How improved was Florida State Football in 2021? Analytics deep dive

The Florida State football team upped its win total from three to five in 2021, but just how much improvement did the Seminoles really make?

A deep dive into the numbers shows that FSU was significantly better on both sides of the ball compared to 2020. The largest improvement came on defense, where Adam Fuller’s group jumped from No. 107 to No. 66 in total defense. Opposing offenses went from averaging 456.3 yards per game to just 377.8 (21 percent better).

A closer look at the defense shows it also improved as the season went on. During the second half of 2021, FSU’s defense gave up 7.7 less points and 71.5 fewer yards per game. That’s 150 yards and 9.5 fewer points compared to the team averages in 2020.

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The offense was slightly better compared to the 2020 season, but it made its greatest strides in the red zone and by cutting down on turnovers. The Seminoles' red-zone efficiency jumped from an embarrassing 74 percent conversion rate (No. 111 national rank) to converting over 90 percent of the time in 2021 (No. 17 rank). Turnovers were slightly better, dropping from 1.9 per game to 1.6 in 2021.

The improvement on both sides of the ball is even more apparent in the advanced analytics compiled by Pro Football Focus. Here’s a closer look at the most improved segments, and those that fell short of expectations.

No. 1 – Run Defense / Tackling

The Seminoles’ run defense gave up an average of 54.6 fewer yards per game compared to 2020. Opponents also went from averaging 5.1 yards per carry to just 3.6. This was the one area where Florida State cracked the top 10 in PFF’s team rankings. The ‘Noles’ run defense grade ramped up from 59.1 (No. 89 ranking) to 87.7 (No. 10). The improvement in stopping the run likely relates to better tackling, where FSU saw its grade jump from 65.8 to 81.6.

No. 2 – Passing offense

Interestingly, Florida State saw only a slight bump in raw passing numbers, going from 196.8 to 201.6 yards per game in 2021. The improvement in passing efficiency was a bit more noticeable, rising from No. 117 to No. 75. But the real jump came from the grades complied by PFF, going from a failing mark of 51.3 in 2020 to a very respectable 76.3 in 2021. That represents an increase in ranking from No. 115 to No. 48.

No. 3 – Pass Rush

Florida State’s had one of the nation's most anemic pass rushes in 2020, managing just nine total sacks in nine games (No. 119 national rank). That number jumped into the top 35 with 33 total sacks in 2021. Defensive end transfers Jermaine Johnson and Keir Thomas combined for more than half of that number with 18.5 total sacks.

The number of quarterback hurries also more than doubled, going from 18 to 44. The enhanced ability to get to the passer was also reflected in the final PFF grades. The pass rush mark improved from 64.9 to 80.3.

Honorable mention: Pass Blocking (59.3 to 68.0)

No. 1 Special Teams

This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that saw Florida State play special teams in 2021. The kicking and return units were dreadful and only got worse as the season progressed. The Seminoles’ special teams were decent in 2020, finishing with a PFF grade of 86.4, good for a No. 11 national ranking. The bottom fell out in 2021 with FSU’s grade plummeting to 67.9 (No. 102 ranking). Football Outsiders, another service proving advanced analytics, ranks FSU’s special teams at No. 106.

No. 2 Run Blocking / Rushing

Somewhat surprisingly, the Seminoles had slightly worse rushing numbers in 2021. Florida State averaged 22.1 fewer rushing yards per game and went from 5.1 to 4.8 yards per carry. This decline also showed up on PFF, with the rushing grade dropping from 86.4 to 80.9. Florida State’s mediocre rushing numbers are probably a result of poor run blocking – FSU’s PFF run-blocking grade has been well below 60 two years running (56.2 in 2020, 52.2 in 2021).

No. 3 Coverage (PFF only)

This is the one area where Pro Football Focus probably missed the mark. The Seminoles were noticeably better in pass coverage this year, especially during the second half of the season. In fact, the number of pass breakups more than doubled, going from 21 to 43. However, PFF’s grades actually showed a slight decline, going from 74.6 to 72.3. This is a case where what you see with your eyes should be trusted over analytics.

Jordan Travis was the team’s most improved player, according to PFF. The redshirt sophomore quarterback saw his passing grade go from a failing mark of 55.1 in 2020, to 82.3 in 2021. That represents a jump in the player rankings from No. 131 to No. 27. In traditional statistics, Travis saw his completion percentage go from 55.0 to 62.9 and his touchdown-to-interception ratio improve from 6:6 to 15:6.

Other players that saw their PFF grades improve by more than 10 points in 2021 include Dennis Briggs (76.3 / 56.5), Jammie Robinson (75.5 / 61.2 at South Carolina), Jermaine Johnson (81.1 / 70.0 at UGA), Akeem Dent (68.6 / 57.2), Kalen DeLoach (62.2 / 47.6), Ja'Khi Douglas (64.5 / 54.4), and Keyshawn Helton (66.2 / 48.7).

No full-time player saw a significant decrease in PFF grade in 2021.

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