Florida State seeks to jump-start its season with an upset win over No. 6 Miami on Saturday at 7 p.m. Can the Seminoles' defense slow down Miami's high-flying offense, led by Cam Ward? Can FSU run the ball like it did against Duke or will the run game again be sluggish? Plenty of questions for FSU, which is a 21.5-point underdog.
Bob Ferrante
Mission takeaway: Cam Ward takes risks and often gets away with throws into tight windows. Amazingly, he has just five interceptions in 246 attempts. FSU has just two interceptions (one apiece by Edwin Joseph and Justin Cryer), but also 25 pass breakups. If the Seminoles can turn a few pass breakups into interceptions, FSU can grab momentum and perhaps a shorter field to help the offense get points out of a Miami mistake.
Build confidence: The Seminoles allow mistakes to impact the collective efficiency of the offense. A drop that doesn't allow for successful moments. A missed block that prevents a play from developing. A Brock Glenn turnover when he might be trying to do too much to help the team. FSU needs positive moments early in games to develop confidence and underscore the thought that an upset could happen.
Prediction: Miami 38, Florida State 17
Pat Burnham
Air it out: FSU hasn't run the ball on anybody this year and so it's safe to say they will struggle to run the ball against Miami, which is ranked as the 8th-best defense in the country vs. the run. The perceived weakness on Miami's defense is its ability to stop the pass. And while FSU wide receivers aren't as good as the teams that have thrown the ball well vs. the Hurricanes it might be your only chance to move the ball. You also have two quarterbacks with strong arms that need all the in-game reps they can get. Let them throw it. This will also give Mike Norvell a chance to start the evaluation process of who will go into next season as his starter or if he needs to consider dipping into the portal for a quarterback. I think FSU has to throw 40 times out of the 60 or so offensive plays it will likely run to have a chance at pulling this upset because the Seminoles will likely not be able to consistently run vs. the Hurricanes. And they could be without LT Darius Washington and RB Kam Davis on Saturday which would make running the ball that much harder.
Let it all hang out: At 1-6 and as a 21.5-point underdog you don't really have anything to lose. Nobody expects you to win. Be unconventional, break some of your tendencies on offense and defense from a schematic standpoint. Take some chances in the way of fake punts, fake field goals, trick plays, aggressive fourth-down decisions, etc. Don't leave anything sitting in your playbook on either side of the ball.
Early Momentum: For Florida State to have a realistic chance they will need to get some early momentum by getting a couple of scores on the board to either take the lead or show it might be able to hang with the Hurricanes like Cal did earlier this year in a game they weren't expected to be competitive in.
Cam Can't Run: Miami QB Cam Ward is going to find success in the passing game but what you can't do is allow him to beat you with his legs. FSU needs to have discipline with its rush lanes, and they must keep him inside the pocket. You can run so far upfield with your pass rush that he is able to move up in the pocket. And when Adam Fuller brings the blitz, it has to get home.
Prediction: Miami 49, FSU 18
Jerry Kutz
My weekly keys to victory this year have been simple — block, tackle, throw, catch, minimize penalties — but this week I'm going simpler yet: Don't beat yourself. On a podcast with Canes County, the host, Marcus Benjamin, asked me what team has given the Seminoles the most trouble this year. My answer was Florida State. We have met the enemy, and it is us. Florida State's only chance against Miami is to eliminate the self-inflicted wounds, particularly on offense.
Eliminate turnovers and dropped passes and minimize penalties to keep the ball away from Cam Ward and the Miami offense. While FSU's defense has improved over the past few weeks, particularly in the redzone, they'll be challenged more in this game than in any other with Cam Ward's ability to extend plays and the Hurricane running game. FSU's defensive line, especially the interior two must neutralize the middle and the ends have to contain the edge against the run and the pass. I like the FSU secondary against UM receivers but not if Cam Ward has extended seconds to find a target. Whether that's a blitz or a spy I'll leave up to defensive coordinator Adam Fuller, but they can't allow Ward to roam free. The Noles go in a 21-point underdog, so who am I to argue with Vegas money or Artificial Intelligence?
Prediction: Miami 33, Florida State 13
Column: There's a process to evaluating head coaches, assistants
Mark Salva
This game and this week has got me a little nostalgic. I love FSU. My experience as a player and a coach in the late 80's and early 90's was so positive. Spending time with my teammate Pat Carter on Seminole Sidelines on Thursday, talking about his book and about our time at FSU really reminded me how special FSU really is. And I want that for our current players in the worst way. I never went through a period like this at FSU (although I did when I coached at South Carolina), so I don't know what it's like to go into a game where FSU was a 21 point underdog. FSU should always have a chance against anyone in the country, but if I'm trying to be objective here and not be a fan. It doesn't look good. But any given Saturday, right? Rivalry game, throw out the records, right? So what's the path to victory? Here is what I think is a realistic one:
Maximum Defense: The defense has to put it all together. The defense has to believe that the offense will produce points and play 4 quarters of maximum output. Start with presenting problems to the Hurricanes CFB leading offense and Cam Ward. One of my criticisms the last few weeks is that Adam Fuller's defense doesn't seem to present a whole lot of schematic problems for opposing offenses. FSU tends to be very vanilla until the red zone. Create uncertainty in the mind of the opposing offense and maybe FSU's defense can produce more negative plays, and even generate some turnovers and (gasp) even produce some points. There is an element of risk in this, as FSU is prone to coverage busts and open gaps in the running game and maybe that's why. But that's what practice is for.
Mitigate Cam Ward: To quote Scott Van Pelt: "you can't stop him, but you have to contain him" The Cane QB is playing at a very high level. He appears confident and unflappable. I fear his ability to extend plays and avoid sacks more so than his jaunts down the field. Can FSU minimize this? Keep him contained, and stay with receivers? Especially crucial in the red zone. Hold them to FG attempts. Eliminate the back-breaking explosives. Do this and maybe FSU can keep them under 24 points.
Eliminate the bad plays on offense: By a lot of objective measures, FSU has pretty much the worst offense in the P4. So really, there is no one thing I could point to that will change that seven games into the season. But a good place to start is eliminating the bad plays that plague this offense. Start with penalties. No dead ball or procedure penalties. That's easy. That's discipline. Holding/blocking in the back penalties are usually a result of poor technique or lack of effort. Refine these things so when a good play happens, it's not brought back. Take care of the football. Have a coordinated blitz plan. Communication and anticipation on this are key. And scheme some easy throws, especially on 1st down that can keep us ahead of the chains. Be creative in the running game. That's a lot, but there's a lot that has gone wrong on this side of the ball. Find a way to get to 30 points. It's a big ask, and hope is not a strategy.
Prediction: Miami 45, Florida State 17
Curt Weiler
Swing the turnover pendulum: It’s probably going to take quite a bit of luck for FSU to be in this game with Miami into the fourth quarter. One easy way the Seminoles could make that happen would be for the turnover gods to look favorably upon them Saturday night. In seven games, FSU’s defense has just two takeaways (a pair of interceptions). ESPN’s David Hale had a great thread on Twitter this week about that being about more than just bad turnover luck. But the fact remains that FSU’s defense having 25 passes broken up to two interceptions is an unlucky ratio. And while Cam Ward has been great this season, he’s at times had a knack for exceptionally poor decisions leading to turnovers. If that happens and FSU takes advantage of a few shorter fields, it feels like the Seminoles’ best path to an upset.
Wake up the offense: Miami’s defense isn’t exactly entering Saturday’s rivalry game riding high. In the last three games against Virginia Tech, Cal and Louisville (who have a combined record of 11-10 this season), the Hurricanes have allowed a combined 117 points and at least 34 points in each of those three games. Now, we haven’t seen much from FSU’s offense, which has scored 20+ points once this season in its very first game, that leads one to believe the Seminoles will be able to take advantage of that. But given the recent form Miami has been, the opportunities seem likely to be there at least occasionally. This would be quite the time for FSU’s offense to level up and feels like a requirement of FSU pulling off the upset considering Miami ranks second nationally in scoring offense at 48.3 points per game.
Prediction: Miami 38, Florida State 13
Charles Fishbein
Take the first shot and don't get knocked down and out: Miami is going to try and do what Pittsburgh did to Syracuse last night. They will come out and hot and try and finish the game early. FSU needs to try and keep the game close and get this game to the 4th quarter. Miami will start to feel pressure if the game is close late.
Mission Takeaway: FSU has a mission to create turnovers in practice. For some reason that has not translated to games. For FSU to have any shot at winning this game they must force Miami to turn the ball over 3-4 times. If FSU does not win the turnover battle, I don't see how this game is close.
Run the ball: FSU needs to play ball control, and their best defense is finding an offense this week. FSU needs to keep the ball, control the clock and limit how many times Cam Ward touches the ball. The more shots Cam gets the odds get worse for FSU.
Trick Plays: Whatever plays FSU has worked on during spring football and this fall pull them all out. There needs to be a half back pass, wildcat, flea flicker. FSU only shot is to create something. This is one game you have to let it all hang out.
I had a good friend call me last night and tell me, "You never know, Fish." It's a rivalry game and anything can happen. This is true most of the time. In this game there are always games that go sideways for one team. FSU has not been good this year. The Seminoles are 1-6. Miami on the other hand is 7-0 and have the best player (Cam Ward) in the country. FSU has a chance but not a very good one. Miami is able to score over 30+ even in their bad games. FSU has yet to reach 21 points this season. Miami strengths are FSU weaknesses. I don't expect this one to be close.
Prediction: Miami 48, Florida State 13
Nick Carlisle
Win the turnover battle: I would be heavily surprised if I'm not in lockstep with the rest of the Osceola staff this week in talking about turnovers after the turnovers from last week almost certainly lost Florida State the game. A turnover and short field could absolutely do wonders for this Florida State team — and despite Ward's greatness this season — the turnovers have still been a chink in the armor. On the other hand, if Duke's defensive line was presenting problems for a (1) banged up and (2) poorly performing offensive line, the Hurricanes' defensive line should dominate this game, forcing fumbles and forcing Brock into some bad throws. Win the turnover battle but at the very least, keep them to a minimum.
No stupid penalties: Normally it would go without question that a Mike Norvell-led team will avoid the antics and stupid penalties that come with playing in a high pressure rivalry environment. But this is a bad football team that has shown more than once that it will do things bad football teams do (i.e after the whistle unsportsmanlike). If Florida State is to pull off the upset, absolutely no stupid after the whistle penalties that put you in holes.
Prediction: As much as there is a chance that this winds up a complete blow out, I think this game looks a lot like the Clemson game did. A game that Florida State should get smoked in but mathematically has a chance to win heading into halftime. Offensive ineptitude overshadows some good defense — winding up in roughly comfortable two touchdown win for the Hurricanes.
Miami 35, Florida State 17
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