Florida State (2-9) host archrival Florida (6-5) on Saturday night. The Seminoles are a two-touchdown underdog to the Gators but have a chance to end the season on a winning streak and ensure that Florida doesn't finish the 2024 regular season with a winning record. A win would also give FSU its third straight win over Florida.
The Osceola staff offers its keys to Florida State knocking off its biggest rival and ending the season on a winning note heading into one of the most critical off seasons in program history.
Jerry Kutz
This season is the 30th anniversary of the "Choke at Doak." Can you believe 30 years have passed? If you were in Doak that day, with Florida leading 31-3 going into the 4th quarter, you probably thought the Gators are going to beat the pants off the Seminoles. You may have been among the hordes of garnet and gold head hangers who fled to the parking lot not wanting to suffer further embarrassment. At 31-3 against the arch-rival, it was truly a quitter's paradise. You probably have that same dread in the pit of your stomach as you decide whether to make the trip to Doak this year. Your arch-rival is anxious to settle a score with you on the empty lot where the whole school is gathered.
Do you have the courage to show up, the resolve to take a beating if necessary, and enough pride to land punches while taking a beating? Tough times aren't for weak people and Saturday will be a test for Florida State and its fanbase.
Thirty years ago, a mess of FSU fans left their team to take a beating, to save themselves from further embarrassment. But those fans who stayed witnessed a 28-point 4th quarter comeback that only one other fanbase in collegiate football history has witnessed. And those FSU fans who weathered the moment have proudly worn that badge of courage for 30 years. It started with a do-or-die, 4th and 10, where Danny Kanell hit Kez McCorvey for the first down. Fail there and it may well have been a blowout. But the conversion sparked a roar from the crowd, which was followed by a Warrick Dunn catch and run and a Zack Crockett touchdown, the first of the day. 31-10. Zack's brother Henri stuffed the Gators on 3rd and 1, forcing a punt. And 33 seconds and another McCorvey reception later the game tightened to 31-17. Thanks to Steve Spurrier's foolish play calling, future Heisman Danny Weurffel was intercepted by a diving James Colzie, who is now the head coach at FAMU. Doak went wild. FSU quickly made it 31-24 and suddenly every single person in that stadium, Spurrier included, knew how this game would end.
What changed? Attitude. Toughness. Belief. And some bad coaching on the other sideline. Those will be the keys if Florida State is to win this Saturday. It starts with players, coaches, and fans packing an attitude in their work pail. Florida has improved throughout the year and demonstrates a toughness FSU will have to match physically and emotionally. The Noles will need to make plays to give the crowd and themselves the belief FSU actually could win this game. And I wouldn't hate it if the UF players took the week off and Billy Napier pulled a Spurrier with his play calling. What happened 30 years ago was totally unexpected and historic and, while I won't predict lightning to strike twice, I will pray for a pre-Christmas Miracle.
Prediction: Florida State 31, Florida 31
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Pat Burnham
Fast start: After huge upset wins for Florida over ranked LSU and Ole Miss teams, the Gators might come in feeling and little overconfident facing a team that has one FBS win on the season. Florida may walk into Doak feeling themselves and maybe even a little physically and emotionally drained. It's hard to play in three straight season-making games. The Seminoles need to take advantage of any letdown Florida might be experiencing. So FSU's best chance to beat Florida will be to get off to a fast start and take an early lead. What we know for certain about Florida State is that they cannot play catch up. If the Seminoles can put a touchdown and a couple of field goals on the board in the first half and still be in the game entering the second half, anything could happen, including an improbable set.
Denting DJ: It's not politically correct to say in today's modern world but FSU's best chance to win is to beat up on Florida QB DJ Lagway. In the old days there would be talk about getting him out of the game. We won't go there. However, what I will see is that the FSU defense needs to make sure that Lagway is picking himself up off the ground on Saturday night. His jersey may start the game white, but it needs to be more grass-stained green than clean off the rack by the time the game ends. FSU must be physical with Lagway and have him thinking as much about taking a hit as much as completing a pass or picking up a couple of extra yards. It may be 2024 but football, for now, is still played with shoulder pads and helmets. FSU's defense needs to remind the Florida offense of that.
Rivalry games are funny. You really don't know what is going to happen. Can Florida play at a very high level for the third week in a row? Can FSU ride the adrenaline that a rivalry game provides for four quarters and long enough to overcome its many flaws on the offensive line, running back and wide receiver? Can Luke Kromenhoek and the FSU offense carry momentum into this game against a real defense coming off last week's exhibition game against one of the worst teams at the FCS level? Can the FSU coaching staff out scheme, out adjust and do a better job of motivating their team than Napier and his staff? All of those things will play a factor.
Prediction: Florida 30, Florida State 12
Bob Ferrante
Play with controlled emotion: The danger of a rivalry game, coupled with Senior Day, often creates too much emotion early and a desire to force a play. The Seminoles need to play fired up and with energy but not make the silly mistakes (pre-snap penalties, late hits on the sidelines, etc.). And, yes, if that controlled emotion delivers a takeaway (or two), that’s just what is needed when the Seminoles are a 14-point underdog.
Limit Lagway’s big-play ability: DJ Lagway’s numbers the last two weeks won’t jump off the page: He completed 50 percent of his passes in a win over LSU and 58.8 percent of his passes in a victory against Ole Miss. What he does well is elude pressure, and not often taking off and running, before throwing to the check-down options or firing it deep. Florida’s propensity for chunk plays is what will challenge FSU’s secondary, critical 1-on-1 matchups for corners AZ Thomas and Fentrell Cypress (who is returning from an injury suffered against UNC). They need to win the majority of the matchups.
Can special teams be a difference-maker?: FSU’s most consistent players have been punter Alex Mastromanno and kicker Ryan Fitzgerald. The Seminoles need Mastromanno to pin the Gators deep and force them to build long drives. And while there is a risk-reward equation to be run on fourth-down opportunities, Fitzgerald is as close to a sure thing even from field-goal attempts of 50 or more yards. Mike Norvell should kick and not go for it when in field-goal range.
Prediction: Florida 31, Florida State 13
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Curt Weiler
Make Lagway feel the pressure: DJ Lagway has been quite the freshman sensation for Florida's offense. He's immediately showcased an impressive big-play ability with his cannon of an arm and appears to be in line for a bright future in Gainesville with Billy Napier returning in 2025. However, this will be his first road start, with four of his first five starts coming in the Swamp and the fifth coming in a neutral-site game vs. Georgia. While he's experienced some of what a hostile road atmosphere can offer as a rotational quarterback in games at Tennessee and Mississippi State, this will be his first time leading his team into a true road game. Even in a disappointing season, I have to imagine FSU fans will create quite a hostile atmosphere inside Doak Saturday night. If that's the case and FSU's defense rises to the occasion, it could force the freshman into some mistakes. That would go a long way towards giving FSU hope despite being a pretty significant home underdog.
Don't get in an early hole: Even though FSU faced off against an FCS opponent last week, it was encouraging to see such a complete performance from a team that has utterly struggled in essentially every game this season and almost always found itself in early holes. It's fair to wonder how much confidence that Luke Kromenhoek and the FSU offense took from that performance regardless of the opponent and could bring into this week's game. It would do wonders for the atmosphere and probably the team morale if FSU doesn't fall back into its unfortunate habit of digging itself an early hole it would be unlikely to get out of. If the Seminoles can even keep things close in the early going, it would only boost the confidence of the FSU team and the fans in attendance that they are capable of winning this game.
Prediction: Florida 28, Florida State 17
Charles Fishbein
I used to hear FSU fans always say we can go 1-10 but if that win is against UF the season is a success. Well, FSU sits at 2-8 right now and play UF at home. Win the game and many FSU fans may give Mike Norvell a mulligan. Sometimes just making the other team suffer a little like you makes it better.
Defense, Defense, Defense: For FSU to have any shot at winning this game they must play lights out on defense. They got their first turnover in over a month against Charleston Southern. If they can create some turnovers and sacks, FSU can stay in the game.
Just get to the 4th quarter: What I mean is that FSU needs to keep the game close and try and steal this game. The way they are going to do that is to have some success running the football. If that means using Kromenhoek legs than so be it. FSU needs to keep the game close and give themselves a chance in the 4th quarter.
Trick Plays: If Mike Norvell has some plays that they have not used this year ... Now is the time. Like to see a half back pass. FSU needs to lay it on the line. Try everything. There is nothing to lose. Block a punt. Anything.
I could be dead wrong, but I actually see FSU making this a game. Randy Shannon is a better DC than Fuller so the game plan will be to keep Florida from making the big play on offense. I feel he will also be able to create some pressure from blitzing. Randy will take some chances. This game is a rivalry, it is at home. While FSU is not a very good team the talent gap between the two rivals is not that great. If FSU does not turn the ball over and can win field position this game will be inside the number.
Prediction: Florida 23, Florida State 13
Nick Carlisle
Settle Luke In: Once Luke Kromenhoek got settled in against Charleston Southern, the flow and pace of the offense significantly improved. Yes, I can hear the yelling, "but it's against a bottom-tier FCS school." That is true but that doesn't change the key. This is a big-time rivalry game and getting your true freshman to settle into the game will be crucial in trying to keep pace with Florida. Scheme him up some easy throws, establish the run as best as you can and keep him clean early.
Takeaway From Lagway: We saw last week that indeed it is possible for this Florida State team to take the ball away. The one thing we still have not seen this year from Florida State is a defensive touchdown. While Lagway has been great while he learns the pace of college football, the Gators offense as a whole has had a turnover of some kind in every game except for UCF and LSU. In terms of turnovers, Florida is average to below average in INTs and fumbles lost. Perhaps the defense gets lucky with a forced turnover for the second week in a row.
Prediction: Florida 31, Florida State 17
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