Altered State: Will high-profile hires affect recruiting in Florida?
Florida State and Jimbo Fisher are in a fifth consecutive New Year's Six/BCS bowl game, while Florida and Jim McElwain have won consecutive SEC East championships. Meanwhile, Miami could win nine games in Mark Richt's first season.
Not surprisingly, the Sunshine State's "Big Three" have each parlayed that success into top-20 recruiting rankings.
But with a spate of high-profile coaching changes across the state, could that mean more competition for top in-state recruits going forward?
South Florida hired former Texas coach Charlie Strong last week, while Florida Atlantic landed Alabama offensive coordinator and former Southern Cal coach Lane Kiffin on Tuesday. Former Miami and North Carolina coach Butch Davis left ESPN in November to take over at Florida International. And Central Florida went from 0-12 in 2015 to 6-6 in its first year under Scott Frost.
It's a topic that has created discussion among media and fans.
But recruiting experts and high school football insiders interviewed by Warchant.com suggest that the Gators, Hurricanes and Seminoles have nothing to worry about -- at least not for the time being.
"It doesn't mean anything," Rivals national recruiting analyst Mike Farrell said. "To me, the only time that type of stuff means something is when you have a weakness at a power program in state."
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Farrell cited the state of Texas. The Longhorns slumped during their final four seasons under former head coach Mack Brown and fared no better under Strong. That prolonged downturn allowed programs like Baylor, Houston, Texas A&M and TCU to create a foothold, sway recruits and win games.
Since the 2010 season, TCU [64 wins] Baylor [63], Houston [61] and Texas A&M [60] have all won more games than Texas [46].
It's a different dynamic in Florida, with FSU being the dominant program. Fisher and the Seminoles have won 77 games since his hiring in 2010. Only Alabama and Ohio State have recorded more wins in that time. FSU won a national title in 2013 and also has the distinction of possessing the state's longest-tenured coach.
Fisher, who is 17-1 against in-state teams, has more years in at FSU than the state's other FBS coaches have in their current jobs combined.
Florida has won 55 games during that time frame, while UCF is third with 53. Miami has 51 wins, followed by USF with 40. FIU has 32 and FAU has 22.
"If you're a four-star and have a chance to go to Wisconsin or FAU, where are you going?" South Florida-based recruiting analyst Larry Blustein said. "That's what I am saying. No matter who is coaching -- I don't care if its Butch Davis or Don Shula was there -- these kids are not going to go play in a situation where they have no shot at a bowl games."
Blustein, who has chronicled recruiting since the 1970s, said UCF and USF have strong enough profiles to lure better talent. He said FAU and FIU fall prey to playing "money games" at Power 5 programs to fund their athletic programs.
Those games, he said, are usually automatic losses, which is hardly a selling point. He also pointed out that schools like FAU and FIU are not even power players in Conference USA.
"They may keep a couple kids that have gone to Troy State or Louisiana-Monroe or those types of schools," Blustein said. "But there's no way a kid is going to say, 'Coach Davis, I want to play for you so much that I am going to blow off Alabama.'"
According to Farrell, the other state schools have to offer something that the "Big Three" won't. He used Cocoa running back Bruce Judson, a USF commit, as an example. Judson is a four-star prospect who has offers from FSU, UF and Miami, along with programs like Alabama and Ohio State, to whom he was once committed.
Judson, who is 5-foot-9 and 184 pounds, wants to play quarterback in college. He could get that chance at USF or Oregon. Former Bulls coach Willie Taggart, now at Oregon, recently extended an offer to Judson.
"FSU, Florida and Miami would never look him at a million years as a quarterback," Farrell said. "Taggart saw that opportunity. They like what Charlie Strong is going to do, and that’s the perfect example of someone who would spurn bigger offers to go to USF."
Historically speaking, there is evidence that the state's smaller schools can land gems when presented the right circumstances. Daunte Culpepper, T.Y. Hilton, Jason Pierre-Paul and Josh Sitton all went on to have NFL careers after playing for the non-"Big Three" schools in Florida.
Finding and developing those sorts of talents are why high school coaches say there's a chance the smaller schools could make an impact.
Daytona Beach Mainland's Scott Wilson said it's a matter of finding the right selling points. He pointed out that UCF played in the 2013 Fiesta Bowl, while Miami and UF haven't played in a New Year's Six bowl game since 2005 and 2012, respectively.
Miami's last season of 10 or more wins came in 2003, when it went 11-2. UCF has won 10 or more games four times in that span, while USF recently completed its first regular season of 10 or more wins.
"Anything is possible if kids are sent the right message," Wilson said. "UCF is in the top five in graduation rates. If players pay attention to those type of things and the coaches Coach Frost has around him, they can get football players who could make a huge impact."
Miramar coach Pierre Senatus recalled the 2015 season, when Florida needed overtime to beat FAU. That same year, FAU hosted Miami and trailed only 20-17 at halftime before falling in a 44-20 defeat.
Senatus, who is a former Miami Booker T. Washington assistant, said the latest round of coaching hires could mean that under-the-radar prospects will choose smaller, in-state schools over programs like Temple or Wake Forest.
"There's a kid who he could be a rising junior or senior kid who has not had the stars, who was not the best kid as a ninth- or 10th-grader, but has grown and matured," Senatus said. "He might feel slighted. He might say, 'You recruited kids in my county and on my team, but not me.'
"That chip could win over a lot of those kids. Instead of going to Kentucky, maybe they go to USF or FIU or FAU."
Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas coach Roger Harriott said the hires made by FAU, FIU and USF are proof those schools are committed to investing in their football programs.
But at the same time, Harriott, a former FAU assistant, said hiring reputable coaches is only the first step. There will come a point when it becomes less about potential and more about results.
"Once the honeymoon period has passed, winning takes precedence over the coach's reputation," Harriott said. "Regardless of the coach, recruiting in Florida is very competitive as a result of our substantial talent pool within an esteemed football culture."
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