No. 4 FSU will face off against Clemson at noon on Saturday in Death Valley in what, for now, is the biggest game of the ACC season. The Seminoles are a two-point favorite on the road and looking for their first win against Clemson since 2014. Florida State has a chance to let everyone know that the tide is turning in the ACC with a win and take a two-game lead over Clemson in the conference standings.
The Osceola staff offers their keys to an FSU win on Saturday afternoon.
Osceola Publisher Jerry Kutz
My two keys are poise, poise on offense and defense.
I remember former FSU offensive coordinator Mark Richt telling his quarterbacks, "Don't turn a bad play into a disaster. Throw it away and if necessary we will punt it."
FSU is a veteran team and poise under pressure should come easy to them but it did not in Boston when the game suddenly turned on one play — a missed block led to a fumble and a scoop and score — and gave life to a team that was looking at being routed. Instead, a squib kick was muffed and things stacked up.
It was surprising, disconcerting, because we thought FSU had outgrown it.
Remember 2021, FSU silenced the Death Valley crowd with 3:34 remaining when Jermaine Johnson had a strip sack, scoop and score to put FSU up by three. But Johnson was flagged for celebrating after he tossed the ball in the air. A play later, Kevin Knowles was flagged for interference, then a play later DJ Lundy flagged for unnecessary roughness and the crowd was back into it. The Tigers earned seven yards of offense and the zebras tacked on 45 more and and poise was nowhere to be found.
I thought Mike Norvell should have called a timeout to help settle his defense but he didn't and, on the next play, Will Shipley ran right up the middle for a 21-yard touchdown and the victory.
There will be adversity at some point and FSU must respond with appropriate emotion.
Poise on offense: Clemson has the better defense and FSU the better offense. FSU's offense has looked rattled at times and Clemson is good enough to rattle them. FSU must have the right response as it will need to score 31 to win.
Poise on defense: FSU's front needs to win the LOS if it is to help the back end of FSU's defense enough to hold Clemson to 28 or fewer points. Clemson will try to pound it and FSU's linebackers must use poised judgement on supporting the run as the Tigers like to throw quick play action passes underneath if FSU's LBs are too quick to get sucked into run support. Clemson's least experienced players are at tackle and quarterback so you'd expect Jared Verse and Patrick Payton to have productive days, but quick throws could frustrate Verse and Payton, who must stay on the attack but play within their assignments.
Prediction: FSU 31, Clemson 28
Osceola Football Analyst Mark Salva
Establish the run early: FSU has a lot of toys to play with on offense. Coach Norvell has accumulated an incredible amount of talent on offense, and it is very tempting to dial up big plays because the potential is there considering the playmaking ability at WR, TE, and RB. But in the first three games it feels a lot like FSU takes those shots on early downs and a lot of those shots weren't pulled off for whatever reason and then we are behind the chains. On the road, I think establishing the running game early is a key and let those opportunities for big chunk plays emerge from the ability to establish the running game. Sound familiar? It seems that was the plan at the end of 2022 when we found the great run of form. Get the OL and RB's involved early, rip off first downs and the rest of the offense can open up around that. Commitment to run early in the game is a key for me.
Fix the back end on defense: The most concerning thing for me is the blown coverages. Whenever a team shifts, motions and presents a lot of eye candy the coverage communication and adjustments can be confused. The result has been uncovered receivers for big plays. It happened in the first play vs LSU, at least two times vs USM and multiple times vs BC. It's a pattern that goes back to last year (Ricky Pearsall, anyone?). This is something that I believe is in the process. I have no doubt that Adam Fuller has a sound plan to adjust to all these things scheme-wise but, for whatever reason, FSU has consistently busted. The resulting big plays are killers. Against good teams in close games, this will get you beat. If I see it, I'm sure our opponents do too and they will see if they can take advantage of this trend. I hope we're prepared. I'll believe it when I see it.
Prediction: Clemson 35, FSU 31
Osceola Managing Editor Bob Ferrante
Win the mismatches: We know what Will Shipley will do. The versatile Clemson running back has picked up 100+ yards in back-to-back games against FSU and is also a very good pass-catcher. FSU has its mismatch options, too. From Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman to Jaheim Bell, Markeston Douglas and Kyle Morlock, FSU has tough 1-on-1 matchups. Something tells me Keon Coleman won't get shut down for a second straight week. But there's also comfort in the quantity of FSU's mismatch options and the opportunities that will be there for them to make plays.
Keep calm, withstand the storm: Clemson undoubtedly would have wanted a 7 p.m. or 8 p.m. kickoff to bring the full Death Valley feel of an energized fan base. Still, Clemson and the fans will be fired up. And FSU will have to fight the emotions. Remember the LSU game? The Seminoles were too amped up, putting too much pressure on their shoulders to make a play or perform well in the first half. And now after a nail-biting win at BC, FSU will have to combat its feelings of needing to atone. In a game and setting that will be emotional, a level-headed FSU team will need to withstand the punches (in Norvell-speak: adversity) and persevere.
Prediction: FSU 31, Clemson 24
Osceola Senior Writer Curt Weiler
Don't make it easy for Clemson's offense: Clemson's offense hasn't found its full stride yet this season. Even if it had a bit more success against Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic, there were still lapses and I'd imagine Clemson fans want to see it against a team with more talent before they really start to believe the improvement is real. Saturday's game against FSU provides exactly that opportunity. Not to totally discredit what Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos did, but last week's game was much more about what the Seminoles' defense did than what BC's offense did. There were far too many blown coverages, improper gaps in the run game and missed tackles and all of those played a big role in the Seminoles nearly suffering a devastating loss. It's fair to wonder if FSU started to look ahead to this week's game, especially once it got up 31-10. However, that defensive performance was startling enough that you need to see a difference this week before dismissing it as more of a fluke. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik has struggled under pressure. Clemson's wide receiver/tight end talent this year is not nearly as good as FSU's. The most obvious way FSU loses this game is if the FSU defense makes the same mistakes again and doesn't make Clemson earn its points the hard way.
Take advantage of your offensive opportunities: I'm not convinced that this Clemson defense is in the realm of those incredible defenses that helped the Tigers win a pair of national titles in the last seven years. But the defense is undeniably the strength of this team that FSU will be going up against Saturday in Death Valley. It'll be interesting to see how many chunk plays Mike Norvell and Alex Atkins will be able to scheme open against this defense. I would bet there won't be a ton of wide-open receivers and it will come down to the various playmakers doing just that. Making plays. We saw Keon Coleman's remarkable ability catching contested passes vs. LSU, but that has not been evident the last few weeks. This will be quite a time for that to show up once again. FSU also could use big games from the likes of Johnny Wilson, Jaheim Bell, maybe even a wild card from FSU's deep receiver room thrown in there. Opportunities for big plays may be somewhat sparse against this Clemson defense. So when the opportunities present themselves, the FSU offense must make the most of them.
Prediction: FSU 31, Clemson 21
Osceola Recruiting Analyst Charles Fishbein
Pressure Klubnik: When he has a clean pocket the Clemson signal caller looks good. When you get pressure in his face, the Clemson QB looks lost. FSU needs to put constant pressure on Klubnik and make him uncomfortable. Stop or slow down Clemson run game. Shipley and Mafah are two of the best backs in the nation. As they got so does the Clemson offense.
Win the line of scrimmage: If FSU slows down Clemson's run game, it will be more likely they leave Death Valley with a win. You can say this every game, but this holds true even more in this game. Clemson and FSU offensive lines have been inconsistent this year. The team who wins the line of scrimmage wins the game.
Prediction: FSU 38, Clemson 27
Osceola Football Analyst Pat Burnham
Verse needs another hit single: Jared Verse needs to have the best game of his career and show that he is one of the best college football players in the country. Clemson's offensive tackles have struggled in pass protection, especially right tackle Blake Miller, who is among the leaders in college football in allowing pressures. The Tigers' left tackles are young and inexperienced with just a combined three career starts. FSU defensive coordinator Adam Fuller and Verse need to take advantage of these two facts. And FSU will need Patrick Payton to play much, much better than he did last week against Boston College. If these two guys are the stars of the defense for FSU something good is happening for the Seminoles.
Take a punch: A lot is being made of the fact that this is a noon kickoff and how that is a decided advantage for FSU. I am not sure how much of that I am buying. The Tigers are a wounded animal and will be fighting to be relevant in the battle to reach the ACC Championship game and those chances will go down considerably if they lose their second straight conference game to start 2023. Not sure I thought I would be writing that when the season began. Dabo will have his team at a fever pitch coming out of the locker room. FSU must match the early adrenaline rush the Tigers will no doubt come down the hill with and then, when the emotion subsides, be the more physical and better football team.
Prediction: FSU 31, Clemson 30
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