and a test in the middle of the season. It's also a road game against a roster that should (keyword SHOULD) be much improved, especially with the transfer additions of Cam Ward and Damien Martinez. If Miami show resolve above the shoulder pads, I expect this game to be close.
Miami ranking by staff member: Pat (5), Curt (2), Bob (3), Nick (2)
Fourth - Florida (33)
Pat - Despite all the talk of Florida imploding heading into Billy Napier's third season, the Gators finished fourth in our poll of toughest games for FSU. Florida did a nice job in the portal although it didn't get much fanfare because most of the talk has been about how tough its schedule is. This game will likely have huge ramifications for both teams. It could have CFP implications for FSU and bowl/winning seasons implications for Florida. The Gators' coaching staff is fighting for their coaching lives if you believe the pundits. That can serve as motivation. I think they will be better than most think and regardless it's FSU vs. Florida.
Curt - I'm not that high on Florida entering this season. In fact, I have some doubts if Billy Napier will still be the Gators' head coach when this game rolls around on the calendar. But like FSU's games against Clemson, it feels like these games are normally close even if the talent level between the two teams is not neck-and-neck. Florida's young, talented wide receiver room should help Graham Mertz take a step forward in year two as the Gators' quarterback and the defense can't be THAT bad again, right?
Nick - As we've seen time and time again, it doesn't matter how much of a talent disparity there is on the field, these games are always close. I know college football is a week-to-week sport but after six weeks of brutal SEC games, you can't help but wonder if Florida limps into Doak Campbell on a losing streak. It's not a secret what this year may look like for Napier and the Gators but acknowledging it and actually managing it are two different beasts. Florida will still have a good running attack even without Trevor Etienne. Graham Mertz should continue to be quietly reliable with some young, exciting weapons but they might simply be out of gas by the time they reach Tallahassee in late November if that schedule works out the way the majority of the country thinks it will.
Florida's ranking by staff member - Pat (3), Curt (5), Bob (5), Nick (6)
Fifth - SMU (31)
Pat-The more I dug into my summer scouting report on the Mustangs the more I realized that this could very much be more than just a test for FSU on the road, it could be a very good ballgame. They won the AAC last season and return their starting QB, top two running backs and five of their six leading receivers from a season ago. They must replace three of their starting offensive linemen but brought in five OLs via the portal this offseason. SMU was one the better defenses in the country last season and they brought in some experienced P4 defenders via the portal. Would not be surprised at all if this was an extremely close game as SMU begins ACC play.
Curt - SMU entered the ACC this offseason riding high coming off an 11-win season and an AAC championship. In two years under head coach Rhett Lashlee, they have won 18 games and went 14-3 in conference play. I'm not convinced that the Mustangs are immediately going to jump into being ACC contenders like some people seem to think they will be. However, this will be SMU's first ACC game and FSU's first true road game of the season. SMU is certainly talented enough to give the Seminoles a game and a hostile crowd (even in a relatively smaller stadium) that has been waiting a long time for this moment will also test FSU's resolve.
Nick - Out of all of the additions to the conference, SMU is most likely to make its presence felt in Year 1. However, the Mustangs were 0-3 last season against Power 5 competition, including a loss to Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. SMU is returning a fair majority of key offensive players from its offense that scored the 8th most points in the FBS last season. They must replace three starters from last season on the offensive line and if games are truly won in the trenches, I think this is a good matchup for Florida State. The Seminoles may find themselves behind the 8-ball at some point in this game but the depth, especially along the line, may prove to be the key factor in whether this game is close for four quarters.
SMU's ranking by staff member-Pat (6), Curt (4), Bob (6), Nick (5)
Sixth - Georgia Tech (30)
Pat - I have GT as FSU's fourth hardest game this season. There are just so many unknowns about each team heading into a season opener in a game being played in Ireland. The Seminoles are breaking in a new QB and are replacing four of its six leading wide receivers from last season, so it's hard to know exactly what FSU will look like on offense and it could take some time to find its legs and its new playmakers. And while there isn't expected to be much drop off on the defensive side of the ball for FSU, replacing Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Kalen Deloach and Renardo Green is easier said than done. Can Georgia Tech take an advantage of an aggressive but mostly young Seminoles defense? And as for the Jackets themselves, they return both QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes and three-fifths of its OL from last season. The defense is the question mark for GT, but they do seem to be trending in the right direction under Brent Key. Season openers can be tricky.
Curt - FSU may have the benefit of not opening this season with another helmet game against one of the other college football powers like it has the last few years against LSU. That being said, GT will hardly be a cakewalk of a season opener for the Seminoles. Texas A&M transfer QB Haynes King had quite a debut season as a dual threat with over 2,800 passing yards, over 700 rushing yards and 37 total touchdowns. RB Jamal Haynes was a 1,000-yard rusher in 2023 and is also back. The Jackets bring back quite a few pieces from their breakthrough in head coach Brent Key's first season and will be at least a marginal challenge for FSU in game one.
Nick - Georgia Tech is poised to have a potent offense with the return of Haynes King and Jamal Haynes. They might not be a conference powerhouse, but I would be surprised if FSU controlled the game from start to finish. It was very evident at this time of training camp last year how good FSU was going to be offensively from the jump. Right now, my opinion of the offense is that it will take time to get going this season. Combine that with first game jitters, teams hitting someone else for the first time, and other opening game shenanigans (there's an Irish word for you), I feel that this game will be tougher than people think.
Georgia Tech's ranking by staff member-Pat (4), Curt (7), Bob (7), Nick (4)
Seventh - Memphis (23)
Pat - I ranked this game as the 7th hardest on FSU's schedule and you can make the argument they could go higher. Another game, that I felt like might be more challenging after looking at their off-season additions combined with what they have coming back. They were 10-3 last year and return their QB and three starting wide receivers from last year's offense that ranked 14th in the country. They were porous on defense last season but hit the portal hard, including landing Tennessee's leading tackler from a year ago in Elijah Herring. In all, the Tigers brought in 16 transfers on defense so how good they will be remains a question but it's hard to believe they could be worse than they were last season. Plus, head coach Ryan Silverfield was an assistant under Mike Norvell before taking over at Memphis, so they know each other's tendencies well. This one might be closer than the experts think.
Curt - As far G5 opponents go to fill out its 2024 schedule, FSU couldn't have picked a much harder one than it did when scheduling Memphis. Scheduled as a chance for Mike Norvell to welcome the program that gave him his first head coaching opportunity to Tallahassee for a game and a check, FSU is definitely getting more than it bargained for from the Tigers. Senior QB Seth Henigan threw for 3,883 yards and 32 touchdowns in 2023, and his top two receivers are back on the team this season. The Tigers are being viewed as one of the frontrunners to land the G5 spot in the first 12-team College Football Playoff and aren't to be treated like many of the G5 teams FSU normally schedules.
Memphis' ranking by staff member - Pat (7), Curt (10), Bob (4), Nick (8)
Eighth - North Carolina (22)
Pat - Mack Brown's Tar Heel teams don't beat Florida State teams even when they are equal to or better than the Seminoles. They aren't either of those two things this year. Where this game falls in the schedule, between Miami and Notre Dame is the only reason you keep your knees bent and head on a swivel for this matchup.
Curt - The Tar Heels offense should look quite a bit different in 2024 with standout quarterback Drake Maye off to the NFL. However, UNC should still have an explosive offense, albeit in a different way, anchored by running back Omarion Hampton this fall. Last season as a sophomore, Hampton rushed for 1,504 yards (fifth nationally) and 15 touchdowns (11th nationally), averaging nearly six yards per carry. With Maye now gone, he should be an even more heavily featured player this season. This game being sandwiched between FSU's two hardest road trips to Miami and Notre Dame certainly adds to the degree of difficulty.
Nick - The Tar Heels under Mack Brown last year were underwhelming with their first-round QB Drake Maye at the helm. Now with transfer Max Johnson running the offense, I cannot imagine it's any better this season in Chapel Hill. Still, a quarterback does not a team make and North Carolina will still have plenty of weapons offensively. Omarion Hampton, of course, and Bryson Nesbit, who is one of the best tight ends in the ACC.
UNC's ranking by staff member-Pat (8), Curt (6), Bob (9), Nick (7)
Ninth - Cal (19)
Pat - The ACC couldn't have made the Golden Bears entrance to ACC football any more difficult. All they are tasked with is facing Florida State in their first ever game as a member of the conference. And they have to do it September in what will likely be either a noon or 3:30 game due to cross country travel. This should be a blowout for FSU. Cal added some nice pieces via the portal but not nearly enough to make a profound difference in this game.
Cal's ranking by staff member - Pat (10), Curt (8), Bob (8), Nick (9)
10th - Boston College (14)
Nick - Prior to the offseason, I would have looked at this game and considered this a potential trap game for Florida State. But with the departure of Jeff Hafley and his staff, I can't see this being an overly competitive game. As experienced as Bill O'Brien is at the collegiate level, having your opening game be at Florida State and at night is about as difficult as it gets. Thomas Castellanos returns and will be as elusive of a QB as FSU will face on the schedule with his speed but in terms of dynamic offenses, the Eagles are not the first team you think of. Florida State fans will be rabid to see their team at home in person after the opener in Ireland.
Boston College's ranking by staff member - Pat (9), Curt (11), Bob (11), Nick (9)
11th - Duke (11)
Curt - A Friday night road game coming off a bye right before the toughest stretch of FSU's schedule could present some problems to the Seminoles on paper. However, I find it hard to imagine Duke will be able to do that given how much replenishing of the roster they're having to do under first-year head coach Manny Diaz. Riley Leonard is at Notre Dame. Standout running back Jordan Waters is at NC State. Weeknight games can get weird, but I struggle to see Duke being able to muck it up enough to knock off the Seminoles, even if there's been some positive buzz about Texas QB transfer Maalik Murphy.
Duke's ranking by staff member-Pat (11), Curt (9), Bob (10), Nick (11)
12th - Charleston Southern (4)
Pat Burnham - At this point in college football these games should be outlawed. Players and coaches need to earn their money, and they aren't when they schedule these games. Not to mention there is a safety concern with 85 Power 4 scholarship players going up against a team with only 63 scholarships players.
Staff Member Voting (1-12)
Pat: ND, CLEM, FLA, GT, MIA, SMU, Memphis, UNC, BC, Cal, Duke, ChasSo
Curt: ND, MIA, CLEM, SMU, FLA, UNC, GT, Cal, Duke, Memphis, BC, ChasSo
Bob: ND, CLEM, MIA, Memphis, FLA, SMU, GT, BC, UNC, Duke, Cal, ChasSo
Nick: ND, MIA, CLEM, GT, SMU, FLA, UNC, Memphis, Cal, BC, Duke, ChasSo
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