Florida State (1-7, 1-6) heads into its game vs. North Carolina (4-4, 1-3) as a 2-point underdog and in search of their first win since Sept. 21 against Cal. The Seminoles host the Tar Heels on Military Appreciation Day at 3:30 p.m. (ACC Network).
Here is a look at what the Osceola staff thinks are key for the Seminoles to walk off the field with a win in their last conference game of the season.
Bob Ferrante
Limit the run: Omarion Hampton will undoubtedly frustrate, converting third downs and extending drives. He will likely get to 100 yards for a seventh straight game. It's what UNC does. But can FSU shift from its base 4-2-5 to a three-linebacker alignment, walk a safety up and commit to minimizing the damage that the 220-pound Hampton creates? I'm not sold FSU will magically become a very good rush defense (currently 106th in the FBS at 179.25 yards per game). And it's likely the third-down issues will persist. But the Seminoles need to stop some drives because you can't get in a shootout with UNC, which scored 38, 45 and 41 in its last three wins.
Collective confidence: There are problems all over the offense, but let’s start with confidence. Whether due to drops, blocking or errant snaps, pressure or off-target throws, it’s tough to build drives and score points. If FSU’s first few drives go according to script, ending in at least a field goal, it will mean the team has reduced its mistakes (including pre-snap penalties). The offense has confidence issues and the best fix is sustaining success and finishing drives with touchdowns or field goals. Points make everyone on offense feel good, and that they've done their job collectively. The Seminoles need some feel good.
Prediction: UNC 27, Florida State 24
Roster retention, recruiting are focal points for FSU's offseason
Pat Burnham
Gap Control: 68 percent of UNC RB Omarion Hampton's carries this season have been designed to or hit either the A- or B-gap to either side of the center and 76 percent of his 1,006 yards rushing have come on those inside runs. The recipe for success for the FSU defense is simple: Stop the inside running game and force the Tar Heels to have to throw the ball, which they don't do very well, to win the ballgame. I don't think UNC's inexperienced offensive line can handle FSU's defensive line in pass rush situations.
Less reading required: In the early stages of Jordan Travis' career at FSU, Mike Norvell would get Travis out of the pocket on boot and roll-out action, which allowed him to have to read just half the field. There are two reasons Norvell should do this against the Tar Heels. One, Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek have been running for their lives just about every time the Seminoles drop back to pass the ball. They aren't given enough time to work through their progressions when they have to read the whole field. Get them out of the pocket, they are both mobile and let them read half the field. If it is not there they can tuck and run or throw it away. It will also help tire the UNC defensive front out. Two, UNC struggles against teams that can throw the ball downfield. Only 14 teams have given up more passing plays of over 20 yards this season. Use Glenn's and Kromenhoek's athleticism to FSU's advantage and give them less to think about.
UNC was in the midst of a four-game losing streak before beating Virginia last week. During that stretch they looked as bad as any team in college football this season. Against James Madison they gave up 70 points and looked disinterested in playing. They also struggled with Charlotte, which isn't a very good football team, early in that game. They gave up a 20-point halftime lead to lose to Duke as well. Now, they did look good last week against UVA and in their season-opening win against Minnesota, but in between, not so much. When you look at common opponents, UNC lost to Duke by one and to Georgia Tech by seven. Two opponents that FSU found themselves in tight contests.
So, I think this game will be close, but I just don't think FSU's quarterbacks will get enough help from the other 10 guys on the field with them. Mack Brown finally beats FSU in what may be his last time coaching the Tar Heels in Doak Campbell Stadium.
Prediction: UNC 23, Florida State 22
Curt Weiler
Stop the run: FSU had a real problem stopping the run a week ago at Miami. The Hurricanes seemed content to rely on their run game with the belief it could win them the game and that was proven correct when they racked up 230 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in a runaway win. However, it's fair to attribute at least some of Miami's run success to the respect FSU had to pay to Cam Ward's ability as a quarterback. You could make the same case for Clemson, which ran for 265 yards vs. FSU, and its quarterback Cade Klubnik. Outside of those games against the best teams on FSU's schedule, though, FSU has done a pretty good job stopping the run of late. Memphis, Cal, SMU and Duke all failed to rush for more than 4.0 yards per carry against the Seminoles. Anchored by running back Omarion Hampton, who already has 1,006 yards and nine touchdown rushes in eight games this season, the Tar Heels certainly have a formidable run game. The passing game hasn't been nearly as prolific, however, with UNC starting QB Jacoby Criswell ranking 10th out of 16 in yards per pass attempt (7.6) so far this season with 10 touchdown passes in seven games. This game vs. UNC will be a pretty good test of the true status of FSU's run defense against a team that will certainly look to rely on the ground game for much of its offensive production.
Break the takeaway drought: By the time Saturday's game begins, it will have been 42 days since the FSU defense created a takeaway. While FSU recovered a muffed punt vs. SMU, it hasn't had a defensive takeaway since the Cal game six weeks ago on Sept. 21. Three forced turnovers is the fewest by any P4 team this season and tied with New Mexico State for the fewest in FBS. There's been some bad luck to that. FSU has forced quite a few defensive fumbles (including another one Saturday vs. Miami) and recovered none of them. It has 25 pass breakups this season and just two interceptions. In what is expected to be another close game Saturday at Doak, a key takeaway (or even two if that is allowed) could swing the tide and may even start an overdue takeaway avalanche over the final few games.
Prediction: UNC 24, Florida State 17
After acclimation from FCS, Jacob Rizy showing what he can offer to FSU
Jerry Kutz
Which North Carolina team does FSU face? UNC's scoring output has been all over the map, scoring as many as 50 in a loss to James Madison and 34 or more in five of eight games, which is far more than Florida State which hasn't scored more than 21 this year. UNC's defense is equally unpredictable for head coach Mack Brown, giving up 70 to James Madison and holding Virginia to 14 and Minnesota to 17.
North Carolina should worry you less than Florida State does. Opponent analysis is predictive when your team is playing up to par but when it is struggling, as Florida State has been, my attention remains on the Seminoles execution. And for that reason, my keys for a Florida State victory remain this one: Don't beat yourself, which is apparently harder to do than you'd think. Block, tackle, throw catch, limit dumb penalties and turnovers. Period. We're looking for the meat and potatoes, not the souffles. See a fumble, fall on the fumble.
Two ways to outscore North Carolina, one is to hold them to 20 or fewer points, which Minnesota (19) and Duke (20) both did, or find a way to score more points than ever before this year. Fortunately, Carolina has given up more big plays in the passing game than has been good for their health, so FSU should get some deep shots. A key to victory will be to give 11 or 14 time to get the ball out and for the targets to catch their share of thpse 50-50 balls. They may not catch all of them but give them enough opportunities to catch their share.
North Carolina has had success running the ball up the middle, kinda like Miami gashed the FSU defense several times with last week. A key this week will be to get those assignments fixed and reduce the presnap penalties.
Football is a game of will for the willing: This is a game FSU can win if the players and the home crowd want it. Forget the past. Punch the Powder Blue in the chops and go take what's yours. Make UNC quit. Get off blocks. Chase the ball. Wrap up. Win the 50/50 passes.
FSU 24, UNC 20 if the Seminoles can keep from beating themselves
Charles Fishbein
Tell the team they are playing North Carolina and Mack Brown: If there is one team that has been the kryptonite to Mack Brown and UNC it is FSU. The Tar Heels have been all over the place with the results on the field. This is a team that gave up 70 against James Madison and defeated a decent UVA team last week. While FSU has been consistently bad all season, North Carolina has been inconsistent all year. Hopefully for FSU the bad version of UNC comes out this week. Since Brown struggles to beat FSU the curse of FSU is on.
Don't be allergic to turnovers: I would have to look it up, but I don't think FSU has won the turnover battle one time this season. FSU needs turnovers. Against James Madison, UNC turned the ball over five times. FSU needs to finally win the turnover battle.
Two quarterbacks means you have none: FSU needs to stick to either Glenn or Kromenhoek and ride them the entire game. FSU is 1-7 and, to be honest, there is no time for hard feelings. Play the guy you feel gives you the best chance to win this game.
I know I am going to shock many people, but I am picking the Seminoles. I believe in trends and, in this series against Mack Brown, FSU has always come up big. FSU is playing at home, there is zero pressure on them, and I actually feel they will play a decent game. The medications have yet to kick in. I am picking FSU in the upset. Vegas has the line at +2.5. They are begging you to take the Heels. Ryan Fitzgerald kicks the game winner, and Seminole fans rush the field.
Prediction: Florida State 23, UNC 20
Nick Carlisle
Stop the Run: It's not much of a secret but North Carolina is going to want to feed Hampton and pound the rock against an inconsistent Florida State run defense. As shown last week by the Hurricanes, the Tar Heels are not going to need to throw to beat FSU, but they have shown they can when they need to. A couple of gash runs here or there, and they could easily work the clock and leave Tallahassee with a win. Darrell Jackson and Joshua Farmer are going to need to have their conjoint best games to stop this running attack.
Get off the Field: I can't keep banging the turnover drum every week so I'm switching gears to a different issue with this defense and that's getting off the field on third and long situations. Florida State has done a better job down the stretch of the season of being better on first and second down defensively, but boy oh boy have they royally stunk in third and long situations. The execution just has not been good in those situations and long sustained drives could prove to be a killer in a winnable ballgame. If this defense gets off the field when they are supposed to, then Florida State has a chance.Prediction: I want the record to show I wanted to pick Florida State in this game, badly. But their performance at Duke has shown me that you can't even trust the historical guarantees anymore. It's Mack Brown's turn.
Prediction: UNC 20, Florida State 13
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