Florida State's first two losses have caused a re-evaluation of expectations. We thought the first of three bye weeks would be well-timed to re-charge for a non-conference matchup against Memphis and then prepare for two, new ACC opponents in Cal and SMU.
Oops. But none of us saw 0-2 coming.
Las Vegas oddsmakers have adjusted the forecast for the Seminoles, projecting an over-under at 5.5 victories in the regular season (it was 9.5 wins going in the summer). Essentially, Vegas thinks FSU will figure some things out but aren't sold on a 6-4 finish in the final 10 games.
If you need a reminder, this is FSU's remaining schedule: Memphis, California, at SMU, Clemson, at Duke, at Miami, North Carolina, at Notre Dame, Charleston Southern, Florida. The Osceola staff gives their opinions on whether the Seminoles will win six games — becoming bowl-eligible — and offer up their projections on the rest of the season.
Patrick Burnham: Two weeks into the season, FSU is 0-2 and based off what it has put on film looks one of the worst teams not only in the ACC but of any in the Power 4 conferences.
If you are basing it off brand, the easy answer is that FSU will get to six or seven wins. If you are basing it off this team's resume, it makes this task a little harder. Based off what we've seen from FSU in two games and the rest of the teams left on the Seminoles' schedule I have four games that I think FSU should win, two 50/50 games and four games that I think they will likely lose.
Predicted wins - SMU, Cal, Duke, Charleston Southern
Predicted Losses - Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame
Predicted Toss Up - Memphis and Florida
Something unexpected will likely happen in a couple of these games.
Memphis wasn't overly impressive running the ball vs. North Alabama. Of the 59 FBS teams to play FCS teams last week the Tigers gained the second fewest yards on the ground. I have the matchup with the Tigers as toss up but that could change in either direction depending on how they look against Troy this week.
Having seen SMU play twice now, including their first loss of the season to BYU on Friday night, as bad as FSU has been, I like their chances vs. the Mustangs. So, let's say FSU wins those two games.
Cal has to come to Tallahassee in September in what likely be a day game. Advantage Seminoles. Duke hasn't looked very good in its first two games, so I would favor FSU there. Charleston Southern is a given.
FSU then needs to find a win over the Gators or one of the teams I have as a predicted loss to get to six wins. And it's too early to try and predict what FSU vs. UF might look like.
Ever the eternal optimist and because UF's situation with Napier looks to be imploding and Mack Brown has never beaten FSU, let's say they get to six wins.
However, after FSU's open weekend and with the rest of their opponents playing this weekend, I will definitely be walking myself through this exercise on Sunday morning.
Jerry Kutz: Over or under on the 5.5 for FSU football in 2024?
That’s the easiest question you can ask a guy who will always see the glass as half full. Give me the over.
I’m choosing based on past results. Mike Norvell’s 2021 team started at 0-4 yet found a way to win five games with a shaky quarterback and a lot less talent. In 2022, the Noles suffered four straight losses yet finished 10-4, so been here and done it before.
Of the 10 games remaining, FSU can win three by simply reducing drops, overthrows and failures to capitalize on turnover opportunities. But to get six or more wins, FSU must make more of those routine plays and significantly improve blocking and tackling. They need to do it quickly as the next three games — Memphis, Cal and SMU — include two of the six most-vulnerable opponents.
Curt Weiler: I'll take the over on 5.5 wins. For one thing, I think the QB move happens at some point. Additionally, I have to believe that Mike Norvell and the coaching staff — as good as they have been the last few years — get more out of this team than we've seen the last few weeks. However, there's no doubt FSU has blown through a lot of its margin for error. In order to get to six wins, FSU will need to either win each of its next three games (Memphis, Cal, SMU) or beat one of North Carolina, Miami, Clemson or Notre Dame to make a bowl. As we see the sample size for those opponents grow, that may instill more confidence in FSU in a few of these games. Take SMU's 18-15 home loss to BYU on Friday night as a 12.5-point favorite.
Bob Ferrante: We never saw ourselves recalibrating FSU's expectations after two games. I had FSU winning exactly 10 games, playing for an ACC football title and competing for a spot in the 12-team playoff. Update: I'll have my crow pan-seared, wrapped in bacon and topped with a bourbon glaze, please. While I've got concerns about leadership and "want to," the Seminoles realistically can win six games. But the margin for error is narrow. FSU would need to defeat Memphis, California, SMU, Duke, Charleston Southern and Florida. I'm curious also what UNC looks like without Max Johnson, who is out for the season due to injury. For now, let's chalk up Clemson, Miami and Notre Dame as likely losses — although the Tigers looked dreadful vs. No. 1 Georgia. I'll go 6-6 with a floor of four wins and a ceiling of seven.
Nick Carlisle: Over 5.5. It seems like a long shot with how this Florida State team has looked the first two weeks but there is a world in which Florida State rattles off three wins in a row and then needs to win three of its next seven games to hit the over and get to a bowl game. Memphis is by no means an easy game. But yet again this is a game that Florida State should win — especially given the lack of a running game that Memphis has shown so far. Cal and SMU are winnable games. Maybe it's homerism, maybe it's endless optimism — but it would be hard for me to think that Florida State doesn't hit the six-win mark just a season after going undefeated in the regular season. Perhaps that sixth win comes down to a battle against Florida in Doak Campbell Stadium on Nov. 30. Wouldn't that be exciting for all the wrong reasons?
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