Schoffel: Why FSU might be more coveted than fans, media believe
No one knows exactly what criteria conference leaders use when determining which universities to add through expansion and realignment.
Ultimately, we have to assume it comes down to revenue: Which school or schools will generate the greatest amount of additional revenue for the existing member schools?
But how are those revenue projections determined? Is it based on recent success on the field? Is it the size of the alumni base? Is it TV ratings? All of the above?
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With that question in mind, veteran college sportswriter Pat Forde of Sports Illustrated put together a chart of what he believes are the greatest factors in determining a college athletics department's overall value. Then he took the next step and ranked the schools in the Power Five conferences -- all 69 of them -- to identify the ones that would be most desirable if the leagues scrapped their current makeup and started over.
The categories Forde used were football success, academic ranking, all-sports success, football attendance and TV viewership. And most of the categories were based on either an average of the past five years, or in the case of academics and all-sports ranking, just last year.
Now, before we go any further, I would argue that Forde left out one area that might not be as significant as those first five, but it's certainly worth considering: Recruiting territory. We all know that recruiting is the lifeblood of every program, and it is desirable to have a school in your conference from a fertile area of talent. For that reason, I would give a slight bump to schools in Florida, Georgia, Texas and California.
But even without that bump, Florida State fans should feel very good about how the Seminoles fared on Forde's list.
Of the 69 schools, FSU checked in at No. 19 overall and No. 2 in the ACC behind Clemson. The top five schools were Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Texas and Georgia. The rival Florida Gators came in at No. 6, while Miami was No. 25.
Based on these informal results, Forde suggested that Clemson and Florida State should be the next two schools invited to the Southeastern Conference whenever that time comes.
While that notion might bring comfort to some Seminole fans, who have worried that their school could get left out of the long-rumored move to two super-conferences, I think a closer look shows that FSU could actually surge higher on this list in short order.
Consider that Florida State ranks in the top 20 overall despite being below-average in football for most of these past five years. The Seminoles are ranked 56th out of 69 schools in this category, and I would argue it is the easiest of the five categories to improve a school's standing in quickly.
The all-sports ranking, on the other hand, would be difficult to change fast because it is a tally of a school's top 19 sports, as calculated for the Directors' Cup standings; not just one sport. And Florida State ranks No. 14 in that category, as compared to No. 58 for Clemson and No. 48 for Miami.
Same goes for academics, where it often takes schools years and years -- and major financial resources -- to improve their ranking in the U.S. News & World Report. Well, Florida State has already put in the work there. The Seminoles rank tied for No. 22 in that category, compared to No. 33 for Clemson. UM also is tied at No. 22.
When it comes to the other two categories -- attendance and television viewership -- I would argue that while those two are largely within a school's control, they also are inherently skewed toward the oldest, largest schools with the biggest alumni bases. That's just common sense.
But I also think it's worth noting that Clemson out-performed Florida State in both areas -- attendance and TV numbers -- at a time when the Tigers were enjoying their most successful football run in school history and the Seminoles were trying to fight their way out of the abyss. FSU was ranked No. 21 in both categories, while Clemson was No. 7 in one and 14th in the other.
Now, I don't know if Florida State will ever again average better home attendance than Clemson, especially if Doak Campbell Stadium is downsized as expected to accommodate more luxury seating, But the Seminoles certainly have in the past -- and could again -- put up even better television ratings if the product improves on the field.
And as we covered earlier, the 'Noles already are in better position in terms of both all-sports success and academics.
So even if FSU doesn't turn things around quickly in football, Forde's list indicates the Seminoles should still be considered highly valuable on the open market. And if Mike Norvell and company do come through with greater success on the field in the next couple of years, FSU might be in higher demand than anyone might have predicted.
Contact managing editor Ira Schoffel at ira@warchant.com and follow @IraSchoffel on Twitter.
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