Jimbo Fisher is a student of football history, particularly Florida State football history. He can give you play-by-play or the Seminoles' greatest games against Miami and Florida. He can rattle off the names of key players and situations.
But I wonder if he truly knows how he ended up here. I'm curious if he was watching when the Bobby Bowden regime really started to crumble.
Of all the issues that contributed to the downfall of FSU's "Dynasty Era" -- the 14 consecutive years of 10-win seasons and top-five finishes -- No. 1 on the list was the players' lack of trust in the coaching staff, which eventually led to a divide between players in the locker room.
First, the players took issue with some of the assistant coaches. They didn't believe they were all qualified and competent, and in some cases they were right.
Then once the offense started tanking under then-offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden, a split developed between offense and defense. The players started bickering. Even some of the assistant coaches started griping to their players about what was happening on the other side of the ball.
It was an unhealthy situation, and like all unhealthy situations that go untreated, it only got worse. It didn’t take long before some of the players channeled their resentment to their once-beloved head coach. I remember one prominent starter on the 2002 team telling me, "This isn't the Coach Bowden I came to play for."
The program was well on its way to disarray. The Seminoles went 9-5 that year and 10-3 the next. It would be the last time Bowden won 10 games in a season. An 8-5 record in 2005 and a 7-6 season in ’06 ultimately led to the changes that brought Fisher to FSU as offensive coordinator.
While the Seminoles didn’t hit rock bottom until the 2006 Wake Forest loss -- a 30-0 home blowout that still seems inconceivable some 10 years later -- the cracks in the foundation had been apparent for several seasons.
Similar cracks are apparent today.
While Saturday’s 37-35 loss to North Carolina can’t be pinned completely on the defense -- the offense and special teams had a slew of mistakes as well -- it’s clear that the team’s defensive struggles are beginning to create trust issues throughout the team.
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This defense hasn’t played well against a quality opponent in a long time. In four games against FBS opponents this season, the Seminoles are giving up 42.25 points per game. They haven’t held an FBS opponent to less than 34 points since last November at Florida.
North Carolina’s offensive statistics on Saturday were staggering. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky completed 31 of 38 passes for 405 yards and three touchdowns. Receiver Ryan Switzer caught 14 passes for 158 yards. Leading rusher T.J. Logan averaged 7.7 yards per carry.
The Tar Heels punted one time.
So even after FSU took an improbable 35-34 lead with 23 seconds remaining, it somehow wasn’t shocking that the defense allowed North Carolina to get back into field goal range with four seconds left. It wasn’t shocking to the fans, and it wasn’t shocking to the players.
“We do have a confidence issue,” junior linebacker Matthew Thomas said of the Seminoles’ beleaguered defense. “Sometimes the confidence is really low. We’ve just got to keep it high and play with high energy all the time.”
But how do you keep your confidence high when you don’t believe in what you’re doing? When you don’t trust that you’re being put in the best positions to succeed?
That was the root problem for Florida State in the early 2000s. It started with the offense, and it eventually filtered to the defense and the rest of the roster.
Aren’t we seeing the same thing here?
Consider these words from senior defensive end DeMarcus Walker.
“I tried my best,” he said. “I can only do so much.”
Then these from tailback Dalvin Cook.
“All we can control is on the offensive side of the ball,” Cook said. ”Just to go down and get a touchdown, and that’s what we did.”
Cook would later say that, “We win as a team and we lose as a team.” But that was only after twice pointing out that the offense scored a touchdown on its final drive to take the lead.
That’s not an indictment of Walker’s or Cook’s character. It’s human nature. If you’ve put in as much work as college football players do, you need to believe that the coaches are giving you every chance to succeed. And if there are problems, you need to have faith that the coaches are going to address them.
When you begin to lose that trust, that’s when things can spiral out of control.
It will be interesting to see how Fisher handles this situation going forward. We have to assume he believes in Charles Kelly’s ability to be a defensive coordinator -- he promoted him into that position following the 2013 season and he pushed for the university to give him a hefty raise and contract extension at the end of last year.
But this defense has been a wreck all season, and there is not one tangible sign of improvement. There are still receivers running free. There is still poor tackling. At times, there is still lack of effort.
When I asked him Saturday if he is confident in what the Seminoles are doing schematically, Fisher was adamant that he is.
“That's the same defense we ran in 2013, 2014, 2015, and we played well with it last year,” Fisher said.
He went on to say that he’s “not blaming the kids” either.
So if it’s not the scheme and it’s not the players, then what’s the answer?
Perhaps there was a clue in the rest of his response. While not suggesting that he was planning to make a change to his staff, Fisher made four separate references to play calling.
“Maybe it needs to be called at different times,” he said at one point. “Just when it's called or what they have matched up against it. We have to look at that and see. … I’ll look at the film and make the judgments.”
That’s not an outright indictment of Kelly, but it’s probably as close as we’re going to get midseason.
I honestly don’t know what Fisher is going to do, and I’m not even sure what options are available right now. Even if he wanted to make a change to his defensive coaching staff, there’s probably not a great alternative among the current coaches. Linebackers coach Bill Miller is the only other assistant with experience as a defensive coordinator, but his position group has struggled as much as any.
Could Fisher bring in someone from the outside? Could he take some sort of committee approach?
What we do know is he has to do something.
Florida State is not going to win the ACC this season. The Seminoles aren’t going back to the College Football Playoff. The way things are going, they’ll have a very tough time continuing their win streaks against rivals Miami and Florida.
But sometimes, making a change isn’t about what you can win in the short term. It’s about what you can lose in the long term if you don’t.
Bobby Bowden lost his players in the 2000s because they no longer had faith in the assistants, then each other and finally their head coach. There are signs that the current Seminoles are going down a similar path.
Jimbo Fisher knows his Florida State history. Only he can determine if he’s going to repeat it.
Contact managing editor Ira Schoffel at ira@warchant.com and follow @IraSchoffel on Twitter.
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