Florida State (1-5, 1-4 ACC) will travel to Durham to take on Duke (5-1, 1-1) on Friday at 7 p.m. (ESPN2) in a game that the Seminoles enter as a three-point underdog.
The Seminoles have never lost to the Blue Devils in the 22 previous matchups. Here are the Osceola staff's keys to making it 23 in a row for Florida State over Duke.
Bob Ferrante
Bye, bye: I’m a big fan of bye weeks because it feels like coaches use it as a delineation. They call it a chance to focus on fundamentals but it’s a great time to self-evaluate. And when FSU’s performance is what it was in the first half, coaches start asking tough questions: Which younger players can help us win? Which veterans should we motivate by adjusting playing time? It’s all about player development and who is fully invested for the next six games – as well as for the 2025 season.
Smart football: The Seminoles have committed 24 penalties in the last three games. Couple that with a -6 turnover margin over the course of the fall. Sprinkle in a consistent dash of drops. The Seminoles are capable of playing smarter football, but do they have the ability to do so? I’ll buy that Duke is a good 5-1 team, but I’ll also buy that a struggling 1-5 FSU can win by reducing penalties and limiting drops — playing well around Brock Glenn — and making sure the turnover margin isn’t a negative.
Win third downs: Duke is 129th in the FBS on third downs, converting just 28.7 percent of opportunities. FSU’s defense is 118th in the nation, allowing opponents to convert with 46 percent efficiency. The Seminoles must force Duke into third-and-long and make stops.
Prediction: Florida State 20, Duke 17
Pat Burnham
First and Third: As Bob as mentioned, and Curt will in his keys, FSU and Duke really struggle on third down. They are two of the worst teams in all of college football in third-down conversions. So third-down conversion rate is something to pay attention to and will have a huge impact on this game. That makes first down on offense that much more important. I think the team who has the most success on first down, which sets up more third-and-manageable situations, has a distinct advantage in this game.
Punting Power: With both FSU and Duke having two of the worst first-down and third-down offenses in the country, average starting field possession will certainly be a key for two teams who struggle to sustain drives. What both teams have is great punters who should be considered weapons because of their ability to flip the field and pin opposing offenses deep in their own territory to start drives.
FSU's Alex Mastromanno is averaging 49.2 yards per punt, which ranks first in all of college football. Fourteen of his 34 punts have resulted in opponents starting their ensuing drive inside their own 20-yard line and he has had punts travel more than 50 yards five times this season. He has also forced nine fair catches.
Duke's Kade Reynoldson is averaging 45.2 yards per punt, which ranks 18th in all of college football. Seventeen of his 33 punts have resulted in opponents starting their ensuing drives inside their own 20-yard line and he has had punts travel more than 50 yards eight times this year. He has also forced 18 fair catches.
These guys are weapons, and they will have a huge impact on the game, especially in the area of average starting field position. Show me the team that, on average, has to move the ball the shorter distance to score and you will likely find the winner of this game.
Play with and for Pride: There are certainly some other factors in this game that will have an impact: Which staff will have their team more motivated to play? Will FSU play two quarterbacks? Can FSU win the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball? Can they win the hidden yardage battle? So forth and so on.
And winning in all those areas is great but to me this game should be about pride for Mike Norvell, his coaching staff and every single player on this team who takes the field. This game is simply about finding a way, any way, to win a football game. Be the tougher team, be the more physical team, be the team that wants it more.
For what it is worth, and I think there is some value in it, the six FBS teams FSU has played this season have a combined record of 27-10. Duke has played five FBS opponents this season who have a combined record of 17-16. Now maybe I am reading too much into this or maybe I am just too prideful to believe Florida State could ever lose to Duke. I don't think they will.
Prediction: Florida State 26, Duke 24
Jerry Kutz
Duke and SMU have stadiums with similar capacities of 35,000. Florida State travels to Durham this Friday night with the intention of keeping the stadium scoreboards from looking similar, too.
The keys for 1-5 Florida State to remain undefeated against 5-1 Duke remain very simple: Do the little things right. Block, tackle, run, throw, catch, and limit penalties better in this game than in the first six. It's really that simple but my editor wants more detail so let's elaborate.
Offensive keys to victory: Quarterback Brock Glenn showed us he can put the ball on the receiver against Clemson, so my keys for the offense are at offensive line and receiver. Duke's defensive front likes to blitz, twist and stunt to create breakdowns in pass protection schemes so a key will be how well FSU offensive line can communicate the trade offs other offensive lines have struggled with this year. FSU is starting freshman Andre' Otto at one guard and sophomore Jaylen Early at the other guard, as those two bring more agility to the task. The young guards have been working all week with veteran center Maurice Smith between them and seasoned veteran tackles Darius Washington and Jeremiah Byers on their outside. This is the game within the game. The receivers can also be a key by catching a higher percent of the passes Glenn put within their catch radius this week than they did against Clemson. FSU must finish those gash plays to force Diaz to think twice about blitzing or playing with a heavy box. Catch the ball and the box gets lighter. Oh, and getting open a little quicker would also help Glenn get the ball out before those defenders can get to him.
Defensive Key to victory: Do a better job, not a perfect job, of filling gaps. Like the offense, the Seminoles are turning to younger linebackers and safeties to do it. Veteran linebacker DJ Lundy was lost for the season prior to the Clemson game so youngsters Nickelson, Cryer, Ward and Graham, bring a bit more experience to Durham as well as Riley, an Auburn transfer. FSU made a depth chart change at safety with redshirt freshman KJ Kirkland starting next to redshirt junior Shyheim Brown.
Coach Mike Norvell hung the job opportunity sign. These players responded to earn the trust and playing time, and now find themselves in this writer's keys to victory.
Prediction: Florida State 24, Duke 21
Curt Weiler
Win third down: In what is expected to be a closely contested game Friday night in Durham, it could very well come down to the little things. Like which team does a better job on third downs. FSU has been pretty bad on both sides of the ball on third downs through six games this season, ranking 126th in third-down conversion percentage (28.92%) and 118th in third-down conversion percentage allowed (45.98%). The bad news for FSU's offense? Duke's defense ranks 11th nationally, allowing opponents to convert just 29.29% of their third downs this season. The good news for the Seminoles? Duke's offense is the only ACC team that ranks worse than FSU in third-down conversions at 28.75%. If FSU can win the third-down battle vs. Duke, it's likely to extend its undefeated streak against this longtime ACC opponent.
CATCH. THE. BALL: This one is pretty self-explanatory. In Brock Glenn's first start, the players he was throwing the ball to made some nice catches, but we still saw far too many balls hitting the ground thanks to drops of extremely catchable passes. The same has been true at times during practice over the last two weeks since the Clemson game. Glenn showed against the Tigers that he's capable of bringing a spark to FSU's offense. But if he's going to do that, he needs his players around him on offense to set him up for success. I wouldn't be surprised if a ball that is caught or dropped in a critical moment Friday night will mark the difference in the result of the game.
Prediction: Florida State 24, Duke 20
Charles Fishbein
Make it a Starless Night: Star Thomas has rushed for 528 yards and three touchdowns. FSU has to shut down Thomas and not allow him to go off on their defense. Shut him down and it makes their offense that much less potent. Star rushed for over 160 yards against rival North Carolina. FSU needs to make sure they don't make Star a star on Friday night.
Score: Sounds simple but it has been nothing but simple for FSU's offense. This week they face a Duke defense that is only giving up 17 PPG. They are the No. 23-ranked scoring defense in the country. FSU needs to find a way to generate points. They have not done a good job of even getting into field goal position to score points. If FSU can get 24-27 points in this game, I feel they can win.
Turnovers: FSU has been abysmal this year creating turnovers. For a team that has a statement "Mission takeaway" at practice, FSU has not had this translate over to games. FSU has to win the turnover battle. They can't continue to allow teams to not make mistakes and cost them. If FSU can finally win the turnover battle, they could get their second win of the season. Youth be served: FSU has gone to a youth movement. I expect players like Micahi Danzy and Kam Davis to get some carries this week. I would expect FSU to add more of Amaree Williams and Landen Thomas to the game plan. If FSU is going to win and have success on the football field it is going to come from their younger players.
This year's version of FSU football team is not good. They don't get turnovers, they don't score, they are penalized a lot. Outside of a really good punter and kicker, FSU has been a major disappointment this season. I have never seen Duke beat FSU while I am alive. FSU is 22-0 against the Dukies. I hate to say it but another streak is about to be broken.
Prediction: Duke 31, Florida State 20
Nick Carlisle
Keep Brock Clean (As Best You Can): One of the main talking points all week has been the Duke defense and how efficient they are getting into the back field. The Blue Devils are No. 24 in total defense, have the second most TFLs in the country with 58 and are 18th in the country in sacks. Florida State's dysfunction on offense has a lot to do with some poor offensive line play — an issue that has only gotten worse with injuries. Duke will get to Brock — that is a given. But if Florida State can keep him off the ground at a decent enough level, that will go a long way to getting enough points in what could be a defensive game.
Create a Turnover: I think this will end up being a battle of the defenses and a defensive turnover or defensive touchdown could be the deciding factor in this game. Duke is No. 98 in total offense and, well, I don't know that I want to look at Florida State's numbers if I'm being honest. Either way, creating a turnover is not something that Florida State has been particularly good at this season. Granted some of it has been luck and some forced fumbles have gone unrecovered. Nevertheless, if Florida State can give Brock (or Luke Kromenhoek) a short field, that will be a large help in getting Florida State it's second win of the season.
Prediction: Florida State 16, Duke 14 (All hail the streak)
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