This has certainly been an unexpected resurgence by the Florida State men's basketball team.
When the Seminoles lost at home to Lipscomb on Dec. 30 to fall to 6-6 on the season, it seemed all but certain that FSU was staring down another brutal season and a likely tragic end to head coach Leonard Hamilton's tenure.
All FSU has done since is win six of its last seven games, all against ACC competition, to improve to 12-7 and sit alone in second place in the conference standings at 6-2.
A season that was once lost has certainly been found, at least to some degree. But what have been the reasons for this shocking turnaround?
Here's a statistical comparison of some key numbers from FSU's first 12 games of the season and its most recent seven.
The above data points out the many ways in which this team truly has turned a new leaf in the new year. Through seven January games against significantly tougher competition on a game-by-game basis, FSU is scoring more points, making a higher percentage of its shots and free throws and committing fewer turnovers while forcing almost as many.
The bottom two statistics feel particularly relevant to FSU's improvement. In non-conference play, FSU allowed offensive rebounds at an unsustainably high rate. Colorado and Florida had 18 and 17 offensive rebounds, respectively, against the Seminoles while SMU (15), Central Michigan (13) and Lipscomb (10) all reached double figures as well.
In the seven games so far this month, no team has reached double-digit offensive rebounds against FSU. Jaylan Gainey's growing comfort as he gets further removed from his injury has been a major aid to FSU's inside presence. However, Baba Miller, Cam Corhen and others have also taken their game to another level to give FSU the inside presence it badly needed early in the season.
Additionally, FSU's bench points have ramped up during its recent run of success. Hamilton's teams have become nationally known for their depth, but early this season when Gainey was still out and Primo Spears was not yet eligible, that was proving harder to be the case.
As FSU has gotten healthier (with the exception of Cam'Ron Fletcher's tragic season-ending injury), the team's depth has become more evident. FSU has had 40-plus bench points in three of its last seven games.
Having more bench points per game during this recent stretch than the stretch of largely-non-conference games to start the season — games which often provide the opportunity for the bench to play extensive minutes due to a lopsided score — is quite impressive.
So how does FSU's postseason resume look?
FSU has played this month like a team worthy of an NCAA Tournament berth. However, the first two months of the season can't be ignored and certainly won't be ignored by the NCAA selection committee.
As such, FSU still has plenty more work to be done if it wants to truly get into the March Madness conversation for the first time since its last appearance in 2021.
While FSU is currently second in the ACC standings, it is 83rd in the NET rankings (a key criteria considered by the committee), 11th out of 15 ACC teams. FSU is 2-2 in Quadrant 1 games and 3-2 in Q2 games, but three Q3 losses loom large and are weighing FSU's resume down pretty significantly.
Over its recent run of success, FSU's NET ranking has improved dramatically. The Seminoles bottomed out at No. 142 in the NET after their loss to Lipscomb.
Still, there's plenty of work left to be done. In the first six year of the NET, the lowest-ranked team to ever get in was Rutgers at No. 77 in 2022. While the Knights were 18-13 with three Q3 losses and one Q4 loss, they were also 6-6 in Q1 games.
Because of its slow start, FSU needs to keep stacking wins but also needs more quality wins. The status of wins can change, so teams FSU has beaten improving their NET standing could retroactively become Q1 wins for the Seminoles. Syracuse, who FSU beat on the road Tuesday, is only a few spots removed from the top 75.
However, the easiest way to make headway in the NET would be with marquee victories. FSU's home matchup vs. No. 3 North Carolina (16-3, 8-0 ACC) Saturday at 2 p.m. (ESPN) would certainly fit the bill. FSU could jump into the top 75 in the NET and really begin building a potential NCAA Tournament resume.
Of course, FSU could always win an auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament by winning the ACC Tournament in March. However, that's the high-pressure alternative that FSU can avoid if it just keeps winning, something it has done a lot of lately.
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