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Published Dec 9, 2020
Ham-alytics: FSU Basketball's first big test of season starts in paint
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Tom Lang  •  TheOsceola
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In a time of year meant for final exams, the 2020-21 Florida State men's basketball team will take its first test in the form of ACC-Big Ten Challenge opponent Indiana (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Today’s Ham-alytics, powered by the experts at Synergy Sports, will look at Indiana’s impressive paint presence and how it could present problems for Leonard Hamilton’s developing front court.

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Shot Map: Attacking the basket

Among the many neat tools in Synergy’s repertoire is a scouting chart that maps out the precise origin of every shot from the field. (And we here at Ham-alytics are grateful for the Synergy scouting department’s painstaking work.)

If you have checked out both introductory installments of this feature, you’ll recognize this first graphic. Here is Indiana’s offensive efficiency chart through its first four games of the 2020-21 campaign.

Now, let’s get more specific. Here is the chart in which Synergy shows where the Hoosiers went to work within the above zones.

The bigger the dot, the more frequent the shot. The largest dot means 11 or more shot attempts, with the number of attempts written inside the circle.

What stands out from both of these tools? Look at the volume of activity in the paint and at the basket. Now compare that to perimeter shot attempts. The basis of today’s insight is clear: Florida State’s big men will be tested in the paint.

Trayce Jackson-Davis

In the teams’ ACC-B1G meeting last year -- an early December game the Hoosiers won 80-64 in Bloomington -- forward Trayce Jackson-Davis played 35 minutes, racking up 15 points on just five attempts from the field.

How did he get to that level of output? It certainly wasn't a Scott Wood performance from three-point range. Jackson-Davis simply attacked from inside the paint, drawing boatloads of fouls in the process. He was 3-for-5 from the field and 9-for-14 from the free-throw line. Moreover, in a game Indiana beat FSU on the glass 35-25, Jackson-Davis pulled down eight boards.

This season, Jackson-Davis leads all Indiana scorers as he averages 21.5 points per game. His shot map hasn’t exactly expanded, either. Here is where the points are coming from:

It isn't always efficient, but it is almost always in the paint. This means Balsa Koprivica, Malik Osborne and the rest of the FSU front court will be tested in multiple ways.

First, can they stay on the floor? In 82 offensive possessions on the young season, the 6-foot-9, 245-pound Jackson-Davis has drawn a shooting foul nearly 25 percent of the time (he's 72.2 percent at the line this season). A continuation of that trend is the path to a high-point, low-attempt performance, just like in 2019’s matchup.

Second, the test will come on the glass. Can Koprivica, who only played six minutes in Bloomington as a true freshman, show enough development to battle and help the rebound margin? Was Osborne’s year-long development as a big man enough to prepare him to win some tough rebounds?

The Seminoles do a very good job of rebounding by committee -- with their guards often getting into the act -- but for a second game of the season, the Seminoles face quite a test.

Jekyll and Hyde

As will likely be the case for many teams early in 2020-21, a COVID-affected season will feature some drastic ups and downs. Indiana’s offense was putrid in its Maui Invitational game against Texas, averaging just over 0.6 points per possession. The Hoosiers' 44-point total was the lowest for the program since 2010.

However, Indiana bounced back nicely the next day against Stanford, a team with preseason NCAA Tournament expectations. The Hoosiers’ 79-63 win was powered offensively by, you guessed it, 31 points from Trayce Jackson-Davis.

Odds and Ends

* Indiana isn't a one-trick pony when it comes to getting to the basket. Spot-up looks are heavily outweighed by -- and less efficient than -- the combination of more active play types, as broken down by Synergy below.

* The Seminoles' frontcourt will need to be ready for junior forward Race Thompson as well. When the Hoosiers are at their peak, Thompson is the team’s best option cutting to the basket. In 12 such possessions this season (one-third of the team total), he ranks in the 94th percentile in efficiency. Thompson also has the team lead in rebounds through four games.

* Defensively, Thompson and Jackson-Davis have combined to hold opponents to 3-for-16 shooting from the post, drawing an elite grade from Synergy.

* Workhorse alert: Sophomore guard Armaan Franklin played all 40 minutes in the Hoosiers' win over Stanford. More impressive? He played 31 minutes the day before in the team's loss to Texas.

Earlier editions of Ham-alytics:

* Ham-alytics: 3 Key Returners for FSU Basketball in 2020-21 (Dec. 2)

* Introducing Ham-alytics: Advanced Stats on FSU Basketball (Nov. 18)

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