11/3/2023 football Edit

Staff predictions, keys to an FSU win over Pitt

Pressuring the quarterback and limiting Pitt's run game are among our keys. (USA Today Sports)

Patrick Burnham • TheOsceola

Football/Recruiting Analyst

FSU enters its game against Pitt on the road as three-touchdown favorite and is just a win away from locking up a spot in the ACC title game. The Panthers have to upset FSU and then the rest of their regular season games to make themselves bowl-eligible. The Osceola staff offers their keys to an FSU booking a trip Charlotte and guaranteeing that Pitt doesn't see the postseason.

Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva

FSU goes to Pittsburgh 8-0 and ranked No. 4 in the first CFP standings of the 2023 season and a 20-point favorite. Nothing to see here, right? I hope so but college football is unpredictable as evidenced by results every week. For FSU to avoid a letdown and keep on track the focus needs to be week to week and not look ahead and fall into the pomp and circumstance of all the talk of postseason.

Steady with the Rock: Pitt has struggled on offense this year. Their OL has been decimated by injuries and QB play has been a problem. The only way I think Pitt can generate significant points is if FSU turns the ball over, surrendering field position and giving the Pitt offense a short field. Whether it is turnover on downs, fumbles, or INT's ball security for the FSU offense is key.

Hope: The Pitt defense will offer a pretty decent challenge. Pat Narduzzi is as solid a defensive coach as there is and his secondaries are usually pretty salty and clever. They may give FSU problems early. Last week they were able to generate early turnovers vs. Notre Dame but the inability of the offense to capitalize took the wind out of the sails and the defense looked dejected. FSU's defense needs to continue this trend. Stifle an offense that struggles in pass protection but will try to take some shots downfield. Dominate up front in the run game. Pretty much like they did vs Wake Forest last week, a dominating performance early will resonate on both sides of the ball and hopefully make Pitt realize that resistance is futile.

Prediction: FSU 45, Pitt 13

Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz

Injured pride or clawless?: If not for the shocking upset of Louisville, there's nothing statistically to suggest the Panthers (2-6) have any shot Saturday other than the threat of hurt pride on the home turf for the junior-senior-dominated Panthers. Don't give the Panthers hope.

Pack your briefcase: Make this a business trip. Go qualify for the ACC Championship game, a preseason goal, while laying down a statistically-sharp performance for the judges of the College Football Playoff beauty pageant. Like every other game, the keys to this one are all about FSU. Set ambitious goals, a shutout for the defense, and a walkabout for punter Alex Mastromanno.

It's November. Time for the work, the learning, a year's worth of "squeeze" to produce the "juice".

Prediction: Florida State 41, Pittsburgh 10

Osceola Managing Editor Bob Ferrante

Blitzburg: Pitt’s Christian Villeux will be making his third career start. While he’s had moments of brilliance, leading an upset of Louisville, he’s often erratic. And the Panthers have an injury-depleted line, one that has given up 16 sacks in eight games. The Seminoles are at their best when they bring more heat than just the front four, so it’s fair to expect more linebacker and safety blitzes to rattle Villeaux. This could be a good opportunity for the likes of Kalen DeLoach and safety Shyheim Brown to apply pressure.

Arms Wide Open: Johnny Wilson, Destyn Hill and Hykeem Williams each missed the Wake game due to undisclosed injuries. How much they play, or if they do, are uncertain. Darion Williamson had an impressive one-handed catch in practice Wednesday and has impressed in limited reps, as have Kentron Poitier and Ja’Khi Douglas. Regardless of who’s available at receiver, or which tight end options are on the field, Jordan Travis should do what he’s been doing: Distribute the ball, not evenly but using a variety of options, he connected with eight Seminoles in the win at Wake last week.

Prediction: FSU 38, Pitt 13

Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham

Don't be Disrupted: Pitt's defense has been mostly mediocre this season by the standards they have set under coach Pat Narduzzi. However, the Panthers are still one of the most disruptive defenses in the country. The Panthers' defense ranks 18th in the country in TFLs and 23rd in sacks. The key to victory for FSU on offense is to win the line of scrimmage and don't allow the Panthers to play on FSU's side of it. Sacks and TFLs can be momentum builders and sometimes lead to turnovers. Pitt will bring pressure from the second and third level of the defense via the blitz vs. the run and the pass. The Seminoles' offensive linemen need to do a good job of playing on the same page and in knowing their responsibilities. FSU will want to throw the ball as Pitt hasn't defended the pass very well (they rank 123rd in yards per completion). Keep Travis clean (and healthy) and allow him to take advantage of the talented playmakers at the Seminoles' skill positions in the passing game.

Riverboat Gambler: Expect the unexpected. Pitt is playing with house money. It has to pull off one of the biggest upsets in the ACC, if not college football, this season to keep his team's chances of going to a bowl alive. I think Narduzzi will push all his chips to the middle of the field. All three of Pitt's games after FSU are winnable. The Panthers likely can't expect their offense to keep up with FSU's. So, Narduzzi will have to get his team some extra possessions. Be on the lookout for onside kicks, fake field goals, fake punts, selling out to block a punt, attempting fourth-down conversions to extend drives and trick plays. I don't think they will leave anything in bag- is now their biggest game of the year and I think they will sell out to try to pull off the upset.

Prediction: FSU 37, Pitt 20

Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler

No Running Near the River: I think we saw the FSU defense’s most dominant showing of the season last week in Winston-Salem. The defensive line set a tone of disruption from the opening minutes that carried through for the majority of the game. I don’t think Pitt’s offensive line is as bad as the Wake Forest line FSU just went up against. But it is a unit that has been ravaged by injuries and really struggled to do enough to get the Panthers’ run game going consistently. Another week of taking away the run and making the opponent one-dimensional would pave the path to another runaway win.

Steady with the Rock II: Pitt’s defense hasn’t been especially great this season, ranking 95th nationally in points per game allowed (28.8) and 123rd nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.4). But one area that the Panthers’ defense has done fairly well of late is forcing turnovers. In three October games, the Panthers forced seven turnovers, six of which were interceptions. Jordan Travis has done a very impressive job this season taking care of the football, with two interceptions in eight games. But mistakes against this defense might be taken advantage of. And too many turnovers could give Pitt the juice it needs to pull a sizable upset.

Prediction: FSU 48, Pitt 13

Osceola Recruiting Analyst Charles Fishbein

No Slow Starts: FSU seems to take some time this season to get going. This is a game the Seminoles want to start strong and make Pitt believe they have no shot to win.

Pitt usually relies on the run game to win games. This year their leading back has fewer than 500 yards. Make sure to force Pitt to play behind the sticks and let your athletes on that side of the ball make plays. FSU's defense should give Pitt fits. If Pitt can’t slow the game down with the run game, the Panthers will be in for a long day.

These are two programs heading into different directions. As long as FSU's team does not catch the flu or not show up at all, this game should be a comfortable win for the Seminoles. After getting smacked around by Notre Dame, we expect this game to go the same way.

Prediction: FSU 48, Pittsburgh 17

Osceola Writer Nick Carlisle

Playing Like Favorites: The way that Florida State approached an ACC road game as a 21-point favorite last week against Wake Forest was about as good as it gets. The game was over by halftime, and it allowed FSU to get some young players some reps in the second half. For the second straight week, the Seminoles will be traveling on the road as a 21-point favorite — this time against a 2-6 Pitt that just got spanked by Notre Dame. Florida State has a chance to clinch a spot in the ACC championship game on Saturday. If you are Florida State, you cannot get distracted by Miami coming into town next week. This is a game that a lot of people circled on the calendar as a potential trap game and, while Pitt is struggling more than we thought this season, they have already upset a top 25 team in Louisville. As long as Florida State enters the game with the same intent to handle business as the Seminoles did last week, there is no reason why they won't book a trip to their first ACC Championship game since 2014.

Steady with the Rock III: Pitt's offense is, to be frank, a bit of a mess. It ranks in the bottom third of most statistical categories and despite an offensive explosion against Louisville, quarterback Christian Veilleux has failed to muster more offense and threw four INTs against Notre Dame. This is an offense that Florida State should dominate. With all of that being said, what will give Pitt a fighting chance is if Florida State turns the ball over. It's not a problem that this FSU offense tends to have but Pitt has a very opportunistic and aggressive defense. A short field here, a scoop and score there, and this is a ballgame. It needs to be (and it should be) a clean day from the offense to handle business at Pittsburgh.