Florida State enters its game on Saturday (7:30 p.m. on NBC) against 10th-ranked Notre Dame as a 26.5-point underdog. The Osceola staff offers their thoughts on what it will take for the Seminoles to pull of one of the biggest upsets of the 2024 college football season and what we would like to see from the Seminoles against the Irish in lieu of a win on the road.
Bob Ferrante
Play with physicality: Notre Dame features a top-20 rush offense (216.5 yards per game) and FSU has a bottom-20 rush defense (191 yards per game). For a second straight week, the Seminoles know exactly what’s coming at them. UNC racked up 289 rushing yards last week, and FSU has lost linebacker Justin Cryer for the game due to injury. On paper, the Seminoles don’t match up well. But after coach Mike Norvell questioned the team’s physicality, how will the Seminoles respond?
Time for a takeaway: FSU is -12 in turnovers. The Seminoles have forced just three while losing 15, a massive discrepancy as the team is tied for last in the FBS. FSU hasn’t had a takeaway since Sept. 28 at SMU, when Cryer recovered a muffed punt. A takeaway of any kind would give FSU momentum as a massive road underdog.
Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Florida State 10
Pat Burnham
Offense: If the Seminoles have any chance to winning this game, they must get the ball into Lawrance Toafili's hands at least 20 times. He is the best skill player on FSU's offense and he can line up all over the place. FSU will need some explosive plays that either go for touchdowns or set up scoring opportunities, and he is one of the few players on the Seminoles' offense that can flip the field in a hurry.
Secondly, and it is easier said than done, they will be hard to come by but some big plays in the passing game would help as well. FSU will need one of their receivers to have a career game to pull off the upset.
Of course, none of this happens without a much-improved performance from FSU's offensive line, which will face a stiff challenge vs. a tough Notre Dame front four.
Defense: Get off blocks and tackle. One of the reasons teams are having such success in the running game, especially running the inside zone, is because FSU can't get off blocks and make tackles at the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame will try to establish the inside run with their backs and then take advantage of that by running the QB in the zone read game on the perimeter. It's simple, FSU's front seven must get off blocks at the point of attack and make a tackle.
Tackling as a whole must improve. This team prefers leaving their feet and making arm tackles than they do coming to balance and running through the ball carrier. If tackling, especially on the second and third level of the defense, doesn't improve drastically the Irish will not need any luck in this game.
Be physically and mentally tough: Both sides of the ball need to play with more energy, effort, discipline, toughness and physicality. Those will be more important than anything FSU can do schematically in order to pull of an improbable upset.
The offense lacks confidence, and Notre Dame is very solid on defense. It will be hard to find it in South Bend. Outside of games against Duke, Cal and Memphis, the FSU defense hasn't been able to stop the run. Those teams featured the worst offensive lines the Seminoles have faced all season. You won't confuse the Irish offensive line with those three. If Notre Dame finds success on the ground early, the optic of this game might be similar to last week's loss to UNC.
Prediction: Notre Dame 40, Florida State 15
Mark Salva
Hope and change. It's all I got at this point. Hope that I will see something that hasn't been in evidence all season. Change in the demeanor and profile of this 2024 squad. If we are to be unburdened by this season, the path to making FSU great again starts now with the next three games. In order to be able to point to anything positive moving forward than winning two out of the last three would help. Beat ND in South Bend? We'll see. What I'm looking at is really simple:
Offensive Line: I need to see something that shows me this group has a pulse. I'm not interested in how many combinations have started a game. I'm not interested in how many young guys (third year is young?) are playing or out of position. I don't care if it takes 5 minutes for the receivers to get open, I don't care. Show us some fight. Show us some discipline. Show us some competitiveness. Show us some results. This group living up to its potential is the quickest fix possible for this team and turning this season in a different trajectory. A productive (traditional) running game (all respect to 40-yard tush pushes) would cure a multitude of ills for the entire team. I don't have to lay out what that would be but if this team has any chance this is the path. One can only hope.
Defense: Tackle. It's not a scheme thing. If tackling simply improves that would cure a multitude of ills. In order for that to happen, angles need to be right, space needs to be closed down, and ("gasp") even a collision or two may happen. There's a laundry list of things that need to happen, but you need to start somewhere, and if it's one thing that coach Bobby Bowden drilled into my head it's that the team that blocks and tackles best will win the game. So, let's start there.
Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Florida State 20
Curt Weiler
Third time is the turnover charm?: The last two weeks, I've pointed out how unlucky FSU's defense has been at forcing turnovers and said that a key to FSU snapping its losing streak would be snapping that skid with maybe a couple takeaways. It didn't work for the Miami or North Carolina games, but maybe the third time is the charm? By the time Saturday night's game begins, it will have been 49 days since FSU's defense forced a takeaway. The Seminoles' two defensive forced turnovers this season are the fewest out of 134 FBS teams nationally this season. Facing one of the better defenses in the country, the defense could maybe give the offense a chance if at last long that turnover dam breaks.
Pray to Touchdown Jesus: Nowhere do college football and religion mix together more than at Notre Dame. The Irish even have a painting that can be seen from inside their stadium known as Touchdown Jesus. I feel like the Seminoles have tried just about everything else at this point. Why not try offering up a prayer? Given what FSU's offense has looked like this season, it's hard not to feel like it would take a miracle for the Seminoles to come out with a win Saturday night.
Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Florida State 6
Jerry Kutz
Let's be honest, a Florida State victory at Notre Dame is unlikely to be found on the scoreboard unless an Irish team isn't ready to play. Even the most optimistic of Seminole fans know that before victory can be seen on the scoreboard it must be won on the field. Once again, I'm looking for very basic grass roots victories. While the Irish players will be motivated by the "Play Like a Champion" sign on their way out of their locker room, the Seminoles need to adopt a "Fight and Don't Quit" mentality while in the South Bend Coliseum. Fight and don't quit would be a step in the right direction and a "victory" for this 1-8 team.
Offensive keys: "If you can't block 'em, get run over slower," legendary offensive line coach Wayne McDuffie exhorted his linemen during practice. "Get caught up in his spokes." Good advice for this line, and something I'd consider a micro-victory on Saturday. Show some fight. Show some pride. Give your QB an extra second, a RB an extra inch, make a downfield block, leg whip somebody. It would be good to see the receivers show more physicality against a superior secondary when contesting 50-50 balls. Win a battle you haven't won in games past. Be fundamentally sound. Use two hands. Block somebody. Disregard your personal health.
Defensive keys: "Play like a TEAM today." FSU's defense has been good enough to put teams in third-and-long but not consistent enough to finish and get the hell off the field. Every time you see an FSU punt return, consider it a defensive victory. Defensive players need to keep themselves from becoming disheartened when the offense struggles. If you've ever played on a team with an offense that struggles to score, you know just how hard it is to do your job and avoid the temptation to try to do too much. Do your job. Fight for inches. Chase with leverage. Wrap up ball carriers to the ground. Play with passion and disregard for personal health. Prove to the NFL scouts in attendance you are able to play within a team concept.
Prediction: Notre Dame 42, Florida State 13
Charles Fishbein
Stop the run: Notre Dame likes to run the football with Jeremiyah Love averaging 6.34 yards per carry (564 yards, 9 TDs) on the season. Quarterback Riley Leonard (6.34 yards per carry) is a threat, as is Jadarian Price (6.44 yards per carry). They like to run and they are very good at doing so. Notre Dame has 1,734 yards on the season. This may be the best rushing attack that FSU has faced. If FSU can stop the run it would give them a chance to stay in the game.
Playing for NIL: When NFL teams are out of the playoff hunt guys have a choice. Do I quit, that shows up on film and another team will pay me. College football has become big business. Most of the players on the team with NFL aspirations have pretty much destroyed those dreams for the 2025 Draft. Their stock can't get much lower. You want to fix that. Come out and play like you actually care. Many of these guys, if they are not playing for NIL deals at FSU, they are for other programs. You show up and play like you care. And the money available goes up.
Mission Takeaway: For FSU to have any real shot at winning this game they must get turnovers. That is also their biggest problem. They have not had a turnover in a game since Cal. How is this even possible? Pretty much every team in the country will have one game where they get another team to turn the ball over. Not FSU. FSU needs to win the turnover battle. Can they also go all out on a punt.
Final Thoughts: It's Notre Dame. I don't care what your record is, you show up to play ND. FSU is going into South Bend and, if NIU can beat ND, so can FSU. My biggest concern is you now have coaches coaching for their next job, players playing for their next paycheck and fans who have given up. Is beating ND even possible? If this were any other year, I would give the Noles a fighting chance.
Prediction: Notre Dame 41, Florida State 6
Nick Carlisle
Keep the Fridge Stocked: Yeah... it's that kind of feeling heading into this one. Even if Florida State can't win that doesn't mean that you can't. So, my key to the game is to enjoy yourself as much as possible - but do it responsibly.
Keep The Game Short: If Florida State has a chance heading into this game, it comes in keeping the game as short as possible. Notre Dame will look to run the football with both Riley Leonard and its two talented backs. Florida State should try and match that as much as possible and limit possessions in the game. We've been banging this drum for a few weeks now, but Lawrance Toafili needs to be getting about 20 touches, not eight. As the score got away from FSU last week against North Carolina, you saw parts of the defense put their heads down and the effort drop. If Notre Dame continues to get possessions quickly and the score starts to get away from FSU, that'll happen even quicker in that environment. If you can find a way to limit possessions, keep the score close enough and give you a chance, that's all you need.
Get some Puck Luck: If Curt is praying to touchdown Jesus, I guess I'm praying to whatever god will grant Florida State a turnover for a change. Florida State has had no puck luck this season in terms of generating turnovers. Dropped INT's, forced fumbles that go unrecovered — you name it. With an offense that struggles to score more than 14 points, a short field or even a defensive touchdown would be a nice change of pace and go a long way towards an upset.
Prediction: Notre Dame 45, Florida State 10
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