What if ... FSU Football pulls off season-opening upset of Notre Dame?
As the 2021 preseason approaches -- FSU opens fall camp this Saturday -- Warchant's staff will examine several different "What if?" scenarios regarding the Florida State football team.
These are not predictions that these events will happen, but a hypothetical analysis of how the Seminoles' season would be impacted if they did.
Next up in this series is a look at FSU's season opener against Notre Dame.
It has been five years since Florida State last won a season-opening game. In 2017, the 'Noles fell to Alabama in Atlanta; in 2018, they lost to Virginia Tech at home; in 2019, they blew a 31-13 lead at home to Boise State; and in 2020, they squandered a 10-0 halftime lead at home against Georgia Tech.
Could this be the first year since 2016 that FSU opens a season with a 1-0 record? And if so, what could that mean for the rest of the season and also the Seminoles' highly rated 2022 recruiting class?
That is the premise of today's, "What if?"
Previous installments:
* What if ... FSU's defense makes jump into top 50 or top 60 nationally?
* What if ... Andrew Parchment produces for FSU like he did in 2019?
* What if ... Jermaine Johnson is an elite pass-rusher for FSU Football?
* What if ... McKenzie Milton plays for FSU like he did in 2017-18?
***Don't miss out on our great FSU Football and Recruiting coverage. Get your 30-day FREE trial!***
What if FSU, a 9.5-point underdog, can knock off Notre Dame on Sept. 5 in Doak Campbell Stadium?
Answering this question are Warchant founder and administrator Gene Williams, managing editor Ira Schoffel, senior writer Corey Clark, director of digital media Aslan Hajivandi and director of original content Tom Lang. (Also watch the video above for a conversation featuring Tom, Ira and Warchant recruiting analyst Michael Langston.)
GENE: After losing four straight openers, Florida State is due to begin a season in the win column. And it’s not just rough starts that have plagued this program lately. Between Jimbo Fisher checking out in 2017, the Willie Taggart disaster, COVID-19 and last season’s embarrassing 3-6 record, it’s been one setback after another. As a result, the Seminole fan base is desperate for something positive to happen.
The 2021 home opener versus Notre Dame presents the ultimate opportunity to shift FSU’s recent misfortunes.
Florida State currently has the No. 5-ranked recruiting class, according to Rivals.com. The only thing that could jeopardize that class would be a disappointing season. Recruits are buying into the notion that Mike Norvell and his staff are righting the ship. However, we all know things could change if the team fails to show any signs of progress this fall. But if FSU can knock off the Irish in the opener, it’s a near certainty that the 2021 season will be successful enough to keep the class intact, and it might even open doors to more elite recruits.
There’s also a financial component if the season gets off to a positive start. It’s no secret that FSU athletics has struggled to pay the bills and keep up with the Joneses (SEC, Big Ten). While the school is locked into its meager share from the ACC, early season excitement would likely result in an increase in booster donations, ticket sales and merchandise. A winning program would also boost the value of the school’s apparel deals (Nike) and marketing rights (Learfield IMG). A big win on national television versus a traditional powerhouse would be a great start to reverse FSU’s recent financial woes.
COREY: As noted above, it has been since 2016 that FSU fans have felt what it’s like to be 1-0. So, that in itself would be a reason to be excited. But more than that, it would be an enormous confidence boost for a roster and a coaching staff that hasn’t had much reason to exude confidence. If the Seminoles can pull off the upset, in prime time, against Notre Dame of all teams, then I think it could make some real believers in that locker room. The fan base, too, but more importantly the locker room.
I’m sure most of the players believe in Mike Norvell and his vision. I’m sure they feel like they’re all in. But belief is one thing. An actual victory, a tangible result that pays off all the hard work and sacrifice, would be an injection of confidence into every single person associated with the program. And confidence, as we all know, is a huge part of athletic success. It would also scare the bejesus out of your rivals. Because they’ve seen what Norvell has done in the transfer portal and on the recruiting trail, even after dismal seasons. If he can start showing serious results ON the field, too, at FSU? That could lead to a pretty loud “uh oh” from the other teams in the state.
ASLAN: If FSU wins that game, I will promptly look up which bowls will be the site of this year's College Football Playoff and crowdsource for restaurant recommendations all week long on the podcast and Twitter. Even if it’s an “ugly” win, a la Miami 2005, it won’t bring fans off of cloud nine. Much like that game, it’s just been so brutally long since FSU has enjoyed success in that specific setting. If you’re a fan, you would have a whole new world of hope and optimism to enjoy -- stress-free, mind you, for two weeks before your next challenge.
That 2016 game vs. Ole Miss — the last season-opening win — was as much a sigh of relief as a celebration. A win over Notre Dame would be the most uplifting Week 1 win since, what, Pitt in 2013? I think a 1-0 start resets the entire schedule to where Wake Forest in Week 3 isn’t as daunting, and the set-up now becomes a showdown in Chapel Hill, where you get to empty the tank with a cushy bye week awaiting you ... and maybe the circus of "College GameDay" welcomes you to Clemson a few weeks later.
TOM: As Aslan said, an upset of Notre Dame would alter the trajectory of what is possible in 2021 and in the years to follow. No, I'm not saying a 10-win season would be on the table this fall, but the upset would "count" two or three-fold over most other games since it will stand alone on national TV.
Mike Norvell and staff are desperately searching for proof of concept in order to lock down the 2021 class. Short of completely collapsing the rest of the season, a win over Notre Dame could accomplish the proof of concept mission in just 60 minutes. And given the expected visitor list for Labor Day weekend, recruiting momentum would be teed up right at the outset of the season. You want good exposure for the program? Downing the Irish is the quickest path to making a genuine statement and locking up signatures this December.
IRA: The concern with high-profile games like this to start a season is they begin to feel like all-or-nothing propositions. Remember when FSU went to Norman, Okla., in Week 2 of Jimbo Fisher's first season after a tune-up against Samford, and the 'Noles got clobbered 47-17? Walking out of that stadium, it felt like, "Oh boy, this could be another bad year." Instead, the 'Noles peeled off five straight victories and went on to win 10 games.
So no matter what happens on Sunday, Sept. 5, it doesn't necessarily define the entire season. But because of the way this particular season sets up, a win over Notre Dame would be huge because it really would open the door to a 4-1 or 5-0 start. The next toughest game in those opening five would be Wake Forest on the road, followed by Louisville at home. So 5-0 is certainly on the table with a win over the Irish.
A start like that would almost certainly lock up this 2022 recruiting class and, as Gene mentioned, would have a very strong impact financially. FSU fans would gobble up any remaining tickets for the final games of the season and also likely step up contributions to Seminole Boosters. FSU also would once again become relevant on the national stage, leading to a ton of hype heading into a showdown with North Carolina on Oct. 9.
I don't know that I would predict an upset over Notre Dame, but I don't envision the game to be an embarrassment by any stretch. The Irish will be breaking in a new quarterback, several new offensive linemen and key players on defense. With their first game coming on the road in a hostile atmosphere, I would not expect Brian Kelly to come in with an ultra-aggressive attack. So even if FSU can't pull off the upset, there's a very good chance the game will be respectable and still seen as progress for the program.
But if the 'Noles win ... at home ... in prime time ... with 100 or more recruits in attendance ... inside the first packed stadium since the 2019 season ... against Notre Dame ... it could be one of the most magical nights that building has seen in a long time.
----------------------------------------------------
Talk about this story with other Florida State sports fans in the Tribal Council.