10/13/2023 football Edit

Staff predictions, keys to an FSU win over Syracuse

Kalen DeLoach and FSU have familiarity facing Syracuse's mobile QB, Garrett Shrader. (Mark Konezny / USA Today Sports)

Patrick Burnham • TheOsceola

Football/Recruiting Analyst

No.4 FSU will take on Syracuse at noon on Saturday in Doak Campbell Stadium in the second game of a three game homestand. The Seminoles are 17.5-point favorite over the Orange, who have lost two straight ACC games to Clemson and North Carolina.

The Osceola staff offers their keys to an FSU win over Syracuse on Saturday afternoon.

Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva

Hat for Hat: Offensively, this game rests on the OL's ability to get a hat on a hat. Syracuse runs the 3-5-3 defense, which means a lot of ambiguous looks designed to get free runners, overloads, numbers, and big TFLs and sacks. It also leaves the possibility of big seams in the running game and uncovered receivers. There are a couple of ways to handle this type of scheme: Spread it out and make them declare or bunch 'em up and gap scheme the running game. We have the ability to do both, but the bottom line is you need to be sure to cover up the defensive guys, hat for hat. No free runners or ending up on the edges of defenders. Premium on the offensive line sorting it out and running backs being patient. I believe FSU's OL could push Syracuse around if they get on guys.

Shut down Shrader: From the defensive perspective, Garrett Schrader is another dual threat QB that can make first downs with his legs. Will FSU try to play with a light box and two safeties? Or play single safety with a spy? Whatever Adam Fuller decides, one thing I think is to make them one dimensional. I don't think they have the skill to score a lot through the passing game so minimizing the impact of the running game and Shrader's improvisation means committing to stop the run.

Prediction: Florida State 42, Syracuse 10

Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz

Talk to Me: There will be a premium on recognition and communication this week on offense. Center Maurice Smith, quarterback Jordan Travis and everyone else in the communication chain of command will need to be on point Saturday as they will face a defense with an unorthodox 3-3-5 scheme with the capability of bringing exotic pressures to disrupt the line of scrimmage. The Orange defense is among the better defenses FSU has played thus far from a statistical standpoint. Cuse is tied for 30th in scoring defense (19 PPG), 34th in rushing defense (3.04 YPC, 114 YPG) and tied for 13th in 4th down stops (6 or 18 converted or 33 percent). Interesting to see how FSU adapts if necessary.

Shut down Shrader Part II: Surprise, the Seminoles' defense has another dual threat quarterback to contain in senior Garrett Shrader, who is tied for 27th in points responsible for with three guys you may have heard of: Clemson's Cade Klubnik, FSU's Jordan Travis and Michigan's JJ McCarthy. Shrader is built like Virginia Tech's quarterback Kyron Drones but with three years of starting experience against Florida State. The defensive key is the cat and mouse game between Shrader and FSU linebacker Kalen DeLoach, who has faced Shrader three times, and would be the most likely candidate to put a governor on the motor of the Orange offense. Shrader has fewer passing TDs (8) than Klubnik (11) or Jordan (12). He averages 5.18 YPC with six touchdowns rushing compared to Jordan (2), Klubnik and McCarthy (3), so he is definitely capable of chewing up grass as he did to FSU in 2021. Shrader is ranked 50th in passing efficiency (102-158 for a 142.5 YPG) with eight TDs against five interceptions. By way of comparison Klubnik is not ranked among the top 50, while Jordan's pass efficiency is No. 27 (158.58) and JJ McCarthy's is No. 4 (189.54).

Prediction: Florida State 34, Syracuse14

Osceola Managing Editor Bob Ferrante

Win Short Yardage Situations: The Seminoles are in the middle of a three-game stretch where they will be facing taller, thicker and mobile quarterbacks. First up was Kyron Drones (6-2, 222 pounds), followed by 6-4, 225-pound Garrett Shrader and then (potentially) 6-4, 212-pound Riley Leonard. The type of physicality these three offer could make third downs and possibly short fourth-down conversions miserable for FSU. The Seminoles have been hit-and-miss on third downs this year, in part due to their own fault (alignment or missed tackles, among them) but often because they are facing mobile quarterbacks — and those guys are just tough to stop with any consistency in modern college football. But as long as FSU is facing bigger bodies at QB, limiting the big runs as well as stopping the tempo with first-down conversions will be the No. 1 key.

Spread the Love: What didn't show up in the box score last week were Ja'Khi Douglas and Kentron Poitier catching passes. Poitier was praised by Mike Norvell for his blocking, while Douglas adjusted well to an underthrown ball but dropped it. There's been a respectable amount of criticism about the variety of passes and pass-catchers in the FSU offense but getting these two back from injury (as well as involving Darion Williamson more) will help FSU open up the playbook. It's worth mentioning that 10 Seminoles were targeted against Virginia Tech. The Seminoles need to continue to mix in various options, from receivers to tight ends to tailbacks.

Prediction: 38, Syracuse 10

Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham

Shut down Shrader Part III: Really, and as you will read multiple times in this article, FSU must shut down Garrett Shrader's ability to run the ball. If he can't run, the Orange can't win. Opposing defenses have made a habit of living in the Syracuse backfield this season, especially Clemson and UNC. FSU's front seven needs to dominate the line of scrimmage and force Syracuse to pass. Shrader has been accurate this season but is without Oronde Gadsden Jr., who was their best player, and the Orange OL has not done a good job of protecting Shrader against good competition. Jared Verse, Patrick Payton and Braden Fiske should have a field day if Adam Fuller's defense can put the Orange in long-yardage situations. This game from a defensive perspective totally lies with the Seminoles' front seven.

Air Jordan: I am usually a proponent of running to open up the passing game and wouldn't mind if that is how this game ultimately plays out, but Syracuse is much better defending the run than the pass. With that being the case and FSU having some serious weapons at wide receiver and tight end to go along with some capable pass catchers out of the backfield, I think FSU needs to throw the ball early and often. Push the ball downfield and challenge a Syracuse secondary that has struggled. Against Clemson and North Carolina, the Orange gave up 705 yards through the air on 56 of 86 passing. They have the blueprint, now FSU just needs to put their signature on it. Of course, FSU could just do what UNC did and just dominate on the ground and through the air while controlling the ball the entire game.

Prediction: Florida State 38, Syracuse 20

Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler

Air Control: Last week vs. VT, the Osceola staff urged the Seminoles to finally establish the run game against an opponent that seemed prime to be taken advantage of in that facet. Considering FSU ran for 282 yards last week and Trey Benson became FSU's first 200-yard rusher since Dalvin Cook, that's a major mission accomplished. But consistent success on the ground may be harder to find this week. The Orange rank 18th nationally, allowing just 3.04 yards per carry so far this season. However, Syracuse's defense seems exploitable through the air. The Orange allowed UNC quarterback Drake Maye to throw for 442 yards and three touchdowns last week. Considering Orange head coach Dino Babers said this week that Jordan Travis is even better than Maye and FSU has a comparable group of wide receivers/tight ends even if Johnny Wilson is unable to go, it seems that FSU can follow a similar recipe this week with a heavy dose of the passing game.

Shut down Shrader Part IV: The last time these teams played in Tallahassee, Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader ran for three touchdowns and nearly led the Orange to a win over the Seminoles. Last year in Syracuse, he completed fewer than 50% of his passes, threw for just 65 yards and ran for -2 yards. Looking into his PFF numbers, Shrader has been much better this season when he has a clean pocket (82.7 grade, seven big-time throws) than when under pressure (50.1 grade, two big-time throws, five turnover-worthy plays). With leading wide receiver Oronde Gadsden out for the season due to injury, Shrader shouldn't have the skill-position talent to consistently beat FSU's defense. Pressuring him and forcing him into a bad decision (he's thrown an interception in five of FSU's six games this season) would likely pave the path to a sweat-free victory for the Seminoles.

Prediction: Florida State 41, Syracuse 14

Osceola Recruiting Analyst Charles Fishbein

Shut down Shrader Part V: FSU has struggled at times stopping running quarterbacks. Shrader has rushed 71 times this season for 368 yards. He has also scored six times. The last time Shrader came to Tallahassee he ran on the FSU defense. If Shrader can run the ball and have success, this game could end up closer than expected. Sophomore RB LeQuint Allen has over 400 yards rushing in six games. He has seven touchdowns. Along with Shrader, FSU must slow down the Orange on the ground. Stop them and FSU should win comfortably.

Long Distance: Shrader is a decent passer. He completes almost 65 percent of his passes. His success in the pass game will come if he is able to run the ball. If FSU is able to put Syracuse in long yardage situations, they should win the game.

Prediction: Florida State 40, Syracuse 23

Osceola Writer Nick Carlisle

Keep Your Dukes Up: Florida State has everything they need to dominate this game at home. They have home field, they have two years of tape on Shrader, they have confidence, and they have Syracuse coming in after getting boat raced by North Carolina. Florida State has all the tools to have that same success, but will the mental edge be there? It's really the only question yet to be answered about this Seminoles team. We've finally seen the running game get its legs. We saw FSU stop a mobile QB last week. But can they put together four complete quarters with a more anticipated matchup coming in next week? It's been the point of emphasis for Mike Norvell and his staff all week and it feels as though FSU is slowly creeping towards playing a complete game after slamming the door on Virginia Tech last week. Perhaps this week will be the week it all comes together.

Shut down Shrader Part VI: I know, I know - a 'control the trenches' key. Very unique insight. But a dominant showing from the defensive line would do wonders here. Syracuse lacks weapons offensively, especially with star receiver Oronde Gadsen being out for the season. Sophomore RB LeQuint Allen had been explosive early in the season, but since Syracuse faced good competition the last two weeks, there has been a drop off. This has led to Shrader, once again, carrying the load for the Orange. Defenses have lived in Syracuse's backfield and if the Seminoles' talented defensive line can have a statement game, it'll be a long day for Shrader. He's been sacked 16 times in six games and has thrown five INT's, including one in each of his last four games. It seems backwards considering FSU's weakness is pass defense, but they have been great against the traditional run, so making Shrader a passer and letting the defensive line pin their ears back is how FSU can finish this one early.