10/20/2023 football Edit

Staff predictions, keys to an FSU win over Duke

FSU keys on Saturday: Physical up front, winning the line of scrimmage and putting pressure on the QB. (Mike Ewen)

Patrick Burnham • TheOsceola

Football/Recruiting Analyst

No. 4 FSU will take on No. 16 Duke at 7:30 p.m. on Saturday in Doak Campbell Stadium in the final game of a three-game homestand. The Seminoles are two touchdown favorites over the Blue Devils, who are one of three teams in the ACC without a conference loss. The status of Duke starting quarterback Riley Leonard is unknown for the game. Duke head coach Mike Elko said earlier in the week that Leonard was "day-to-day."

The Osceola staff offers their keys to an FSU win over Syracuse on Saturday afternoon.

Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva

The game vs. Duke has turned out to be a key marker for this team. Is FSU a true playoff caliber team? Are they the favorite for the ACC Championship? Can FSU realize its potential, put it all together, and impact the narrative about this team on a national level? A lot is at stake, and I like how this game sets up. Third game in a three-game homestand. A lot of rotation of personnel means a healthier, fresher team, especially on defense. ABC night game with the "A" team announcers, and a lit Doak on a homecoming night. Top prospects in attendance. It's all lined up for FSU and all they need to do is focus, perform and get a result. The more style points the better as we begin to weed out playoff contenders and pretenders but it's not going to be easy. Duke is a well-coached, veteran team with a really good scheme and a mature way about them that says they won't be intimidated by the moment or the setting. So, personally, I'll take a win no matter how it looks and if there is some eye candy associated with it so much the better. All that being said here are my top two keys:

Turnover Titleist: FSU's offense has been outstanding in taking care of the ball with only one interception and two lost fumbles in six games. I believe Duke will try to control the game through sustained drives to limit FSU's possessions and therefore opportunities to take advantage of the playmakers on offense. FSU doesn't need to play into that kind of strategy by giving the ball away and limiting their possessions. In close games against good teams, a timely turnover is often the difference (uh, Clemson anyone?) and FSU has been outstanding in the turnover department. That trend needs to continue.

Own the Red Zone: The Blue Devil offense is pretty efficient, and whether Riley Leonard is playing or 100 percent will play into this key. But I anticipate whether he plays or not, Duke will have some opportunities in the scoring area. Duke OC Kevin Johns is too savvy not to dial up some offense and present some problems for FSU's defense, especially early in the game. Keeping the Duke offense out of the end zone and limiting those red-zone opportunities to FG attempts will really help in managing and controlling the game. On the other side, FSU has been excellent in the Red Zone scoring 96% of the time and delivering touchdowns 75% of the time. Makes sense right? I hear you, "Mark, you are an overly handsome has-been, that's some deep analysis. Make them try FG's while we score TDs." The thing is, it's a lot easier for me to type this than it will be for FSU to do it. The Duke defense is really good and smart and if Leonard plays, well ... a running QB that extends plays is a guarantee of red zone efficiency. Trading FGs is not the way to go, all that being said.

Prediction: Florida State 38, Duke 13

Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz

I think we all agree Duke is a good football team, well coached, and with impressive national statistics in numerous categories earned in wins over Clemson, Northwestern and NC State and a late loss to Notre Dame. Mike Elko is a good coach who has experience on a stage the size his team will face at Doak Campbell Stadium but his players have never heard what 80,000 Seminole fans sound like with a belly full of jet fuel.

Win the line of scrimmage: Everyone wants to be a football hero and Saturday will be the day for Odell Haggins' charges to be the hero. Win the line of scrimmage and neuter the Blue Devils. Duke has been heavily dependent on the run as an offensive college and to keep the ball away from opposing offenses. Duke's deliberate offense has typically held opponents to 10 or 11 possessions where they otherwise would have 11 or 12.

Win the line of scrimmage II: Alex Atkins' line also has an opportunity to be the segment that breaks the rock. Statistically speaking, Duke has not been as good against the run as they have the pass. While the Blue Devils are second in the nation in pass efficiency defense (55 percent completion percentage and three touchdowns), they are 60th in run defense (3.96 ypc), 56th in sacks and 28th in tackles for loss. which tells me they are vulnerable.

So watch the box. If Duke has to create a heavy box to stop the run, the Blue Devils' No. 2 ranking in pass efficiency defense and No. 8 ranking in passing defense will be sternly tested by the best perimeter threat the Duke secondary has faced in Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, Jaheim Bell, Kyle Morlock and company.

Prediction: Florida State 31, Duke 10

Osceola Managing Editor Bob Ferrante

Be(e)line to the Quarterback: Henry Belin could be thrown into a tough spot on Saturday, a redshirt freshman making start No. 2 on the road against a top-25 defense and a sold-out crowd. If Belin starts, and that’s a likely scenario given Riley Leonard suffered a high-ankle injury on Sept. 30 in the loss to Notre Dame, the Seminoles should bring relentless pressure. While defensive coordinator Adam Fuller prefers to rush four, and it’s a talented four regardless of who’s rotating in to the game, the Seminoles have had success mixing in blitzes from the likes of linebacker Kalen DeLoach and safety Shyheim Brown. Duke has a veteran line but, if FSU is able to bring more numbers and take calculated chances, the Seminoles should rattle Belin.

Balanced Attack: FSU’s ground game is back in gear, or at least accelerating following good rushing days against Virginia Tech (an awful rush defense) and Syracuse (a top-35 defense going into that game). For all of the attention on Jordan Travis, Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson, the Seminoles are at their best when they establish the ground attack. Duke might be the toughest challenge yet, or at least since Clemson. While 4- and 5-yard runs are effective and will help move the chains, the Seminoles will need some perimeter blocking (hello, receivers and tight ends) and give Trey Benson, Lawrance Toafili and others an opening for chunk plays. And, yes, Travis is a pass-first quarterback now, but a few well-timed runs will keep Duke’s defense thinking.

Prediction: FSU 27, Duke 17

Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham

Make Duke Throw It: This is a key no matter who plays at QB for Duke but especially if it is Henry Belin, who will be making his first college start on the road if he gets the nod on Saturday because Riley can't go. Against NC State the Blue Devils attempted just 12 passes, completing just four of them, although one of them was a long touchdown pass. Get Duke into secnd-and-long and third-and-long situations. They run the ball 57 percent of the time even Leonard is the quarterback and ran it 71 percent of the time last week in Belin's first start. Their passing game is predicated off being successful in the run game. Put them in uncomfortable down and distances and let FSU front seven get after the quarterback.

Match Duke's Mindset: The Blue Devils are a well-coached, physical football team that will want to prove that they are worthy of being in the ACC Championship Game picture and that their win over Clemson wasn't a fluke. And it wasn't. They will be motivated by the fact that they have a chance to beat FSU for this first time ever and the fact that they could beat the Seminoles and the Tigers in the same year for the first time ever. Duke's two-deep is filled with veterans who will be more than capable of weathering the excitement and adrenaline that will fill the early part of the game. FSU will need to match the Blue Devils' intensity and physicality for four quarters because I think Duke will make this a four-quarter game regardless of who plays quarterback.

Prediction: Florida State 26, Duke 17

Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler

Keep Doak Rocking: Here's a wild but true stat with an assist from Tom Block. The biggest crowd (announced attendance) Duke has played in front of this season is 40,768 people for its home game vs. Notre Dame. The smallest crowd (announced attendance) FSU has played in front of this season is 41,383 people at Boston College. Suffice it to say, Duke hasn't played in a hostile road environment remotely close to what it will face Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium in Mike Elko's tenure so far. If you're FSU, another fast defensive start and another touchdown on the opening drive would go a long way towards making things much harder for a Duke team that hasn't historically played in atmospheres like this as a ranked opponent.

Air it Out: I know this sounds counterintuitive going against a Duke team that ranks second nationally in PFF's coverage grade at 93.6. But I think the case can be made that the Blue Devils haven't faced a pair of wide receivers remotely in the same conversation as Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson (who should return this weekend) so far this season. I think it's quite possible the Blue Devils will trust their cornerbacks, leaving them on an island and stacking the box to take away the run. If FSU can exploit that, the pass should set up the run as it has a lot this season for the Seminoles. That's probably the key to breaking through against a Duke defense that has allowed 20 points just once in its first six games.

Prediction: FSU 31, Duke 13

Osceola Recruiting Analyst Charles Fishbein

Possession is 9/10ths of the Law: Duke has a very good defense. They give up less than 10 points a game. Their defense is very well coached. They don’t make mistakes. Control the clock and wear them down. The longer FSU controls the clock the better their chances of winning the game get. Anytime you’re a big favorite the other team's best shot at winning the game is getting turnovers. Against Clemson it was two big fumble recoveries that helped Duke pull off the upset. If they are going to beat FSU, Duke will need to do the same thing to the Seminoles.

Let's Get Physical: Duke is no longer a pushover for the Seminoles. They will fight and claw their way to a victory. FSU needs to be able to beat them up front. The Duke Blue Devils don’t have a ton of depth on both sides of the ball so the best way to beat them is wear them down physically. FSU is bigger on both sides of the football.

The Oh, Riley is playing Factor: If Riley Leonard plays this becomes a ball game. Leonard can beat defenses with both his arm and legs. He is one of the more mobile quarterbacks FSU will face. The Seminoles have struggled against quarterbacks that can run. Leonard is a difference maker with the ball in his hands. If he does not play FSU has a much better shot at winning.

Prediction: FSU 27, Duke 17

Osceola Writer Nick Carlisle

Make It Count: Florida State has a 12-game streak of scoring 30 points or more. That genuinely may be on the line against a Duke defense that is the fourth-best scoring defense in the country. With Duke quarterback Riley Leonard being day-to-day in terms of availability, it will likely be a steady diet of running the ball whether redshirt freshman Henry Belin gets the starting nod or not. Duke has an experienced defense, is extremely well coached and will run the football. This, to me, screams of a game in which offensive possessions are going to be at a premium and Florida State cannot afford to get cute like they did against Syracuse last week and leave points on the field — especially if given a chance to put Duke away early. Making the most of your possessions and — even better — cashing in on extra ones, will be key in a game that might see a lot of running the football.

A Complete Game from Jordan: It feels odd to have two offensive keys with an offense that has been really good but this feels like a game in which Jordan Travis will need to be 'on it' in the passing game. Don't get me wrong, Travis has been good this season, but we have yet to see a complete game from him in an outing that wasn't a blowout. Duke has the 8th-best passing defense and a slightly below average run defense (63rd). If the running game were consistent up until this point in the season, it wouldn't be a concern. However, since it's not a forgone conclusion that the running game will be as effective as the numbers would project, this may turn into a game in which Florida State needs Jordan Travis to win it. A Travis Takeover, if you will. He is due.