It doesn’t matter what level of sports you’re playing or coaching or watching, one universal truth holds true: Your team's warts almost always will be exposed in the postseason.
If you’re a baseball team with a poor third baseman, you can rest assured that the ball will find him in a crucial situation in the playoffs.
If you’re a football team that can sling it through the air all day but struggle to run it in short yardage, bank on seeing a bunch of third-and-short situations when the season’s on the line.
If your team has a major flaw -- and most teams do -- you might be able to mask it for periods of time during the regular season. But good coaches, who are honest with themselves, always know that there is danger lurking below the surface. It’s the fear that keeps them up at night and drives them to get back to work early in the morning.
So, it didn’t surprise me that Florida State’s shortcomings were on full display during the second round of the NCAA Tournament in Orlando. This was a team that didn’t shoot well from the perimeter all season and really struggled down the stretch -- at times, it appeared they didn’t have one player on the court who felt confident shooting the ball from beyond 12 feet. Give credit to Xavier for recognizing that and packing in their zone defense to force the Seminoles to beat them from the perimeter.
But FSU’s bigger deficiencies, in my opinion, were also on display in that embarrassing loss -- although they might not be as easily detected on the surface.
To put it bluntly, this was not a very tough basketball team -- mentally or physically. That’s not to say there weren’t players on the team who have those qualities individually. But collectively, it just wasn’t there.
I think the lack of mental toughness was evident in the disparity between their level of play at home on the road. When they were comfortable and felt good about themselves, they could dominate any and all comers. But when they struggled and found themselves in substantial holes -- particularly away from their home court and their home crowd -- they rarely could dig themselves out.
As I said, I do believe there are some individual players who have that type of makeup. Unfortunately for this year’s team, some of those guys were among the youngest on the roster and weren’t ready from a development standpoint to emerge as leaders. But their time will come.
The bigger concern to me, as it relates to the future of the program under Leonard Hamilton, is that this was one more year removed from the type of nasty, physical defense that was the hallmark of his teams during his first 25 years as a head coach. This group was better defensively than the last three or four years -- when the Seminoles often were completely lackluster at that end of the court -- but it still wasn’t anywhere close to where it needs to be, or where it was during Hamilton's best run at FSU.
Opponents this season shot 41.6 percent from the field and 34.9 percent from 3-point range; they averaged 72.1 points per game. Consider that in 2010-11, the year FSU reached the Sweet 16 and came agonizingly close to making the Elite Eight, they held opponents to 36.3 percent shooting from the field, 30.6 percent from 3-point range and 62.0 points per game. The numbers were very similar the next year, when the Seminoles shocked the ACC by winning the conference tournament.
But since then, the D in Hamilton’s “Junkyard D” has largely been disappointing.
In ACC games this year, opponents shot 43.7 percent from the field against FSU and 38.0 percent from 3-point range. The only teams that defended the 3-point line worse were Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Virginia Tech and N.C. State. Four of those six teams were the worst four teams in the conference, and the Hokies were the only one of the group to make the NCAA Tournament. (They were bounced in the first round.)
It would be hard to complain about the quality of players Hamilton has signed the past two years. With the help of assistant coaches Charlton Young, Dennis Gates and Stan Jones, Hamilton has signed some incredible talent -- led by Jonathan Isaac, Dwayne Bacon, Malik Beasley, Terance Mann and Trent Forrest. The group they have coming in for next season is highly ranked by recruiting analysts as well.
But unless they start playing defense the way Hamilton’s teams did earlier in his tenure at Florida State –- and the way his teams did relentlessly at Miami -- I have a hard time believing they’ll accomplish much more than they did this year.
Signing highly rated players, who are known for their athletic ability and offensive skills, can make for some fun teams and it will fill highlight reels. But in a league with programs like North Carolina, Notre Dame, Duke, Louisville and Syracuse, the recipe for success at Florida State absolutely has to feature toughness and defense as its two main ingredients.
Look at the teams that knocked out the ACC’s top teams in this year’s tournament. I would argue that Xavier was the more physical team than Florida State, South Carolina certainly used its defensive tenacity to upset Duke, and West Virginia did the same to Notre Dame.
I’m not suggesting that Hamilton should go back to the days of winning games in the 50s and 60s. But they’ve got to find a way to infuse the program with the type of toughness -- physical and mental -- that can carry you through those tough times when your shot isn’t falling. The kind that propels you through adversity on the road.
The good news, as I said earlier, is that younger group -- led by Forrest, C.J. Walker and junior college transfer Braian Angola-Rodas -- seems to have that makeup. It’s why that “Boom Squad” second unit often performed so well; they brought tenacious defensive pressure and a degree of toughness. And I think some of the players FSU is bringing in with this next recruiting class show that type of makeup as well.
We don’t know yet what the Seminoles’ top three scorers are going to decide about their futures -- my best guesses are that Jonathan Isaac will go to the NBA and Xavier Rathan-Mayes will play professionally overseas. It wouldn’t surprise me if Bacon turned pro or if he returned; I think it’s a toss-up.
Whoever is on the roster in 2017-18, though, Hamilton and his staff absolutely have to put a tougher group out on the court.
While much of the talk following FSU’s loss to Xavier focused on Hamilton’s status with the program, I don’t see anything changing there in the immediate future. He has two years left on the contract that FSU announced last year -- but apparently still hasn’t signed -- and I can assure you he has no interest in retiring.
So, unless he were to leave on his own for another job, Hamilton will be Florida State’s head coach for at least another season or two. No matter how frustrated fans or even the administration might have been about the Xavier loss, no school is pushing out a head coach who just won 26 games.
All told, this was a very good season for Florida State basketball, but one that ended in ugly fashion when the warts were exposed. That hideous final game doesn’t diminish what that team accomplished during the regular season. Nor do all those regular-season wins excuse the debacle that occurred on Saturday. At times like this, you have to look at the big picture.
While some will say that collapse is an indictment of Hamilton’s coaching ability and a sure sign that he will never be able to elevate the Seminoles to the highest levels, I’m not ready to go there. I think the type of talent he and his staff are bringing in nowadays can be a game-changer for this program -- we saw signs of that this past season.
But they’re not going to do it on skill and scoring ability alone. They’ll never have enough of either to consistently defeat college basketball’s blue bloods.
Ironically, the key to Florida State’s success will be the combination of this new breed of talent along with Hamilton’s old-school toughness. Unless he finds that perfect blend, he’ll never take this program where he wants it to go.
Contact managing editor Ira Schoffel at ira@warchant.com. Follow @IraSchoffel on Twitter.
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