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Published Oct 1, 2021
Sporting 'Noles: Assessing FSU-Syracuse from a Fantasy perspective
Tom Lang
Director of Original Content, Warchant.com

Last week was successful in two ways for this Warchant staffer.

The first way was traveling to Wisconsin's Whistling Straits to take in a victorious bid for the Ryder Cup, replete with FSU’s own Brooks Koepka and Daniel Berger registering four of the USA’s 19 team points. Raise Old Glory!

The second was in this very feature, where we looked at key over/under props as put together by PrizePicks.com for Florida State and Louisville. One good week does not qualify as a heater, so let’s see if the Sporting ‘Noles and real-life ‘Noles can come away with another win.

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Season Record: 2-0*

*Since Jordan Travis did not play in the game, I’ll be honorable and take that under bet off the table (perhaps a vestige of all the golfing etiquette I took in at Whistling Straits). Instead of 3-0, we'll call it a 2-0 start.

On to the slate!

Game Prop: Syracuse RB Sean Tucker over/under 105.5 rushing yards

Editor’s note: Our projections are for entertainment purposes and entertainment purposes only.

The take: Through week four, Tucker has racked up the second-most rushing yards (536) and second-most scrimmage yards (711) in FBS. But with the challenge FSU’s defensive line could pose, if you like Tucker to run past this number, it’s because of the at-bats he’ll get in the game. In Syracuse’s 24-21 win over Liberty, Tucker was the primary, secondary and tertiary weapon on offense, running the ball 32 times for 169 yards.

For Tucker to hit this number, the Orange will probably have to be playing from ahead. He’s the first key for FSU’s defense, and despite a winless season, that Seminole front-four can still dictate terms around the line of scrimmage.

Verdict: Under

Game Prop: FSU QB McKenzie Milton over/under 189.5 passing yards

The take: Milton has eclipsed this number just once this season, and that was in last week’s 248-yard effort against Louisville. In studying Syracuse’s less-than-stellar strength of schedule, the Orange haven’t given up much across the middle of the field, but they were beat on some throws outside the numbers against Liberty.

The problems here are two-fold. First, given Milton’s arm strength, most of the damage here will have to come via short passes and likely some good blocking out of the receivers in the RPO game. Second, Jordan Travis was observed at practice this week and, in theory, could eat a chunk of attempts and yards. While in most seasons the “it’s Syracuse” argument could hold water, this is a tough ask -- even for a low passing total.

Verdict: Under

Game Prop: Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader over/under 111.5 passing yards

The take: This is the bizarro battle of “strength” against “strength” on Saturday. Shrader has emerged as Syracuse starter -- at least for now -- ahead of longtime Orange quarterback Tommy DeVito. At 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, you can probably guess by the prop total that Shrader is primarily a run threat.

On the surface, Shrader is going to have a tough time eclipsing the prop. According to Pro Football Focus, he is 0-for-10 with an interception on throws 20-plus yards downfield. Add that to the fact that Syracuse’s run/pass splits lean heavily toward the run, and you have a simple under play. Right?

Wrong. Florida State has given up a pitch-and-catch shot down the field every week this season, and until proven otherwise, I’m willing to bet Shrader can rack up 40 or 50 yards in one play. Even if the rest of his throws live in the intermediate range, that should be enough to get him over the hump. Play this one small or with timidity though; DeVito looms if things go really sour for Shrader

Verdict: Over

The Final Word

Both starting quarterbacks could be pulled in this game, turning the props and game script upside down. For example, Jashaun Corbin's over/under this week is 94.5 rushing yards. I didn't post it as a play because of the Treshaun Ward and Jordan Travis factors.

Last week's Louisville numbers were far easier to project than these, but the pick I like most is Tucker not eclipsing his 105.5 yards. If the inspiration we saw out of the second-half Seminole defense is apparent again this week, the smallish Tucker will have to take a beating to earn every yard.

Tom Lang is Warchant's director of original content. Contact him by email at tom@warchant.com and follow @_TomLang on Twitter.

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