The Osceola's keys to an FSU win over SMU, game predictions

Florida State (1-3, 1-2 ACC) heads to SMU (3-1) to play in its first true road game of the 2024 season. The Seminoles are looking for their second win in a row. The Mustangs are playing in and hosting their first game as a member of the ACC.

SMU enters the game as a 6-point favorite. It is the first time this season that Florida State has entered a game as an underdog.

The Osceola's staff offers their keys to the Seminoles securing a victory against the Mustangs.

Bob Ferrante

Avoid a shootout at all costs: FSU's defense is capable of keeping an opponent's scoring to the teens. While there are concerns about a mobile quarterback and SMU's prolific offense, can the Seminoles put together quality drives and enough of them to score 20-24 points? And even that's living on the edge, but perhaps it's the reality of FSU in 2024. The Seminoles need to establish a consistent run game with Lawrance Toafili and Kam Davis. This game can't sit on the shoulders of the passing attack. FSU really has just four touchdown drives in the last 16 quarters. Even a few drives that result in realistic attempts for Ryan Fitzgerald and yield points will help, although this feels like a game where the Seminoles will need to stack touchdowns.

The real deal or fool's gold?: Which FSU run defense shows up, the one that allowed 263 yards to Boston College or just 172 yards combined in the last two games? If SMU's offensive line is indeed a major weakness, FSU should be able to win enough first and second downs to force Kevin Jennings, a mobile quarterback, to stay in the pocket and be a passer. Jennings will no doubt get his yards and converting third downs will frustrate the Seminoles but those must be minimized. This defensive front is starting to play like we thought, although they've feasted on weaker offensive lines. Can they continue to feast?

Prediction: Florida State 20, SMU 17

Jerry Kutz

Californication: I see SMU very much in the mold of the first four teams Florida State has played. The Cal game proved you can win when you win two of the three segments of a football game. Continued high level production from the specialists, along with improved defensive effort especially along the defensive front, were the difference between defeat in the first three games and victory against Cal. One turnover in the red zone kept the game closer than it should have been but limiting turnovers allowed the defense and kicking game to preserve the win. While we all wish for an offense that can score 24 or more points, an offensive key to this game will be to do no harm.

Prediction: Florida State 21, SMU 20

Pat Burnham:

Groundhog Day: I agree with Jerry, I think SMU is very similar to Memphis and Cal. And, like Jerry, I don't have a lot of confidence that the Seminoles will see much improvement on the offensive side of the ball. That being said, this is a winnable ball game if they follow the same recipe FSU used against Cal: great run defense, great red zone defense, great special teams, commit to running game and get just enough offense to complement the two other phases of the game.

Extra possessions: The FSU defense should go into this game with some confidence. With the Seminoles struggling on offense, the defense needs to create a couple of extra possessions by creating some turnovers and giving the offense some short-field opportunities that at the very least can be converted into field goals. If the Seminoles can create three turnovers, I like their chances.

Having watched SMU play twice, FSU should have a significant advantage when it comes to the Seminoles' defensive line matching up against SMU's offensive line. They were dominated physically by Nevada's and BYU's defensive lines. No reason to think an FSU defensive line can't do the same.

The X-factor is that the Mustangs have made a change at QB and the new starter, Kevin Jennings, is the team's second leading rusher. Can FSU slow him down on the ground? If they slow down the SMU run game, I am not sure SMU's OL can slow down FSU's pass rush. Alex Mastromanno and Ryan Fitzgerald have given the Seminoles the best punting/kicking duo in college football so far this season. That should continue.

SMU might prove me wrong, maybe they found something against TCU last week. But remember 21 of SMU's 66 points were scored by the defense or special teams in that game. My opinion of SMU is that they are a bad 3-1 football team. None of the three teams they have beaten are very good. Nevada has one win over a bad Troy team. I wasn't aware Houston Christian had a football team until the played SMU, and TCU has one of the worst rushing defenses in all of college football.

I do have concerns about FSU playing on the road. But I think this has the chance to be another very low scoring game. Going to go out on a limb and it's not a strong one, so we will see how it holds up. Call me a dreamer, the defense and special teams come through for the second week in a row and FSU's offense (with or without an appearance from Brock Glenn) makes just enough plays to squeak out a win.

Prediction: Florida State 20, SMU 18

Mark Salva

SMU in Dallas is next and 5 weeks ago everyone had this penciled in as a W. As far as the state of the team and the season, at this point nothing can be taken for granted, not even an FSU loss (gotcha). SMU is coming off a big win vs TCU where they played great complimentary football and are anticipating their first home game as a member of the ACC. They smell blood in the water as FSU limps to Ford Field and it looks dire for the 'Noles. 'Nole faithful are expecting the worst (at least everyone I know) and with big games tracking in the coming months, there are no wobbles in the future for the 'Noles. They have to meet the challenge head-on. So here are my keys for victory over the Ponies.

Control the edges: FSU fans will recognize Rhett Lashlee's offense since he was the OC for Auburn in 2013 and in the 2013 National Championship game. At QB instead of Nick Marshall he has Kevin Jennings, instead of Trey Mason he has Brashard Smith. It looks like they are trying to create the same vibe at SMU, and you can see the similarities. Power running game out of the spread with designed QB runs and opportunistic passing off of play action. In order to contain SMU and make them one dimensional you have to keep them behind the chains and force them into things they don't want to do. Best way to do that is control the edges of the defense. They like to attack the edges with QB zone reads, power/counter/gap schemes, and just formationally try to out leverage the defense w/ TE wings or tight sets. The chunk plays will come from QB runs, RB bouncing it outside, or Play-Action pass. Our edge defenders whether it be Payton, Jones Jr, Lolohea, Nicholson, Lundy, or Shyheim and KJ...whomever has the responsibility of setting the edge, not losing contain or spilling, and run read to pass read transitions ...has to be on point.

Putting it on the OL: Defense travels, and so should a strong Offensive Line. I'm putting it on them this week. The SMU front seven are not world beaters. The strength of this defense are the 2nd level defenders who seem to all be able to run, hit, and tackle well. They attack from all different angles and can be extremely disruptive. The OL need to take ownership of this offense if they have any chance. SMU will use a lot of movement like slants, twists, and LB cross blitzes with their front seven to try and confuse blocking schemes, create chaos, and get free runners to the QB or Ball carrier. The ability of the OL to be disciplined and physical in the running game and stifling the blitz, plus just protecting the QB and giving him a clean pocket will help this offense reach its potential. The OL needs to be the solution, not the problem. I think we do it.

Prediction: Florida State 30, SMU 23

Curt Weiler

Make Jennings beat you with his arm: After a few weeks of less-mobile quarterbacks, FSU again takes on a quarterback very capable of beating the defense with his legs Saturday in SMU starter Kevin Jennings. While Jennings won the QB battle, he hasn't thrown for more than 226 yards in a game since SMU's Week 0 season opener vs. Nevada. While the Mustangs put up 66 points last week in their win over TCU, Jennings threw for just 137 yards and two touchdowns because SMU ran for 238 yards, three touchdowns and averaged 5.67 yards per rush against the Horned Frogs. If SMU is able to have similar success on the ground vs. FSU, it could be a long night for the Seminoles. FSU's run defense has been much better the last few weeks, allowing less than three yards per carry against both Memphis and Cal after Georgia Tech and Boston College both racked up over five yards a run against FSU. Making Jennings beat you with his arm would probably go a long way towards paving a path to victory for FSU.

Take care of the ball: Turnovers haven't been a huge issue for FSU's offense this season. The Seminoles have turned it over just five times in their first four games, with their offensive issues coming in other areas. However, SMU's defense may test FSU's ball security more than any other team it has faced so far this season. The Mustangs have forced 11 turnovers in four games this season (tied with Cal for third-most nationally), are coming off a game last week where they forced five turnovers vs. TCU and have forced three or more turnovers in each of their last three games. While there is an inherent luck aspect to turnovers, I am of the belief that there is more to it than that and that some teams make more of those opportunities that are presented than others. If FSU also falls into that turnover trap, that could turn what is supposed to be a fairly competitive game into a lopsided loss. Bonus key would be if FSU's defense can find some takeaways of its own. FSU's defense has forced just two turnovers (both interceptions) through four games this season while SMU has turned it over six times (four fumbles lost, two interceptions).

Prediction: SMU 28, Florida State 21

Charles Fishbein

Limited possession: FSU can't get into a shootout. They have barely scored in the first four games and the last thing the Seminoles need to do is try and go score for score with SMU, who just scored over 60 points in their last game. The Mustangs can light up the scoreboard while FSU has struggled to move the ball down the field.

Run the ball: The Seminoles will win if they can run the ball. SMU has kept opponents from having success running the ball, giving up only 95 yards per game on the ground. When Norvell's teams run the ball they win. FSU will rely on Kam Davis and Lawrance Toafili to run the ball as Alabama transfer Roydell Williams is out.

Turn it over: FSU can make life much easier for themselves if they can get SMU to turn the ball over. Turnovers can get a struggling offense to start clicking.

FSU's strength is the defensive line. SMU has struggled on the offensive line. If the Seminoles can win up front they will have a shot at the upset. This is one of the biggest games SMU will have at home this year playing in the ACC. They will be pumped up and so will the home crowd. Unless FSU finds an offense on the way to Dallas this game won't be pretty. FSU has to muck it up and hope SMU falls flat on their face. I feel FSU can win — but will they?

Prediction: SMU 34, Florida State 24

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